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2005-05-22 Home Front: Tech

New York Prepares For The Arrival Of Avian Flu H5N1

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Posted by Anonymoose 2005-05-22 10:40|| || Front Page|| [4 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Crying wolf?

This business with Avian Flu H5N1 is starting to smell.....a bit too hyped.

If it turns out to be a dud, then what will happen next year if a real problem appears.

but wtf do i know.

Posted by Gleling Greatle9407 2005-05-22 15:19|| 2005-05-22 15:19|| Front Page Top

#2 Its a balance of probabilities as to when a pandemic occurs, although probably not if. Every new strain of this type (3 of them) we know about has gone pandemic. In my view it has already started. A couple of things. Tamiflu resistance has already occured in Vietnam and the Tamiflu stockpiles may prove to be useless. H5N1 was present in India in 2001/2002 and was carried by migrating birds to East Asia.

Posted by phil_b 2005-05-22 15:35|| 2005-05-22 15:35|| Front Page Top

#3 Gleling Greatle9407: Don't jump the gun. They've as much as come out and said it won't be this flu season. They plan to change the method of vaccination when it does hit from the standard "old people, infirm and infants" to "school aged children (the biggest communicators), and blanket vaccinations for outbreak areas"; which is actually the *old* way of doing things, statistically better in an epidemic. However, the US's lead time from Asia for the flu to hit has been radically reduced, so we could get the full-blown epidemic of highly-lethal avian strain almost as soon as it breaks out into the Asian population. As far as "crying wolf", there have been concerns about the next "killer flu" since the 1980s, after the false start with the "swine flu" in the Ford Adminstration, which *didn't* kill around 500,000 Americans *only* because it mutated to a less harmful strain just before it hit the US.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-05-22 16:26|| 2005-05-22 16:26|| Front Page Top

#4 The Southern Hemispheres flu season is just starting. Anyway once a pandemic gets going the season will be immaterial.

Posted by phil_b 2005-05-22 17:49|| 2005-05-22 17:49|| Front Page Top

#5 Regardless when (if) a flu pandemic occurs, this kind of planning is good for any kind of mass infection, including terrorist-caused.

One question I haven't seen addressed in posting here, and admittedly I've been lazy and haven't searched out the information, is how long the tamiflu antiviral can be stored without losing its effectiveness. Lots of meds have a one- two- or three-year effectiveness period under ideal storage conditions. And, NYC has an awful lot of running expenses, and very little spare money to throw away if the epidemic doesn't occur.

I guess what I'm asking is, compared to all the other high priority burgeoning emergencies, what is the real risk of a flu pandemic, as compared to risks of something really ugly landing in a shipping container in New York Harbor, or a bomb being set off in the subway?

Posted by trailing wife 2005-05-22 22:59|| 2005-05-22 22:59|| Front Page Top

23:59 .com
23:59 thibaud (aka lex)
23:30 Bomb-a-rama
23:25 trailing wife
23:19 trailing wife
23:18 trailing wife
23:07 DMFD
23:02 DMFD
22:59 trailing wife
22:48 trailing wife
22:41 mhw
22:41 Dave D.
22:41 3dc
22:40 Bomb-a-rama
22:32 trailing wife
22:25 trailing wife
22:22 trailing wife
22:21 .com
22:20 Pappy
22:17 Dave D.
22:13 trailing wife
22:12 Pappy
22:11 trailing wife
22:09 Anonymoose