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2020-09-09 Home Front: Politix
Election Prediction Model That Has Been Correct 25 of the Last 27 Elections Says Trump Will Win in a Landslide
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Posted by Besoeker 2020-09-09 00:50|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [6479 views ]  Top

#1 Just as Biden was challenged by Sanders and you don't see a whole lot of enthusiasm for Biden either.
Posted by Abu Uluque 2020-09-09 11:50||   2020-09-09 11:50|| Front Page Top

#2 And then the lefties will curl up into a ball and weep?

Don't hold yer breath.
Posted by Bobby 2020-09-09 12:25||   2020-09-09 12:25|| Front Page Top

#3 They are just beginning to cheat and they have been preparing for years.
Posted by magpie 2020-09-09 14:05||   2020-09-09 14:05|| Front Page Top

#4 (Most of this is shamelessly paraphrased from a private blog post that I do not have permission to publicly credit because the author does not want his/her name due to possible job reprisals, but said its OK to put the arguments out there. Electoral votes in bold). Note that Biden starts with 177 per the article.

I seriously doubt these states will go Trump - too far gone to the left in the cities to be overcome by the rural and far suburban areas:

Oregon 7 (Portland and old hippies), Colorado 9 (too many California transplants and votes concentrated in the Boulder-Denver corridor), New Mexico 5 (like Colorado too many Cali transplants and local hippes), Virginia 13 (beltway liberals and Richmond engulf the conservative rest of the state in the popular vote)
= +34 Biden

New Hampshire 4, Maine 4 split 2 state, 1 each CD, 1 going D for sure, 3 up for grabs. Depends on NY City Refugees, and their impact on the polls to offset the state's native GOP and conservative rural populations. I consider these 2 to be questionable, but roll the dice. Split the difference? +5 Trump NH/1ME +3 Biden (Split ME)

This is where the big swing may hit, and where it was the most hidden the last time: Minnesota 10, Wisconsin 10. All the BLM/Antifa riots may have pushed these into Trump. Especially in the rural/suburban areas to north and outside Minneapolis, and wisconsin outside of Madison. The Wisconsin Dem Gov may have single handedly pushed more people into the GOP side in Wisconsin than anyone else in the nation. Minnesota not far behind. Backlash may be the theme in these 2 states, which is why Hiden-Barass is paying a lot of attention there now, and all of a sudden press coverage of the riots has stopped (funny how that happened).

Split +10 Trump WI +10 Biden MN

Democrat mismanagement may have finally sunk in on the carpetbaggers in North Carolina 15 too, as the continued lockdown is now seen to be unnecessarily strict, and the economy suffering needlessly. Plus Trump won here in 16 Trump +15

Trump's economic "America First" policies might have won over Michigan 16, and the industrialized parts of Ohio to provide margin there. Trump +16

Rural, Retirees, and Mormons, Vs Unions and California transplants = Arizona (more retirees)11, Nevada (not enough Mormons in the N to offeset union and vote fraud) 5
Trump +11, Biden +5

These I can see, easily going Trump, I didnt know they were in play: Nebraska (all 5), Ohio 18 (despite Cleveland)
Trump +23

So this is where the fight comes down to:
Pennsylvania, Florida.

Florida the Hispanic (Cuban) vote is swinging heavily into Trump according to latest info. And the GOP has not screwed up since it got elected in spite of Dem/Press efforts to portray otherwise.

PA? 20 It comes down to whether the western part of the state can offset Philly and the liberal enclaves there. Trumps "America First" might be helping especially around Pittsburgh. This is truly a tossup

Basically if Biden gets CO, NV & NM and the northeast plus VA, Trump holds onto the solid south + Arizona, Ohio and Florida, then all Trump needs to do is get just ONE of the following: MN, WI, MI, PA.

Thats right, Biden can win 3 of those 4, say, PA, MN, MI, but loses WI and Trump has the electoral votes to win. If trump wins PA + MI, he can even win the election without Florida.

The electoral math stacks up well.
Posted by Theager Borgia1057 2020-09-09 18:08||   2020-09-09 18:08|| Front Page Top

#5 Basically, if Trump flips Michigan, he will win the election. If he flips Wisconsin, he is likely to win. If he flips both? Guarantee he wins regardless of PA. If he flips MI WI *and* MN? He will win even without PA *and* Florida.
Posted by Theager Borgia1057 2020-09-09 18:13||   2020-09-09 18:13|| Front Page Top

#6 If you do the probabilities & combinations of the above you see that Trump's odds are not 50/50; more like 80/20.

Not to get complacent - GOTV etc got it - but this explains the Democrats' recent hysteria.

They are truly fucked, and they know it.
Posted by Snaviling Darling of the Poles3766 2020-09-09 19:32||   2020-09-09 19:32|| Front Page Top

#7 I think Trump easily wins a relatively honest election with a relatively well-informed voting population that doesn't allow aesthetics to determine its decisions (Orange Man Crude!)

Is that what we'll have?

Stay tuned.
Posted by charger 2020-09-09 19:40||   2020-09-09 19:40|| Front Page Top

#8 All comes down to black vote / turnout.

Dems cannot win if blacks do not vote 90% or more for Biden.
Not possible under any scenario.

Ain't gonna happen.
Posted by Whasing Gretle5841 2020-09-09 20:00||   2020-09-09 20:00|| Front Page Top

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