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2012-10-11 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Free Syrian Army wants to whack Hezbollah -- in Beirut
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Posted by Steve White 2012-10-11 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [10800 views ]  Top

#1 Don't get your hopes high just yet ...

A reminder ...

Posted by JosephMendiola 2012-10-11 00:36||   2012-10-11 00:36|| Front Page Top

#2 Don't get your hopes high just yet ...

Total war throughout the region, down to the last man standing. It would leave us one drone-zap away from peace in the Middle East, something that hasn't happened since... I dunno, the Pleistocene. Sure, it's fantasy. But a man can dream!
Posted by SteveS 2012-10-11 03:29||   2012-10-11 03:29|| Front Page Top

#3 SteveS, the chief foreign correspondent of The Telegraph believes Syria and Turkey are about to go at it hammer and tongs:

If anyone believed that Syria’s bloodshed would stay inside the country’s borders, the events of the last week should have put them right. I’m in southern Turkey, near the frontier with Syria, and this area feels like the new front line of the battle against Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Convoys of Turkish army vehicles ply the roads down to the border and, quietly, civilians are trickling away to safer areas.

The reason is simple: cross-border artillery and mortar bombardments have become daily events.
If another family dies in similar circumstances, the Turkish government will come under immense popular pressure to respond with full force. If the Akçakale killings were to be repeated, I would not be surprised if Turkey retaliated with a strike by troops as well as artillery, possibly accompanied with air power. The country’s parliament has authorised the government to do exactly that if necessary. In other words, Turkey and Syria are close to war. The two countries have been waging a covert, undeclared war since the onset of the uprising against Assad, with Turkey supplying the Syrian rebels and Damascus hitting back by fuelling the Kurdish insurgency inside its neighbour. But we could be close to the moment when this shadow war becomes a formal, cross-border conflict.
Posted by trailing wife 2012-10-11 08:18||   2012-10-11 08:18|| Front Page Top

#4 Hezbollah has a big supply depot near Madaya very near Lebanon. There are FSA forces in the vicinity and they've come close to capturing the supply depot a few times.

Latest rumor is that Hezbollah is now providing personal security for Assad since there have been some defections and a few people were 'discharged' for suspected rebel sympathy.
Posted by lord garth 2012-10-11 10:00||   2012-10-11 10:00|| Front Page Top

#5 And Iran joins in when?
Posted by AlanC 2012-10-11 10:02||   2012-10-11 10:02|| Front Page Top

#6 AlanC

Iran has forces in Syria and some have already been killed. The Iran role will be constrained somewhat because of the language problem and because Iran is a bit concerned that if (or when) they have a heavy presence in Syria, it will result in some conflict (possibly some red on red deadly force) between Hezbollah and the Iranian forces (since Arabs don't like taking personal orders from Persians among other things). Its better for Iran if the Mullahs give orders to Hezbollah HQ and Hezbollah orders their forces.

Lots of different types of popcorn.
Posted by lord garth 2012-10-11 10:18||   2012-10-11 10:18|| Front Page Top

#7 #5 And Iran joins in when?

Iranian munitions were turning up in Afghanistan at least two years ago, possibly long before.
Posted by Besoeker 2012-10-11 10:22||   2012-10-11 10:22|| Front Page Top

#8 Looking at this with the context of the Turkey thread as well (not to mention the nuke issues) and wondering how much overt action there will be? Covert is a given and known but the permutations and combinations of ethnic and religious enmity in that region just boggle my mind.
Posted by AlanC 2012-10-11 11:03||   2012-10-11 11:03|| Front Page Top

#9 Perhaps his mother loved him... She could have been just jivin'
Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2012-10-11 11:23||   2012-10-11 11:23|| Front Page Top

#10 You know, if the Syrian Rebs can't get the Madaya supply depot there's another way to take care of it. And on that note, I join Steve: Oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please...
Posted by Charles 2012-10-11 11:50||   2012-10-11 11:50|| Front Page Top

#11 FSA is dreaming. Syria will be gone soon.
Posted by Raider 2012-10-11 15:29||   2012-10-11 15:29|| Front Page Top

#12 ...Syria and Turkey are about to go at it hammer and tongs

I'm calling for the whole region to go up in flames. Everyone has little proxy armies in their neighbor's countries and/or designs on a patch of land just across the border. The whole mess is just one archduke away from being a mini-WWI. Only this time the Great Powers (can we even say that now?) won't be involved since they either don't really give a flip or can't afford to get involved.

A little in-depth from Spengler here.
From the final 'graph: The bad news is that none of the major countries in the region can be kept from falling, and once fallen, they cannot be put back together again. The good news is that the bad news is not so bad. As long as the calamity is restricted to the region, and prospective malefactors are prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons, the impact on the rest of the world will be surprisingly small.
Posted by SteveS 2012-10-11 19:49||   2012-10-11 19:49|| Front Page Top

23:27 Eric Jablow
23:19 Grunter
23:09 Secret Asian Man
22:43 lord garth
22:06 Grunter
22:05 Glenmore
21:25 trailing wife
21:18 Bill Clinton
20:47 Frank G
20:46 Frank G
20:42 Frank G
20:40 Unang Omeans6347
20:32 rjschwarz
20:31 rjschwarz
20:31 Ydaerb
20:21 Nioj Eht 3.1
20:03 Barbara
20:02 Raider
19:59 Barbara
19:52 Raider
19:49 Raj
19:49 SteveS
19:32 Raj
19:30 Raj

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