Article

2013-12-03 China-Japan-Koreas

Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years

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Posted by Besoeker 2013-12-03 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11125 views ] Top

#1 Financial shenanigans, societal breakdown and environmental degradation may disrupt Chinese / USA society long before it comes to that.

Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2013-12-03 00:37|| 2013-12-03 00:37|| Front Page Top

#2 Not likely all this, but they sure want to steak in some authority over the region.

If you think about China's History, they have been in peril from their Neighbors for quite some time. But again, Taiwan is China proper...

Posted by newc 2013-12-03 00:47|| 2013-12-03 00:47|| Front Page Top

#3 Unfortunately, unlike the US-vs-USSR I don't see "post-US" wannbe, "Mahanist" China's cold war agz Japan in NE Asia lasting as long nor refraining from war.

Pert-described Chinese "Mahanism" + "Cold War" are NOT mutually inclusive, AS MAHANISM = typically involves Aggressive Diplomacy, MilPol Brinkmanship, + Mil Actions ranging from brief Clashes between troops to Limited/Restricted Wars lasting weeks or months.

In the modern era, LIMITED WARS = NOW INCLUDES LIMITED NUCLEAR WAR OR LIMITED TACTICAL NUCLEAR WAR.

* ION WORLD NEWS > [China Daily = People's Daily Online] EXPERTS STRESS THAT [1943] CAIRO DECLARATION TERMS SHALL BE CARRIED OUT, as per 1945 Potsdam Declaration + 1972 Sino-Japanese Joint Statement on carrying out Article 8 of Cairo Declaration.

D *** NG IT - SHALL, SHALL - SPELLED SHAAWL - SHALL!

RELATED BIG NEW NETWORK = JAPAN MUST ABIDE BY THE CAIRO DECLARATION.

RELATED GLOBAL TIMES = EXPERTS SAY CAIRO DECLARATION ESTABLISHES POST-WAR [WW2 =1945] INTERNATIONAL ORDER.

Artics above broadly mean or infers that Japan must return Taiwan, littoral islands around Taiwan [Pescadores], + Okinawa AKA Ryukyus to mainland China + its lawful No-Longer-Chiang-Kai-Shek/Nationalist = Commie Govt therein.

Again, TAIWAN = China's perceived equivalent of "Pearl Harbor/Norfolk HQS" [Fleet, USDOD] in the Pacific.

* IDRW.ORG > US VQ-1 SQUADRON IS AN OLD FRIEND OF CHINA.

Ironically, VQ-1 is also known as per GUAM = caught in possible FUTURE "NO MAN'S LAND" BETWEEN CHINA''S + US' HALVES OF THE PACIFIC.

* TOPIX > [News.com.AU = Global Times] EDITORIAL: DECLARATION OF AIR ZONE IS A SIGN BEIJING THINKS RISKS OF CONFLICT [mil confrontation + lict = war] IS RISING.

* GUARDIAN.UK > US CALLS ON CHINA TO RESCIND AIR ZONE TO AVOID JAPAN CONFRONTATION.

versus

* TOPIX, FREEREPUBLIC > [The Atlantic via Twitter] REPORT: WHITE HOUSE BLAMES STATE DEPARTMENT FOR CHINA AIR DEFENCE ZONE KOWTOW.

POTUS Bammer at odds wid US SecState Jaaawhn
"Presidential" Kerry - ditto as per Japan Ambassador "Sweet Caroline" Kennedy???

* SAME > [SCMP] BEIJING'S AIR DEFENCE ZONE AIMED AT MAKING TOKYO NEGOTIATE, ANALYSTS SAY.

* WAFF > BLOGGER THREAD: AMERICAN BASES IN JAPAN + SOUTH KOREA [How long will they remain?].

RELATED SAME > GUAM-BASED B-52S SENT INTO CHINA'S NEW AIR DEFENCE ZONE BY US WAS DETECTED + MONITORED BY CHINESE SATELLITES AND RADARS AT TAKEOFF.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2013-12-03 01:45|| 2013-12-03 01:45|| Front Page Top

#4 More ...

* GLOBAL TIMES > EDITORIAL: US-JAPAN CANNOT STOP THE RISE OF CHINA AS A FIRST-CLASS POWER.

* INDIAN DEFENCE FORUM > [WantChinaTimes] BEIJING AIR DEFENCE ZONE ALLOWS PLA TO PENETRATE MIYAKO WATERWAYS, between Miyako + Okinawa, + ultimately to begin challenging US dominance in WESTPAC as denoted in HK-BASED YAZHOU ZHOUKAN NEWSPAPER.

China ADIZ planned since 2012 Party Congress in Beijing.

* GLOBE-N-MAIL.UK > ENVOY [Amb. Ma Keqing] SAYS CHINA HAS RIGHT TO AIR DEFENCE ZONE IN ANOTHER DISPUTED AREA.

Repor the SCS + Yellow Sea - NOKOR to be hemmed in by overlord China???

* CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > US + SOUTH KOREA ENTERING ADIZ IS OKAY, BUT NOT JAPAN, SAYS PRC.

* SAME > CHINA ALREADY A SUPERPOWER: SINGAPOREAN MINISTER.

* SAME > US-CHINA AIR STANDOFF COULD ROIL US TREASURY MARKETS, iff China + aligned choose to stop lending to the US in retaliation.

* SAME > CHINA HAS BEGUN ASSERTING OWNERSHIP OF THOUSANDS OF SHIPWRECKS IN SOUTH CHINA SEA | CHINESE TERRITORIAL STRIFE HITS [Underwater = Ocean] ARCHAEOLOGY.

* WASHINGTON TIMES > GHOSTS OF EAST ASIA + MORE US CONCESSIONS, TO CHINA THIS TIME.

Bammer "red lines" start to implode in East Asia.

* WORLD MILITARY FORUM > VOICE OF RUSSIA: EXPERTS PREDICT CHINA WILL WIN "WAR OF NERVES" AGZ JAPAN, USA IN AIR ZONE ROW.

* SAME > CHINA'S "ARC OF FREEDOM AND PROSPERITY" STRATEGY DEPENDS ON CHINA HAVING DOMINATING CONTROL OR MAJOR ECONOMIC INFLUENCE IN "FIRST ISLAND CHAIN". IMPORTANCE OF THE "SECOND ISLAND CHAIN", I.E. GUAM-SAIPAN LINE, TO CHINA'S ABILITY AS A GLOBAL/INTERNATIONAL SUPERPOWER TO ASSERT UNILATERAL AUTHORITY + MILITARY POWER.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2013-12-03 02:13|| 2013-12-03 02:13|| Front Page Top

#5 And here I thought they're going to conquer Africa.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2013-12-03 02:20|| 2013-12-03 02:20|| Front Page Top

#6 To newc

Taiwxn was (almost) never Chinesee.

Original population is Australasian not Chinese.

Somewhat in the fourteenth or fifteenth century Japanese and Chinese pirates discovered it and bagan foundering in its waters. But this was not China.

Then came... the Portuguese. First real discoverers and colonists. But somewhat later the crown of Portugal was inherited by the king of Spain and the Spain didn't pay much attention to Portuguese colonies so the Dutch came and took Taiwan from the Hispano-Portuguese. It was the Dutch who introduced the first Chinese laborers in the island.

Then the Ming dinasty fell to the Mandchus and many Ming loyalistas fled to Taiwan. After a time they expelled the Dutch. For the first time Taiwan was in Chinese hands. But these were not China's hands. About twenty years later Taiwan fell to the Mandchis so first time in history Taiwna was in China's hands. However these were not Chinese hands but Madchorians hands. About 250 years later China had to give it to Japan. Sixty years later Japan lost WWII and the Allied powers to gave back Taiwan to Chine. However nobody had asked the Taiwnanese and in fact they were fiercely opposed to it. So the Chinese just machine gunned the demonstrators. Notice that: 1945 was the first time when Tawian was part of a Chinese China. Then in 1949 China fell in Communist hands and nationalists fled to Taiwan much to the displeasure of the Taiwanese. AFAIK most "Old Taiwanese" ie the 85% of Taiwanese who descend from people who came before 1949 will tell you they are not Chinese. And of course this is still truer between the 2% Australasian minority.

So Taiwna is not VHinese but Taiwanes. If any it should be Portuguese. :-)

Posted by JFM 2013-12-03 07:20|| 2013-12-03 07:20|| Front Page Top

#7 Delusional grand idea of a insane leadership. Bits and pieces perhaps but never anything close to this. Raw materials alone major issue. Aging population. Too vast an area to manage now. How long a strong economy?. Money drain on military. Those with money are leaving now. No religion no hope. Just faith in government. Look at North Korea. You can't export or grow your country inside or out on death. Look at Islam. They are failing now. Communism,Socialism and Islam are dead ends. These things come back again and again and the end is always the same. Then in history how many wars has China won?. Paper dragon on cocaine. Their own people are blades of grass to them. Russia will not go so easy. This is a front Germany lost in their war. The winter will kill the aggressor. Then internal rebellion as well. Putin is having a hard enough time holding things together himself.

Posted by Dale 2013-12-03 07:47|| 2013-12-03 07:47|| Front Page Top

#8 Then in history how many wars has China won?

It's sort of like saying how many wars has Europe won? We talking dynasties here Han, Tang, Song, Yuan (Mongol), Ming, Manchu. Like all major nations they had expansion (often through war and conquest), consolidation, contraction, and internal upheaval. Each dynasty would try to legitimize itself by 'inheriting' the mandate of heaven and thus the authentic successor to its predecessor as the embodiment of the Chin.

It was a Tang conquest expedition that beat the heck out of the Parthians (the people who beat the Romans at Carrhae and made Carssus' head into a goblet). Their goal was to conquer Rome and thought the Parthians were them. However, when the Parthians explained that how far away Rome really was, the Tang retired back to their western borders.

Up until the 17th-18th Century period, the Chinese were probably the most organized and technologically proficient civilization on the globe before the less organized European states got their act together. Their xenophobic culture and its inherent hubris, curse by the natural corruption of large bureaucracies, set them up for their fall when they finally were confronted by an adversary which the large central Asian divide could no longer contain. That xenophobia and hubris were only submersed by the ascendent Europeans. After a couple runs by the Europeans at cultural suicide in the 20th Century, that is all now vanishing and the ethnocentric attitude of the Middle Kingdom once again comes to the stage.

Posted by Procopius2k 2013-12-03 08:38|| 2013-12-03 08:38|| Front Page Top

#9 In the seventeenth century the oh so teccnically profic,net Chinese were completely unable to proiduce a single ship who had a chance agaisnt a mere frigate, not to mention a ship of the line.

Alkso we have been told about a big Chinese expedition who was supposed to cross the Pacific ans discover America before Colomb. THe fact is that China had n ot been able to discovber Taiwan.

About astronomy, in 17th Century Europe already had had Copernic and Keple and had discovered the speed of light was finite. Ceramics was bout the only thoing whereChina had a technologiaclk lead and this was shrinking fast booth in Saxony and in France.

Posted by JFM 2013-12-03 11:24|| 2013-12-03 11:24|| Front Page Top

#10 THe fact is that if you think in the huge number of Chinese, thus its potential for having far more scientists and inventors tha Europe the unavoidable conclusion is that Chinas civilization sucked at producing them.

Posted by JFM 2013-12-03 11:27|| 2013-12-03 11:27|| Front Page Top

#11 Sure will fight in the next 50 years and the goal is to gain back the Chinese empire at the height of territory. Likely the same map is in use by the Chinese Defense Forces to instruct the troops on the "desired borders of China 2025."

Posted by Au Auric 2013-12-03 12:00|| 2013-12-03 12:00|| Front Page Top

#12 And yet the Chinese had already discovered East Africa well before the Europeans discovered America. Read up on Zheng_He. The Spanish send three small ships to explore, the Chinese sent a fleet. The cultural problem with the Chinese and technology is similar to some modern political theories today. They sought 'balance' or 'harmony' not innovation. Whether Tao or Confucius, it was social order (control) over the chaos and friction of change. The record of Chinese 'first' are there, but they seldom if ever got around to exploit them as others did.

The advantage the Europeans had was in their competition of war and politics. The tribal/nation state resisted the amalgamation that the Chinese had attained on several epochs. They had to look for advantages, exploits, and niches to one up each other. In doing so, they fueled the innovations and changes.

Posted by Procopius2k 2013-12-03 12:15|| 2013-12-03 12:15|| Front Page Top

#13 The title comes from the original pro-PRC Chinese. "is sure to" in the title can also be translated as "must" or "it is necessary to."

This does not look promising.

Posted by Frozen Al 2013-12-03 12:41|| 2013-12-03 12:41|| Front Page Top

#14 No better time for expansionist dreams than when the former power is telling the world, "We're creating a perfect vacuum here!"

Posted by Bobby 2013-12-03 12:56|| 2013-12-03 12:56|| Front Page Top

#15 completely ignoring the collapse of the Chinese economy and our repudiation of their held debt

Posted by Frank G 2013-12-03 13:13|| 2013-12-03 13:13|| Front Page Top

#16 One word: blockade.

Posted by Pappy 2013-12-03 14:34|| 2013-12-03 14:34|| Front Page Top

#17 This one concept by China is what will probably drive both Japan and South Korea to increase their military capability, and will probably drive both to acquire both nuclear warheads and the means to deliver them to the Chinese mainland -- possibly in large quantities. Japan is already regretting its decision to shut down its nuclear reactors, and will probably quietly restore them in the coming year. The behavior of the United States under Barrack Hussein Obama has also convinced all our Southeast Asian allies that they're more or less on their own, and need to prepare accordingly.

The one thing the US could do that would cause China the most heartache would be to gift the Japanese Naval Self Defense Force with the retired USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier. The Japanese would totally dismantle it, do a cost-benefit analysis, and have a much-improved, possibly nuclear-propelled version in the water in two to three years.

China still feels humiliated by Japanese conquest of much of its territory during WWII. They are out for revenge, as well as territorial consolidation. A strong US presidency would curb their aggressiveness substantially.

Posted by Old Patriot 2013-12-03 14:55|| 2013-12-03 14:55|| Front Page Top

#18 The Chinese claim to Taiwan comes from teh civil war and the Republican Chinese fleeing to Taiwan and basically taking it over. It is undestandable that they would be confused over the matter I guess. The world called Taiwan China for half a century after all.

Posted by rjschwarz 2013-12-03 14:56|| 2013-12-03 14:56|| Front Page Top

#19 The article is nonsense, China gains no benefit from any of those wars (except perhaps pride when it comes to Taiwan).

I think more likely is the Chinese civil war which will come if their economy doesn't start charging along again.

I also think more likely is Chinese intervention in a North Korean collapse. If nothing to keep the refugee situation in control but proably more to ensure the end game of such a collapse is to their liking.

Since China has done little to get themselves off of oil they are still strategically very vunerable to oil disruptions. Any of these wars would cause massive economic havoc in China.

Posted by rjschwarz 2013-12-03 15:03|| 2013-12-03 15:03|| Front Page Top

#20 After the victories of the previous five wars by 2050, China will make territorial claims based on the domain of Qing Dynasty (similar way by making use of the domain of the Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia) and to make propaganda campaigns favoring such claims. Efforts should also be made to disintegrate Russia again.

In the days of Old China, Russia has occupied around one hundred and sixty million square kilometre of lands, equivalent to one-sixth of the landmass of current domain of China. Russia is therefore the bitter enemy of China. After the victories of previous five wars, it is the time to make Russians pay their price.

There must be a war with Russia. Though at that time, China has become an advanced power in navy, army, air and space forces, it is nevertheless the first war against a nuclear power. Therefore, China should be well prepared in nuclear weapons, such as the nuclear power to strike Russia from the front stage to the end. When the Chinese army deprives the Russians ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield. They can do nothing but to hand over their occupied lands and to pay a heavy price to their invasions.

For a guy who seems pretty obsessed about history, he doesn't seem to know anything about *Russian* history. That "[Then] They can do nothing but to hand over their... lands" concept has been tried, oh, I don't know - three times in the last 300 years? Hasn't worked yet.

Posted by Secret Master 2013-12-03 15:24|| 2013-12-03 15:24|| Front Page Top

#21 In WW1 it worked: the Germans were eventually able to force Russia into a state of civil war, where the Germans were able to pick a winner

In WW2... it almost worked. except that FDR gave them a huge blank check for lots and lots of stuff from a Detroit that _isn't there any more_.

Who could stop the Chinese if they're the only ones left with factories?

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2013-12-03 15:56|| 2013-12-03 15:56|| Front Page Top

#22 During the Cold War, to be a Global Superpower or Great Power meant "leading from the front".

To paraph Mel Gibson in "WE WERE SOLDIERS ONCE" > "The Leader is always the first off, + the last one to leave".

Compare the above to the Bammer's + OWG Globalist "Leading from Behind".

D *** NG IT, "LEADING FROM BEHIND" ="WHEN THE GOING GETS TOUGH/BULLETS FLY + BOMBS EXPLODE, YOU GUYS CAN GO FIRST AKA I'M THE FIRST ONE TO GET OFF THE SHIP".

"WOMEN, CHILDREN, ELDERLY + DISABLED FIRST"? - WHOSE THE WALKING CLUSTERFUCK THAT CAME UP WID THAT IDEA"!

[ASSORTED CRUISE SHIP CAPTAINS here].

Posted by JosephMendiola 2013-12-03 20:40|| 2013-12-03 20:40|| Front Page Top

#23 * ION TOPIX > [Washington Times] THE DANGER OF LEADING FROM BEHIND.

* SAME > [Examiner] GETTING CHINA'S ATTENTION: A NUCLEAR-ARMED JAPAN + SOUTH KOREA.

Actually, 'tis more correct to say a Nuke-armed Nippon + ROK, etal. as complemented wid US-led Missle Defense [GMD-TMD], Space Strike = "Global Prompt Strike" as well as Global Space Defense.

* CHINA DAILY FORUM > OBAMA THROWS JAPAN UNDER THE BUS AND BOWS TO CHINA.

versus

* DRUDGEREPORT > [Washington Free Beacon] CHINA THREATENS JAPAN [wid MilAction] AHEAD OF BIDEN TRIP.

Via PLA + PRC Defense Ministry Spox Geng Yangsheng.

The PLA VOWS TO SUPPORT + ENFORCE CHINA'S LAWS/CONTROLS IN NEW EAST CHINA SEA ADIZ.

You knew they would.

* CHINA DAILY FORUM > CHINA TO ELECTRONICALLY JAM FOREIGN MILITARY PLANES IN ADIZ.

"Soft/Subtle Escalation" doth still an Escalation maketh.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2013-12-03 20:57|| 2013-12-03 20:57|| Front Page Top

#24 The military leadership in China has some of the brightest minds. They have a better handle on how things will play out. The political elites will call the shots and the military must obey. There is their weakest point along with resource issues. They should continue doing what they are doing now. Just super-size. World shipping is declining. Rough times ahead for all.

Posted by Dale 2013-12-03 21:17|| 2013-12-03 21:17|| Front Page Top

#25 Thanks JFM :)Good short lesson.

The tread will work great now.

Posted by newc 2013-12-03 23:21|| 2013-12-03 23:21|| Front Page Top

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