[BBC] A recent, rapid heating of the world's oceans has alarmed scientists concerned that it will add to global warming.
This month, the global sea surface hit a new record high temperature. It has never warmed this much, this quickly.
Scientists don't fully understand why this has happened.
But they worry that, combined with other weather events, the world's temperature could reach a concerning new level by the end of next year.
Experts believe that a strong El Niño weather event - a weather system that heats the ocean - will also set in over the next months.
Warmer oceans can kill off marine life, lead to more extreme weather and raise sea levels. They are also less efficient at absorbing planet-warming greenhouse gases.
An important new study, published last week with little fanfare, highlights a worrying development.
| The article links to the study, which has a reeeely long list of co-authors and starts with an abstract full of assumptions about data accumulated since 1971. The first problem of which, it seems to me, is that in 1971 they were measuring in far fewer spots on the planet than they are now — or so I have read elsewhere. |
Over the past 15 years, the Earth has accumulated almost as much heat as it did in the previous 45 years, with most of the extra energy going into the oceans.
This is having real world consequences - not only did the overall temperature of the oceans hit a new record in April this year, in some regions the difference from the long term was enormous.
In March, sea surface temperatures off the east coast of North America were as much as 13.8C higher than the 1981-2011 average.
Another important factor that is worrying scientists is the weather phenomenon known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
For the past three years this naturally occurring event has been in a cooler phase called La Niña, and has helped keep global temperatures in check.
But researchers now believe that a strong El Niño is forming which will have significant implications for the world.
"The Australian Bureau's model does go strongly for a strong El Niño. And it has been trending that way and all the climate models have been trending that way to a stronger event," said Hugh McDowell from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.
| Ah yes, models. Which have proved poor at predicting thus far.... |
Mr McDowell cautioned that predictions at this point of the year are less reliable. Other researchers are more bullish.
A coastal El Niño has already developed off the shores of Peru and Ecuador and experts believe a fully formed event will follow with implications for global temperatures.
"If a new El Niño new comes on top of it, we will probably have additional global warming of 0.2-0.25C," said Dr Josef Ludescher, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research.
| If and probably — words to help you sleep more soundly at night, dear Reader. |
