Article

2007-01-23 China-Japan-Koreas

Pentagon Report Says Over 900 Chinese Missiles Aimed At Taiwan

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-01-23 09:25|| || Front Page|| [6 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 And if Taiwan has one missile aimed at the Three Gorges Dam?

Posted by Jackal">Jackal 2007-01-23 09:45|| http://home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html]">[http://home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html] 2007-01-23 09:45|| Front Page Top

#2 I would bet 3 Gorges had something embedded in one of the pours....

Posted by 3dc 2007-01-23 10:15|| 2007-01-23 10:15|| Front Page Top

#3 yeah...80% flyash

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2007-01-23 10:27|| 2007-01-23 10:27|| Front Page Top

#4 Simply unleash the Taiwanese legislature on the missile batteries. They would destroy anything in their path.

Posted by mcsegeek1 2007-01-23 11:09|| 2007-01-23 11:09|| Front Page Top

#5 :>
5 more days.

Posted by Shipman 2007-01-23 11:10|| 2007-01-23 11:10|| Front Page Top

#6 And a lot of them deployed within 10 miles of here...weehee!

One of the military scenarios for a war with Taiwan consists of an endless barrage of Chinese missiles which smash everything on the island. The problem of amphibious assault fades away as the island's government surrenders.

Posted by gromky 2007-01-23 12:15|| 2007-01-23 12:15|| Front Page Top

#7 Start burrowing.

Posted by ed 2007-01-23 12:25|| 2007-01-23 12:25|| Front Page Top

#8 gromky: One of the military scenarios for a war with Taiwan consists of an endless barrage of Chinese missiles which smash everything on the island. The problem of amphibious assault fades away as the island's government surrenders.

We dropped tens of thousands of bombs on Serbia during the Kosovo campaign. If the Taiwanese surrender after getting hit by 900 bombs, they belong under Chinese rule.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2007-01-23 12:26|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2007-01-23 12:26|| Front Page Top

#9 The best bet for the Taiwanese would be to develop in secret a less-expensive defensive weapon, much like that laser Phalanx mentioned elsewhere. Something that utterly negates the (military, if not 100%) effectiveness of the mainland's missiles.

Then through a little diplomatic finesse, sneer at the mainlanders in such a way that they sink all sorts of money into increasing and maintaining weapons that don't work.

Ideally, the mainland will spend endless billions of dollars on lots of a weapon that won't work, so that money can't go elsewhere.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-01-23 13:15|| 2007-01-23 13:15|| Front Page Top

#10 Frank G (#3), did you read my real-life story on 80% flyash? Or are you makin' fun of Alabama engineers?

Posted by BA 2007-01-23 13:45|| 2007-01-23 13:45|| Front Page Top

#11 nope - it's been a long-running amusement for Alaska Paul and I - IIRC they used up to 45% or so Flyash in their Dam mix....cleaning out the blast furnaces and cheapening the cost...Safety B Damned :-)

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2007-01-23 14:08|| 2007-01-23 14:08|| Front Page Top

#12 presumably they use the 900 missile to knock out airfields, AA radars, AA sites, etc. Then, having established air superiority, they do a Serbia, focusing on ports, fuel storage facilities, etc. If you take out the air fields completely, not only do you get the Taiwan AF, but you make it hard for the US to move in land based air, so its all up to the carriers to contest the air. Of course as we've found out, its possible to repair airfields, depending on the nature of the damage. One presumes Taiwan is preparing for that.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-01-23 15:00|| 2007-01-23 15:00|| Front Page Top

#13 This all assumes that the Taiwanese are stupid enough to leave their air force sitting out in the open ala Hickam air field on a day in December. I suspect the Taiwanese air force has put some thought into dealing with a missile barrage.

What a missile barrage would do to the Taiwanese military, I dunno -- I suspect not a lot beyond upsetting them terribly. It would certainly shut down all the high-tech industry on the island, a fair bit of which makes stuff for US markets.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2007-01-23 15:01|| 2007-01-23 15:01|| Front Page Top

#14 It would also cut off China's income - we'd shut down all shipping. Whose economy would suffer the most?

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2007-01-23 15:04|| 2007-01-23 15:04|| Front Page Top

#15 Zhang Fei,
I'm thinking a better comparison would be the V-1/V-2 barrage on London towards the end of WWII. Not quite 2500 V-1s hit their targets out of more than 10,000 launched, and at least 1400 V-2s hit London alone.
900 IRBMs with HE warheads would be a VERY bad day for the Taiwanese, but it's been done before against a smaller target...and still failed.

Mike

Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2007-01-23 15:17|| 2007-01-23 15:17|| Front Page Top

#16 Are Chinese missles required to be labeled 'MADE in CHINA'?

Posted by CB 2007-01-23 15:24|| 2007-01-23 15:24|| Front Page Top

#17 I think Taiwan has a plan (aka Israel on start of 6 day war) if they thought China was really gonna push the button. 900 missiles is starting to become a really easy target to hit with cruise missiles, planes and stand off munitions and I doubt China has them all on mobile trucks.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2007-01-23 15:26|| 2007-01-23 15:26|| Front Page Top

#18 No the parts are all made in Bangladesh and assembled by Mexicans which were former garden workers at the White House.

Posted by Icerigger 2007-01-23 15:27|| 2007-01-23 15:27|| Front Page Top

#19 nope - it's been a long-running amusement for Alaska Paul and I - IIRC they used up to 45% or so Flyash in their Dam mix....cleaning out the blast furnaces and cheapening the cost...Safety B Damned :-)

Well, then sit back and enjoy (you too, AP)! I was in school (at Auburn) for Civil Engineering, when my Concrete professor came in and had a "funny" real-life story (we were studying different fillers for concrete at the time, and he'd just discussed flyash). Anyhoo, they were building a new overchange over I-85 a couple exits north of Auburn (in the lovely twin-city of Opelika, AL), and had just finished pouring the decking. Anyhoo, the contractor involved poured (supposedly) to specs, but the specs had been reversed and they poured with 80% flyash. Stuff never even thought about curing, and they had to rip it all up and start over! No one thought to use some freakin' common sense and just think about if 80% flyash sounded even reasonable! Even I, a young, non-graduated engineer to be knew better than that! So, it's not just China! Of course, we always quibbled that the design engineer must've been from GA Tech (a.k.a. North Avenue Trade School), lol!

Posted by BA 2007-01-23 15:32|| 2007-01-23 15:32|| Front Page Top

#20 My question about the 900 missiles is this : they use conventional blast warheads, so what is their CEP? If it is 100 meters or so, a standard NATO hardened aircraft shelter defeats those missiles. Also if it is a 100 meter CEP, then are no guarantees that the actual runways will be hit enough to stop their use. However, even with that large of CEP, the Chinese could effectively cancel all civilian airline traffic, and all largo cargo ship transit. So the Red Chinese could enforce a form of siege on the Taiwanese.
Of course, if the Chinese fit nukes as the warheads, CEP in the main is irrelevant. But then, all China conquers is a radioactive wasteland. And all indications are that the Reds want gobble up a functional economy and all the benefits of industrialization that Taiwan has, not turn it into a post-apocalyptic wasteland.

Also, even if the Reds take out the Taiwanese Air Force bases, can they take out all the navy bases, all pre-positioned artillery sites guarding the beaches, the Army bases, the Marine bases, and the forces at sea? Can that missile barrage ensure that no ground forces are in place around the major air fields that the Reds would need to seize to air transport in their light armor for their airborne troops - BMPs and assault guns?

This article sounds suspiciously like the old "Chinese can run people in human waves at your position and never run out" myth of the 1950s. It assumes that all courage and determination are on the side of the Reds, and none on the side of the Taiwanese. And it leaves out one BIG point : what about the US Navy and the aircraft carriers over in the region? Do they just suddenly disappear or are the Reds convinced that the US will just lie back and take it?

Posted by Shieldwolf 2007-01-23 16:04|| 2007-01-23 16:04|| Front Page Top

#21 One last point : the article seems to assume a zero warning start point for the barrage. Does anyone believe that the Reds could initiate a full-blown bombardment of Taiwan, without preparations of the missile network, or warnings being sounded by the Taiwanese spy network? Especially considering the amount of political in-fighting that would precede such an attack : there is a known large faction in the PLA that regards Taiwan as important but not worth the whole economy, or a straight up battle with the US Navy. Think they are NOT going to be pulling strings and calling in favors to head off such an attack? And that every intelligence agency in the area would miss that?

Posted by Shieldwolf 2007-01-23 16:13|| 2007-01-23 16:13|| Front Page Top

#22 Missiles like the M-9 that China would use to bombard Taiwan have a CEP of 100-150 meters. With GPS and radar guidance, 30 meters and improving. And an attack can come out of the blue. It would require 30 minutes or less to launch the missiles. Once in the air, these is not enough reaction time for aircraft or ships to launch. Dig deep, disperse and decoy what you can. Also think what an attack will do to the Kadena flight line.

Posted by ed 2007-01-23 16:41|| 2007-01-23 16:41|| Front Page Top

#23 Steve - Sure, lets assume the planes of the Taiwan air force are all in secure underground bunkers. And the fuel depots too. The runways have to be out in the open, but theyre not all that hard to repair, a waste of a very valuable missile. Best targets? Again, probably the radars, and the AA. I think PRC could still do a lot of hurt to the Taiwan AF with 900 ballistic missiles. If not you could add them to their counter value campaign, and trust the PRC AF to go head to head with the Taiwan AF without benefit of a counter force campaign by the cruise missiles.

If I was using them for counter value, Id hit the port facilities mainly rather than the chip factories. In the short term that will do more damage to Taiwans ability to stay in the fight.

Of course they could also use the missiles for something less than an all out fight. Assuming their goal was NOT to conquer the island, but simply to get it to walk back from say a UDI. they could simply target shipping, with the goal of inflicting enough harm to the Taiwanese economy that they decided the UDI wasnt worth it.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-01-23 16:41|| 2007-01-23 16:41|| Front Page Top

#24 "Also, even if the Reds take out the Taiwanese Air Force bases, can they take out all the navy bases, all pre-positioned artillery sites guarding the beaches, the Army bases, the Marine bases, and the forces at sea? Can that missile barrage ensure that no ground forces are in place around the major air fields that the Reds would need to seize to air transport in their light armor for their airborne troops - BMPs and assault guns? "

No, not with 900 missiles. But if you can take out the AF and the air defence, you dont have to. You let the PRC airforce do that. Thats kinda the way we play it (Iraq 91, Iraq 2003, Afghanistan 2003, and, IIUC, Serbia 1999) You use the missile to take out the stuff that can hurt YOUR air force, (and anything else you want to take down before you have assured air superiority) and then you send in the piloted aircraft to do the rest.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-01-23 16:44|| 2007-01-23 16:44|| Front Page Top

#25 "It would also cut off China's income - we'd shut down all shipping. Whose economy would suffer the most? "

depends on the circumstances when war starts. If Taiwan is minding its own business, and going along with the status quo, and PRC attacks out of the blue, we can cut the shipping. It WILL hurt our economy, but man, look at those aggressive PRCers. If on the other hand, Taiwan declares a UDI, while PRC has been playing good global citizen, will Suzy Housewife want to give up cheap goodies at Walmart for the sake of some adventurers in Taipei? (thats how it will be spun) That, incidentally, is ONE of the reasons PRC has to play "good global citizen"

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-01-23 16:49|| 2007-01-23 16:49|| Front Page Top

#26 900 sorties, damn that's bad news. Wait a second, that's 900 PLA sorties, terrible news indeed, unless they're using nerve warheads. Still laughable.

/The Fly Ash Liberation Army is still on the move

Posted by Shipman 2007-01-23 16:58|| 2007-01-23 16:58|| Front Page Top

#27 Okay, so the PLAAF is now assigned to take out the anti-aircraft batteries on land. What do they do about the shipboard Standard Mark 2s and 3s that the Taiwanese Navy has? Or the Patriots in the hardened silos? Or any of the vehicle-mounted SAMs like the Avenger, Chaparral, and the Taiwanese knockoffs? And that does not into account any MANPADs or Vulcan-style AAA.
We were able to do the takedown on the Iraqis because we had the superior equipment in LARGE numbers, and we used every excuse in the form of a shot at the overflights to hammer the Iraqi air defenses BEFORE we attacked. Remember one point : the PLAAF has about 150 modern aircraft, the rest are 1950s and early 1960s MiGs and MiG knockoffs. Would you want to do Wild Weasel in a Chinese knockoff of a MiG-19? {Chinese quality control is worse than the Soviets during WWII}.

30 meter CEP is good but not great : NATO standard hardened shelters are designed for 10 meter CEP attacks by FROGs. Plus Taiwan is mountainous and has a lot of road tunnels running through the mountains - ready-made emergency aircraft shelters.

And what about the 4 Aegis destroyers the Taiwanese have? Anyone care to try them on in a J-7, J-8, J-10, or even Su-29?

Posted by Shieldwolf 2007-01-23 17:47|| 2007-01-23 17:47|| Front Page Top

#28 I had a pretty horrifying thing pointed out to me by a WWII vet: that it would have been acceptable to have 90% casualties on D-Day, as only 10% getting and maintaining a beachhead was enough.

To think that Washington and London were willing to accept such losses is staggering. Not desirable, of course, but acceptable.

That thought haunts me when I consider a massive flotilla attack against Taiwan.

A plan using the following scheme: land as many personnel as possible on Taiwan; have them *avoid* direct conflict with the Taiwan military, instead have them invade the cities.

Using the civilian population as hostages, force the Taiwanese army to fight an *urban* war to re-take their own cities.

Importantly, once a significant landing would take place, the mainland would declare that China was unified, and that any action taken to *free* Taiwan was an unprovoked act of war.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-01-23 18:04|| 2007-01-23 18:04|| Front Page Top

#29 Shield - I assume they would go after the Taiwanese navy with the PLA-Navy.

The problem of aircraft quality would be big for the PLAAF. Really they have only 150 quality AC? 900 ballistic missiles, and 150 quality AC isnt gonna go that far against an extensive air defense system, Id agree.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-01-23 18:29|| 2007-01-23 18:29|| Front Page Top

#30 anon - that wouldnt work. They have to secure a beach to move supplies in over, and establish a supply line to the beach. As long as there are intact Taiwanese forces, those forces can attack PLA supply lines, they dont have to go into the cities, if that doesnt seem like a good idea. Now the PLA could threaten to massacre the pops of the cities, (is that what you mean by hostages?) but that would probably lead to major international isolation that a trading nation cant afford, and perhaps internal problems on the mainland as well.

And im not sure where your friend got his 10% number. There were 5 divisions landing on D-Day. if only half a division had survived, it would have had extreme difficulty resisting a German counter attack on the beachhead. It would have had to rely completely on air superiority to do so. And air superiority is precisely what we are talking about.

If the PLAAF cant gain air superiority over Taiwan, an amphib invasion is very difficult.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-01-23 18:35|| 2007-01-23 18:35|| Front Page Top

#31 4 Aegis destroyers and shipboard Standard Mark 2s and 3s
Taiwan has no Aegis. While the US has expressed willingness to sell Aegis, the Taiwanese have been diddling around with the $15B arms package. Besides, then they will have to find someone willing to build the ships some years down the line (2010 or later). They recently received 4 ex-US Kidd class with SM-2s and twin missile launchers (no vertical MK-41s). They are not designed to intercept ballistic missiles in a near vertical trajectory (if caught in port). In addition, the Kidds' defenses can be saturated much more easily than Aegis. Their frigates are ex-US Perry (anti-air w/ SM-1) and Knox (anti-sub and surface, ASROC and Harpoon) and new build Lafayettes (Exocet and Crotale). Not a confidence builder, except for the ex-Knoxes.

Or the Patriots in the hardened silos?
Don't know about silos. Patriot is mobile and better stay that way. Get fixed and die. The Patriots are PAC2 and PAC2 GEM, not PAC3 (hit to kill ABM). PAC3s are part of the US arms package offer.

Chaparral, MANPADs or Vulcan
Useless for defending high value assets when aircraft come in high with LGBs. More useful around the invasion beaches.

Taiwan's best fighters are 200 F-16A and Mirage 2000s. They would get owned by the 200+ SU-27/30s. Best hope is to stay in the clutter and ambush the Su-XXs from below. Behind them are another 2,000 combat aircraft. The F5s and Ching-kuos will have a handful taking on attacking bombers and invasion ships. Taiwan needs lots of the latest F-16s or better to have a chance in the air.

Taiwan best chance is to arm up to delay invasion, close off Chinese ports with mines and anti-ship missiles, attack leadership and control nodes with cheap and plentiful cruise missiles, and hope to God the US comes to the rescue.

Posted by ed 2007-01-23 19:19|| 2007-01-23 19:19|| Front Page Top

#32 Pragmatically, post-Cold War Taiwan represents nuthin to the Chicommies save as offshore WARM-WATER PORT [WWP]wid good distance to and between JAPAN, SK, PHILIPPINES, WEST-PAC-CENTPAC and all points OTH. Iff they can't control-contain Taiwan for beneficial trade advantages, they'll deny = destroy her utility as WWP. Chicom altern mil options vv PACOA's appear to be VIETNAM = [NORTHERN] JAPAN. China's already in process of establishing herself on both sides of INDIA + East Africa. IMO, should war take place, CHINA> ASSASSINS MACE/BATTLE ZONE schemes > overwhelm Taiwan conventionally? despite any level of PLA casualties, followed by immed NUCLEARIZED/WMD ARTY REINFORCEMENT while battle for control of island still going on, as backed up by mainland missle-bomber forces. Opportune time is post-new 9-11/Amer Hiroshima, when US NPE is heavily damaged iff not destroyed, Nationa + US Two-Party politix in chaos, + OWG anti-Amer Americans = anti-US Amer Socialists demanding USA protect itself by getting out of ME, plus calling for Gubmint-wide investigations [ITS DUBYA'S-GOP-RIGHT-USA's FAULT], impeachments, and recomm panels ON WHY ISOLATIONISM, ANTI-SOVEREIGNTY, OVERT ANTI-AMER AMER SOCIALISM + USA SUBORNED OWG IS "JUSTIFIED", .......etal.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2007-01-23 19:57|| 2007-01-23 19:57|| Front Page Top

#33 The PLAAF has around 250 modern Su27/30; ROC has 146 F-16 A/Bs, 56 Mirage 2000-5, 128 IDF {F-16 Lite, homegrown), and 60+ F-5E/Fs. As for the 2000 other "fighters" that the PLAAF has, only 600 have the range on them to be able to reach Formosa with any time over target {at least 1-3 minutes}, without splashing into the ocean on the way back.

The ROC practices twice as many hours as the PLAAF; ROC pilots logged twice as many hours in the air, in their aircraft; ROC pilots have contacts with Western air forces, including visits by friendly Western pilots; and the ROC only needs to be operating within 15 miles of their bases for MIGCAP. Also, the ROC has 6 E2 Hawkeyes which if they orbit over central Formosa give an AWACs view of all of Formosa, the Taiwan Straits, and up to 200 miles into mainland China.

One last question for everyone : name ONE time that a Soviet/Russian equipped and trained air force has defeated a Western equipped and trained air force, in full scale open combat.

Also for those talking about amphibious landings, there was a reason to choose the beaches at Normandy : closer point from England, less distance on open water. Also, the US/allies enjoyed total air superiority/supremacy during Operation Overlord. Plus, the German Navy was effectively shutdown prior to the operation.

PLA has to cross over 80 miles of open ocean, {5 time further than Overlord's crossing}, in an environment without surety of air superiority, active naval resistance, and without anything approaching the transport ships or landing craft that the Allies used during Overlord. Excluding US/Allied operations, name ONE other successful amphibious assault.

There is a reason that the US kept the Marine Corps and all of those Army and Navy landing craft : we are essentially the only ones in the world who are able to do amphibious ops. And unless or until the Chinese build even Austin class ships in numbers and have 800-900 Su-27 or better aircraft, the PLANF will be the originator of the "Million Man Swim" in any amphibious operations.

Posted by Shieldwolf 2007-01-23 20:32|| 2007-01-23 20:32|| Front Page Top

#34 As of today, the Taiwanese are going to get beat badly in the air. They have less than 1 AMRAAM (120) per F-16A and no reloads of AIM-7s (600 and inadequate performance). The short ranged MICAs on Mirage2000s are inadequate to fight off SU-27s and R77s.

Without contesting the air, defense of a seaborne invasion is doubtful. The only saving grace is the MiG21 clones have very range, enough to get to Taiwan but not loiter. The Taiwanese are relying on Uncle Sam's Cavalry to come to the rescue.

One last question for everyone : name ONE time that a Soviet/Russian equipped and trained air force has defeated a Western equipped and trained air force, in full scale open combat.
Indo-Pakistani War of 1971

Posted by ed 2007-01-23 21:04|| 2007-01-23 21:04|| Front Page Top

#35 Indo-Pakistani War of 1971

An exception that proves the rule.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2007-01-23 21:21|| 2007-01-23 21:21|| Front Page Top

#36 Pakistan lost to India, a numerically superior Soviet equipped force, much like China. In 1965, when the odds were more even (Pakistan outnumbered, but better aircraft), the result was a draw. Today, Taiwan is both outnumbered and qualitatively inferior (at least in the high end).

Posted by ed 2007-01-23 21:27|| 2007-01-23 21:27|| Front Page Top

#37 Shieldwolf: The mainland has been practicing very large amphibious operations for a while now:

http://tinyurl.com/3y942t

'Last week, Chinese troops and transports were massed for a large military exercise opposite Taiwan. According to the Chinese press, the People's Liberation Army will practice an attack against "an outlying Taiwanese island while fighting off an aircraft carrier..."'

"...The Chinese exercises are said to involve at least 157 amphibious craft and vehicles..."

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-01-23 22:47|| 2007-01-23 22:47|| Front Page Top

#38 ed,
Taiwan has a lot of stuff underground in the marble caves under mountains.
They have Matsu and Ginmun
They have lots of surprises.
If the KMT told the current gov about all their little surprises is another story but... you can bet the generals know.
The ROC has a very aggressive military. They accept that the best defense is a good offense.

Strategies could be interesting.

The PLAAF would be wise to double check all their facts before an attack.

Also, don't forget the financial angle. Over half the overseas investment in the PRC is directly or indirectly (US fronts and such) from the ROC. The home front employment picture could get hazy.
Most of this investment is in Southern China.
Most of the aggressive military PRC types are from Northern China. A civil war in the PRC could well begin as a difference in North/South interests to the detriment of the South....

Lots of angles here. I suspect bluff and bluster.

Posted by 3dc 2007-01-23 23:08|| 2007-01-23 23:08|| Front Page Top

17:23 Icerigger
23:18 trailing wife
23:16 trailing wife
23:10 Anguper Hupomosing9418
23:08 3dc
23:02 Lone Ranger
23:02 Phineter Thraviger
23:01 ex-lib
22:58 Chuck Darwin
22:56 trailing wife
22:47 Anonymoose
22:41 Anonymoose
22:37 Procopius2k
22:21 Barbara Skolaut
22:10 Barbara Skolaut
22:08 Barbara Skolaut
21:58 Expert From Oregon
21:58 tipper
21:49 Beau
21:48 RD
21:42 mojo
21:40 mojo
21:35 RD
21:34 Alaska Paul