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2021-08-02 China-Japan-Koreas
Contagion in the Chinese credit market?
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Posted by 3dc 2021-08-02 01:40|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [272 views ]  Top
 File under: Commies 

#1 Pundits been punding collapse of Chinese economy for the last 20 years.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2021-08-02 02:27||   2021-08-02 02:27|| Front Page Top

A deeper WHAT-IF alternative. ?

1st of all, How does a Capitalist monetary model and related issues apply to a Communist controlled sudo-Capitalist "allowed" operation and economy?

WHAT IF The CCP just said Screw It?
The CCP Leadership decides to Shutdown, kick-out or confiscate the assets of any business in the Country?

I read somewhere that CCP requires that it own 51% of any company setting up shop in CCP and already controls them. So what is to keep the CCP from rounding up all the Chinese CEO's in China and declare them Enemies of the Communist State, imprison anyone and confiscate their assets? Then line them up and shoot them. (like it did in 1946-50's)

The CCP, ranks #2 in total U.S. debt owned by foreign countries. Japan being #1. If the CCP could tank the US Bond Market it could collaspe Japan.

A CCP Bond / Capitalist Purge dump then would have a worldwide effects on many other national economies and businesses, annuities and etc. that are built on normally predictable interest/income revenues. (eg. The Fanny-Mae/Freddie-Mac collapse)

What is to keep the CCP from just going back to being a 100% Chairman Mao CCP 3.0 Communist Dictatorship ran country? Remember WE (the World) have rebuilt and modernized the CCP economy, infrastructure and likely have 100% financed its continued operations for at least another 5 to 7 years.

Yes this is a very remote scenario.
But who knows what the CCP World Economy 10 year plan is?
Posted by NN2N1 2021-08-02 06:32||   2021-08-02 06:32|| Front Page Top

#3 The great thing about central planning is this old saw - "Plan's just a list of things ain't gonna happen..."
Posted by M. Murcek 2021-08-02 06:43||   2021-08-02 06:43|| Front Page Top

#4 1st of all, How does a Capitalist monetary model and related issues apply to a Communist controlled sudo-Capitalist "allowed" operation and economy?

It's no longer a communist country, if it ever was. The sloganeering is just for public consumption. All "communism" is and has ever been was an excuse to elevate the winners of the civil war to the aristocracy, rewarding key supporters and handing out tiny amounts of free stuff to the populace. In China, if you don't work and you don't have any savings (or friends and family) to tide you over, you starve. That's the very definition of a market economy. The reason they don't repudiate communism is pretty much the same reason the pagan/atheist pope in Vatican City can't repudiate Catholicism altogether - it's the foundation of their power.

Xi Jinping is basically another Chinese emperor. His courtiers are the old aristocracy with new names. All this stuff about "fascism" is old wine in new bottles. Napoleon discovered that calling himself Emperor was bad for public relations, such that Beethoven changed the name for a symphony originally composed in the Little Corporal's honor. So in dictatorships that removed their de jure monarchs, the new kings call themselves "president", "general secretary" or some anodyne title that does not convey the reality of autocracy that "king" or "emperor" does. Hitler was basically a super-intrusive and -ruthless Kaiser, but Fuhrer sounded less overbearing.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2021-08-02 17:19||   2021-08-02 17:19|| Front Page Top

#5 ^ Absolutely, irrefutably true.
Posted by Dron66046 2021-08-02 18:51||   2021-08-02 18:51|| Front Page Top

#6 /\ Most informative. Thank you very much Zhang Fei.
Posted by Besoeker 2021-08-02 19:14||   2021-08-02 19:14|| Front Page Top

#7 Crony capitalism, at best, domestically, from all I’ve read. Predatory mercantilism abroad, and with international investors at home. A totalitarianism over all of it
Posted by trailing wife 2021-08-02 21:30||   2021-08-02 21:30|| Front Page Top

#8 Crony capitalism, at best, domestically, from all I’ve read. Predatory mercantilism abroad, and with international investors at home.

That's basically markets in the era of de jure monarchs. Royal charters (aka monopolies) for favored courtiers and a trade policy relentlessly focused on achieving a positive balance of payments. Re sticking it to foreign investors, China has actually been pretty good relative to the other BRICS economies. Unfortunately, thanks to Xi's overweening tendencies, that may be about to change. China may revert to mean (no pun intended). The problem is that it wasn't priced for the BRICS mean - it was priced higher, way higher.

Speaking of overweening tendencies, here's a missive from a prior regime's ruler (the House of Aisin-Gioro) to a neighbor:

(The Qianlong Emperor is) the lord of all under heaven who watches over everything inside and outside the empire and who rewards good and punishes evil.

In the late 18th century, King George III sent a trade mission to China because England was having a problem – all of their hard currency (silver and gold) was ending up in China because the English public had a taste for tea and for porcelain cups to serve it in and China was the main producer of both. The goal of the trade mission was to convince the Chinese that the English produced lots of high tech stuff like clocks and steam engines that the Chinese could buy instead of demanding payment only in silver. In response, Emperor Qian Long sent the trade mission home empty handed except for a really snooty letter that said, in effect, “We have no use for any of your shitty little toys. Anything we need we can produce on our own. Go away.” Here's the (somewhat overbearing) text of what he actually said:

You, O King, from afar have yearned after the blessings of our civilization, and in your eagerness to come into touch with our converting influence have sent an Embassy across the sea bearing a memorial [memorandum]. I have already taken note of your respectful spirit of submission, have treated your mission with extreme favor and loaded it with gifts, besides issuing a mandate to you, O King, and honoring you at the bestowal of valuable presents. Thus has my indulgence been manifested.


Tremblingly obey and show no negligence!

In case you were wondering, this was Mad King George he was addressing. As China becomes a bigger cheese on the world stage, this is the kind of diplomacy to which we can look forward.

OTOH, look on the bright side - this dysfunctional regime held the nation back from 1949 to 1979, before central economic planning was phased out in all but name. That's 30 years of respite for its immediate neighbors and, indeed, all under heaven. Chiang would have brought the empire back faster. Who knows what foreign adventures he might have embarked on?
Posted by Zhang Fei 2021-08-02 22:27||   2021-08-02 22:27|| Front Page Top

#9 The rest of the missive that includes the phrase "tremblingly obey" can be found here
Posted by Zhang Fei 2021-08-02 22:29||   2021-08-02 22:29|| Front Page Top

23:48 SteveS
23:36 Skidmark
22:39 Bangkok Billy
22:29 Zhang Fei
22:27 Zhang Fei
22:21 Dron66046
22:06 trailing wife
21:33 Bangkok Billy
21:32 Marilyn Bumble4397
21:30 trailing wife
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