#6
who cares. I like the way the MSM makes a mntn out of a mole hill about what an ex-biker con w/clownish locks says in a *private phone conversation* w/a family member......how about reporting on something relevant, uhmmm, I don't know......maybe like how the Surge is actually working......
#8
The "Dog" isn't exactly white; native Hawaiian features are obvious in his face.
As for his message to his drug addict son, he was telling him that he shouldn't be with a black girl because family use of the "N" word might slip out to the "Enquirer." The "Dog" appears to like using the word in private. I don't watch that trash show anyway.
If you live in Zimbabwe and only have access to the local media or even if you live abroad or in South Africa, I would expect that you are very confused about the MDC and the state of play in the country at large! About the only thing that is straight forward is the fact that we are in a total mess and the economy is in meltdown.
The reason for the confusion is quite clear we (the MDC) are being subjected to a total onslaught in the media driven by a variety of political interests who are all committed to ensuring that the MDC does not win the next election. Its a long and convoluted story but I will try to summarise and map out the essential elements to try and help you understand what is going on and why.
The domestic agenda is the most easily understood. When Zanu PF accepted they faced an election in March 2008 and that this could not be postponed as they had wanted to 2010 and on top of that they would be required by regional leaders to put on a show for the world community that they were able to organise a free and fair election, they went into high gear.
Continued on Page 49
The Somme, as Rowan Atkinson's Captain Blackadder might have said, was a lunacy from which no amount of cunning plans could offer an escape.
In Captain Alexander Stewart of 3rd Scottish Rifles, the BBC's comic anti-hero would have found a kindred spirit. The officer's previously unseen Great War diary reveals the black comedy of the trenches which masked the heroism and the horror.
Captain Stewart's diary, which has been published for the first time, reveals how on one occasion he struggled to shoot straight during a battle because of his pipe. He wrote: "After my third or fourth shot, I found that the bowl of my pipe and the smoke from it was obscuring my line of vision as I was firing slightly downwards all the time. Much to my annoyance, I had to put my pipe in my pocket alight as it was; it was lucky that it did not burn my jacket.
"Just as I got my rifle working I saw a man in the trench calmly kneeling down and taking an aim at me. At the moment I saw him he fired. But in a miraculous way he missed."
The memoirs, entitled The Experiences of a Very Unimportant Officer, were written shortly after Captain Stewart returned home from the battlefields after being injured in 1917. In them, he details his annoyance at being woken up by pointless edicts from headquarters asking him how many socks his men have. "I reply 141 and a half. I then go to sleep; back comes a memo: "please explain at once how you come to be deficient of one sock". I reply "man lost his leg". That's how we make the Huns sit up."
He also records his sleep being disturbed by rats licking the styling cream off his hair.
Captain Stewart made just three copies of his memoirs. They remained undisturbed for almost 70 years until his grandson, Jaime Stewart, 49, stumbled across them. Mr Stewart, an actor from Bristol, said: "Until now it has only been read by one or two members of my family and close friends.
"But now I'd like to share this amazing piece of personal history of his time in the trenches."
Captain Stewart was commissioned by the Scottish regiment, the Cameronians, in 1915 and, aged 39, was sent to France to command C Company after his training. His diary records how many of his comrades suffered shell shock followingone episode of heavy shelling in July 1916, a fortnight after the beginning of the Battle of the Somme. He also wrote about a "plague of fat and dirty flies" which covered the bodies of hundreds of fallen men.
Following two years on the frontline, Captain Stewart was sent home to Richmond, Surrey, when he was injured by shrapnel. Describing the injury, he wrote: "I started to cough and brought up some blood and a bit of the shell which must have stuck in my wind pipe. My servant very kindly retrieved the bit of iron out of the mud and, handing it to me, remarked that I might like to keep it. This I did and my wife has it now."
Captain Stewart suffered severe post-traumatic and spoke little of his experiences before his death in 1964, at the age of 86.
His son, Thomas Stewart, 84, said: "He wanted to record what it was like, and he wrote well. For many years after the war he would wake up screaming in the night, but he never talked about it."
#1
One of the greatest tragedies of the 20th century was that so many of a generation of men like this died in WWI. Britain never recovered and Europe was changed forever.
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Gunmen opened fire on students returning from a march Wednesday in which 80,000 people denounced President Hugo Chavez's attempts to expand his power. At least eight people were injured, including one by gunfire, officials said.
Photographers for The Associated Press saw at least four gunmen -- their faces covered by ski masks or T-shirts -- firing handguns at the anti-Chavez crowd. Terrified students ran through the campus as ambulances arrived.
National Guard troops gathered outside the Central University of Venezuela, the nation's largest and a center for opposition to Chavez's government. Venezuelan law bars state security forces from entering the campus, but Luis Acuna, the minister of higher education, said they could be called in if the university requests them.
Antonio Rivero, director of Venezuela's Civil Defense agency, told local Union Radio that at least eight people were injured, including one by gunfire, and that no one had been killed. Earlier, Rivero said he had been informed that one person had died in the violence.
The violence broke out after anti-Chavez demonstrators -- led by university students -- marched peacefully to the Supreme Court to protest constitutional changes that Venezuelans will consider in a December referendum. The amendments would abolish presidential term limits, give the president control over the Central Bank and let him create new provinces governed by handpicked officials.
The protesters demand the referendum be suspended, saying the amendments would weaken civil liberties in one of South America's oldest democracies and give Chavez unprecedented power to declare states of emergency. "Don't allow Venezuela to go down a path that nobody wants to cross," student leader Freddy Guevara told Globovision. The Supreme Court is unlikely to act on the students' demands, given that pro-Chavez lawmakers appointed all 32 of its justices.
Chavez, who was first elected in 1998, denies the reforms threaten freedom. He says they would instead move Venezuela toward what he calls "21st century socialism."
Hundreds of National Guardsmen and police in riot gear were posted along the march route to prevent clashes between protesters and Chavez sympathizers, but they were restricted from entering the campus.
Posted by: Steve White ||
11/08/2007 00:40 ||
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#1
We knew this wouldn't be long in happening. If the protesters don't get quiet and toe the line, this could get real bloody with a full civil war. Hopefully the US will help the anti-Chavez side.
The U.S.-Venezuelan community, centered around the Doral neighborhood of Miami and in the "Little Caracas" city of Weston just north of it, numbers at least 40,000 and may be as high as 180,000, the Miami Herald reports.
#5
Who's coming? Not farmworkers or day laborers. Sadly for Venezuela, we're getting the cream of the crop. The doctors working in department stores and teachers working in fast food places are among the many coming here who've had some opportunity to develop their skills as professionals and entrepreneurs.
That's the way it usually starts. Those that can get out are usually the first ones out. When the lawnmowers, cabbies, and sheetrock guys start showing up illegally, you'll know Hugo's screwed...
#6
I'm interested in the on-going developments in Venezuela and encourage any aspiring economist to use this opportunity to catalogue the mistakes of this regime. As a modern state devolves into Utopia, it will be worthwhile to the prospective doctoral candidate to have at his finger tips the political turning points and resultant economic dispair.
Capital formation is one of the greatest hurdles facing third world countries' entry into second world status. Watching the populist implosion of a country's capital is a rare and unique opportunity. Mugabe's actions are resulting in third world to simple dis-civilization. Chavez' devolution will result in a second world country becoming a third world country. Which, in the '50's, '60's and '70's was--being a third world country--a necessary condition for the rise and growth of Soviet and Chinese supported communist parties. The irony of returning to this "necessary condition" is painful, but an almost comedic playing out of what implementation of these Socialist/Lefty/Democrat prescriptions would mean, and could do, to our own national economy.
Lefties are convinced they know the path to social justice. It is not whimsically that they choose Malthus as their intellectual fulcrum. Their nightmarish convictions lead them to see the need to control the impulses of freedom...while granting the tyrant the power to enforce their convictions.
At least two people were shot at a Venezuelan university on Wednesday after a large student protest against President Hugo Chavez's drive to scrap term limits in a December referendum, authorities said.
A handful of people were taken to the hospital after violence at a university facility in Caracas following a march that drew thousands of students to protest Chavez's moves to expand his powers. While the exact circumstances of the incident remained unclear, it was the first time in the referendum campaign there were serious injuries and came days after Chavez said the opposition wanted to stoke violence to destabilize the country.
The OPEC nation's civil defense chief, Antonio Rivero, told Globovision television station from the scene of the violence, that at least two people were shot and wounded. TV images showed hooded men throwing objects into university classes and other people, apparently students, running away from the violence. Witnesses told Globovision the assailants fired guns and threw tear gas canisters. A Reuters witness at the scene said bystanders could not tell how the violence erupted. After the initial violence, apparent Chavez bully boyz supporters drove through the area on motorbikes and shot into the air, the witness added.
Posted by: Fred ||
11/08/2007 00:00 ||
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Troops flooded the center of the Georgian capital on Thursday to enforce a state of emergency imposed after a violent crackdown on anti-government protesters. Hundreds of Interior Ministry officers in khaki uniforms and armed with hard rubber truncheons patrolled Tbilisi's main thoroughfare, the site of the main protests by demonstrators calling for U.S.-backed President Mikhail Saakashvili to resign.
Riot police responded with tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons, and Saakashvili announced a 15-day nationwide state of emergency, in which news broadcasts on independent stations were halted and all demonstrations banned.
Nearly 100 people hurt during the clashes remained hospitalized Thursday, the Health Ministry said.
Normally noisy, bustling Rustaveli Avenue was quiet. Only a few cars moved along the street. Many pedestrians seemed stunned by the crackdown, and most were reluctant to talk about it.
"One doesn't treat one's own people this way," said Yekaterina Bukoyeva, a 35-year-old civil servant. "It was very painful to see how they were dispersing all the people."
The crackdown followed six days of protests in front of Parliament Georgia's worst political crisis since the pro-Western Saakashvili was elected nearly four years ago. The American-educated Saakashvili, who is trying to shake off centuries of Russian influence and integrate the ex-Soviet republic with the West, accused Moscow of fomenting the protests and expelled three Russian diplomats. Tensions with Russia have risen as Saakashvili has sought to establish central government control over two separatist regions that have run their own affairs with Russian support since wars in the early 1990s.
In protests that began Friday, demonstrators initially called for changes in the dates of planned elections and the electoral system. But after Saakashvili rejected their demands and accused their leaders of serving the Kremlin, they made his resignation their central aim.
In a nearly 30-minute televised address late Wednesday, Saakashvili said he regretted the use of force, but argued that it was necessary to prevent the country from sliding into chaos. "Everyone has the opportunity to express their protest in a democratic country and I, as a democrat, have always defended the right of people to protest ... but the authorities will never allow destabilization and chaos in Georgia," he said, flanked by Georgian and EU flags.
The state of emergency must be approved by parliament within two days.
The White House voiced concern over Wednesday's events. "We urge that any protests be peaceful and that both sides refrain from violence," said Gordon Johndroe, spokesman for the National Security Council. "The government and opposition should engage in a constructive dialogue with each other. We will continue to monitor the situation."
At least four channels showed entertainment programs instead of their regular news shows Thursday morning, and classes in schools and universities in Tbilisi were suspended for two days.
A Georgian television station regarded by the government as an opposition mouthpiece went off the air Wednesday night after riot police entered its headquarters. The Imedi station has carried statements by opposition leaders and broadcast constant footage of police dispersing the protests.
Opposition leaders advised supporters to refrain from street protests in line with government orders to avoid being hurt, Ivlian Khaindrava, a leader of the opposition Republican Party, told The Associated Press.
Many of Saakashvili's opponents support his aims, including closer ties with the United States and Europe. But there has been increasing disillusionment among critics who say he has not moved fast enough to spread growing wealth. Opponents accuse him of sidestepping the rule of law, creating a system marked by violations of property rights, a muzzled media and political arrests.
Russia, which views most countries of the former Soviet Union as its sphere of influence, has deepened ties with the separatist regions and imposed a trade and transportation blockade on Georgia.
Some Georgians supported Saakashvili's crackdown, also accusing Russia of fomenting the unrest. "You could see Russia's hand in this and one had to make tough decisions it was necessary, because they were already starting provocations," said David Chedia, 27, a marketing manager.
Russia's Foreign Ministry dismissed Saakashvili's claims as "irresponsible provocation" and said they were an attempt to distract attention from domestic problems. "We believe Georgia is approaching a serious human rights crisis," Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin said Thursday. "The footage the whole world saw from Tbilisi vividly shows what Georgian-style democracy is; It is the harsh, forceful dispersal of peaceful demonstrations, the closure of free media, the beating of foreign journalists."
And who would know about violations of human rights better than Vlad Putin and his boys?
Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili has declared a 48-hour state of emergency in the capital, Tbilisi. The announcement by the country's prime minister came after police used tear gas and water cannon to disperse demonstrators protesting for the sixth day against the Georgian president.
Riot police used water cannon, tear gas and batons to disperse demonstrators from the area around the parliament building in Tbilisi, the scene of six days of mass protests against Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. People fled the area with not only inflamed eyes, but inflamed passions, denouncing the Georgian leader as a dictator. Opposition activist Ivlian Khaindrava compared him to Bolsheviks, who seized power in Russia exactly 90 years ago.
This article starring:
Ivlian Khaindrava
Mikhail Saakashvili
Posted by: Fred ||
11/08/2007 00:00 ||
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#1
Other Georgia has state of emergency and calls for multi-faith Pray for Rain Day to fight the ongoing drought. Rather ironic the governor is named 'Sunny' (er, Sonny, but close enough.)
Barack Obama complained on Wednesday about an Internet photo that claims the Democratic presidential candidate did not hold his hand over his heart during the traditional pledge to the American flag. "This is so irritating," Obama said when asked about the photo in Muscatine, Iowa.
The photo, which has circulated widely on the Internet, was taken in September during Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin's annual Democratic fundraiser. A message accompanying the photo claims Obama did not observe the Pledge of Allegiance. Obama said the photo was taken during the singing of the national anthem, not the pledge. "My grandfather taught me how to say the Pledge of Allegiance when I was 2," Obama said, his annoyance obvious. "During the Pledge of Allegiance you put your hand over your heart. During the national anthem you sing."
Posted by: Fred ||
11/08/2007 00:00 ||
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#2
Fred: Ack! I got a glimpse of that gawdawful roadside america site when I submitted this comment. Doesn't seem to like the "width=400" I used to keep it at 400 pixels wide. But in the end it posted.
from a website: http://users.myexcel.com/williamsmj/Flag/id20.htm
The "Star Spangled Banner" has been designated as the national anthem of the United States of America. During the playing of the anthem when the flag is displayed, persons not in uniform should stand at attention facing the flag with their RIGHT hand over their heart. Those in uniform should begin saluting the flag at the first note of the music, and hold the salute until the last note of the anthem is played. This also applies to those wearing veterans' organization caps or the uniforms of other patriotic organizations.
#8
My grandfather taught me how to say the Pledge of Allegiance when I was 2...During the Pledge of Allegiance you put your hand over your heart. During the national anthem you sing
Oh, and unlike Chicago, in Iowa, the last two words of the Anthem are not 'Play Ball'. :)
#9
In Baltimore, at Orioles games, its customary to shout the "OH" towards the end as in "OH say does that ......", a reference to the O's.
Speaking of Baltimore,if youve never been to Fort McHenry, you should go - they do a film on the battle at the visitors center, and at the end, when they play the anthem, a curtain is drawn, revealing a window showing the flag flying over the Fort itself. I challenge any American to see it and be unmoved.
#15
isn't this the second or third time this has come up? Shouldn't he have educated himself about when to do what when symbols of state are displayed? You know, the perfect way to avoid these allegations is to show respect to the symbols of this country. Even if you are wrong about the particularities, it would still defuse these attacks. Since everything in a campaign is perfectly scripted, and since he neglects to take care of this aspect and criticism, I can only assume that he doesn't feel that he needs to, and that this is how he really feels.
Posted by: Mark E. ||
11/08/2007 22:07 Comments ||
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#16
Presumably he thinks that by standing attentively he is showing respect. He has so many significant lacks with regard to his presidential ambitions, this is at the bottom of my list. An understanding of effective vs. ineffective responses to someone trying to kill you is considerably higher, for instance.
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani picked up a potentially important endorsement in his bid to win the Republican Party's presidential nomination next year. Robertson announced his endorsement in a joint appearance with Giuliani in Washington. Giuliani is getting a boost from the Reverend Pat Robertson, a prominent Christian leader and social conservative activist who founded the Christian Coalition and the Christian Broadcasting Network. Robertson announced his endorsement in a joint appearance with Giuliani in Washington.
This article starring:
Pat Robertson
Rudy Giuliani
Posted by: Fred ||
11/08/2007 00:00 ||
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#1
Who died and made him the spokesperson for American Christians??? He may have a large following, but it ticks me off when the media treats him like some sort of spokesperson for all Christians nationwide. It's like the media creates a go-to person. One size fits all makes it easier for reporting but it is meaningless, really. For Blacks it is Jessie or Al and for Christians it's Pat.
#2
Pat Robertson hasn't been "influential" for a long time, but his name is in the MSM's and the Left's (but I repeat myself) auto-text function as "archtype scary anti-choice Christer theocrat wingnut."
Posted by: Mike ||
11/08/2007 6:56 Comments ||
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#3
Although I find the rev distasteful often, let's have a little optimism and see this for what it is.
The center right coalition that fell to snippy infighting and became a little unglued in '06 has seen that Hillary Clinton can win, and is circling the wagons. AFAIC, this can be nothing but good for America. Rudy Giuliani and Rev. Robertson aren't going to be hanging out together, but they both realize that they have more in common (in terms of what they want in a government and a society) than not, and infinitely more in common with each other than either has in common with the oppressive secularism, collectivism and cultural Marxism that are the bases for the current Democrat party.
The center-right have come to their senses. Staying home from the polls because a candidate doesn't make you 100% happy on one narrowly defined issue is NOT an option.
United, no Hillary. Divided, 14% of the private sector economy gets converted to socialism (probably forever), we lose our guns, and the Supreme Court gets packed with Bader-Ginsburg clones. It's that simple.
Posted by: no mo uro ||
11/08/2007 7:54 Comments ||
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#5
GT1651: The MSM has "cherry-picked" Robertson to "represent" Christians because he has long made us look foolish (that anti-Christian bias in the MSM reporters). Thus, like Rev. Al and Je$$e, he really does NOT represent the folks he claims to, but the MSM has to pick someone to represent those evil Christ-followers.
I know one thing's true....I truly admire Rev. James Dobson and others as "truer" Christians than Pat Robertson is, but good grief, when the election's gonna be this close, you've gotta "hold your nose and pull the lever" for Rudy. To do otherwise is a sin of omission (not doing something to prevent evil consequences), not commission (actively doing the evil deed yourself).
And, those of us Christians who are more Libertarian/Constitutionalist in nature realize that the President alone won't change Roe v. Wade (the main source of opposition to Rudy), but the COURTS will. If Rudy says he'll pick strict constructionists, I've gotta take him at his word, and not voting for him, gives Hillary the power to pack the bench once again, which will definitely set the right to life's agenda back decades!
Posted by: BA ||
11/08/2007 8:50 Comments ||
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#6
Spot on BA. I'm sick of hearing the same crap from the RR. Willing to stay home on election day because Rudy doesn't hit the whicket wrt abortion - very short sighted imo. Time to see the bigger picture.
#8
Does anyone know what The Rudy's stand is on rights/privileges for illegal aliens? Border enforcement in general? Socialized medicine?
I'm pulling the lever for Duncan Hunter in the primary. Rudy's just more of the same. But, since Duncan probably won't win, I'm sure I'll be pulling the lever for Rudy in the general election.
#9
when the election's gonna be this close, you've gotta "hold your nose and pull the lever" for Rudy. To do otherwise is a sin of omission (not doing something to prevent evil consequences), not commission (actively doing the evil deed yourself).
As someone who has never before voted republican (nor voted democratic in many years), yet cherishes this country's security and liberties, your post certainly resonates loud and clear, BA.
#10
Thanks for the kind words, Zen and Broadhead. This alone ticks me off about the "play our way or we'll take our ball home" Christians.
Personally, I agree that abortion is probably my #1 "single issue" I pull the lever on. Yet, these guys fail to recognize that we've had 4 Republican Presidents since Roe v. Wade was decided, one of which is considered the lower-case god of politics (Reagan) to these same folks, and yet, Roe v. Wade is still out there. The ONLY effect the President has on this case is electing JUDGES for the SCotUS.
Posted by: BA ||
11/08/2007 21:24 Comments ||
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#11
BA, if you have time, please comment on my post here:
John Kerry said Monday there might be a next time for his presidential aspirations, and if there is, the 63-year-old U.S. senator from Massachusetts says hell be ready for the political torpedoes that helped sink his 2004 White House bid. Kerry, whose service as a U.S. Navy Swift boat skipper during the Vietnam War came under attack in his race against President Bush, said he has compiled a dossier on his war record critics that he wishes he had as the Democratic presidential nominee.
Still hasn't released his records, though.
``We have put together a documented portfolio that frankly puts their lies in such a total light of absurdity and indecency, that should they ever rear their ugly heads again, we have every single t crossed and i dotted, and I welcome that in a sense,'' Kerry said following a morning address to the South Shore Chamber fo Commerce. ``Its a shame we werent able to produce all that at the time.'' How about producing your original DD214, John?
He released parts of it to a couple of news organizations, from what I remember. I don't think either you or I are privileged enough to see the whole thing. I just want to know his discharge status.
Kerry said he regrets his slowness to counter accusations from the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, which faulted Kerrys war record and his subsequent anti-war activism. ``I think the bigger problem was the campaign should have spent more money putting the truth out there,'' Kerry said. ``I think there was an assumption that is was out there, it was sufficiently out there.'' "A little more money and I could have had a better truth made up."
#3
The pathos of that little man. That nasty little ambitious, lying prick.
Until all men of honor die off, and their wives, and their children, he has no chance. Veterans are such an obstinate lot, and have such long memories. And over certain things they hold long grudges.
#4
always, always, just ask him to release ALL his mil records. He'll stutter, stammer, and BS, but he won't do it. Lying sack of shit
Posted by: Frank G ||
11/08/2007 7:49 Comments ||
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#5
If the Republicans had anybody, anybody up here to run against him in 2008 and made him actually work for it, I think he wouldn't even have a senate seat to lean on anymore. The guy's a joke even here. The kooks are even embarrassed to talk about him...
When Democrat Barack Obama's charter plane touched down Tuesday night, aides were surprised a car wasn't waiting to rush him to that night's campaign events. Someone stepped onto the tarmac and quickly realized why: They had landed at the wrong airport. Instead of going to Cedar Rapids, the plane had touched down about 100 miles to the west in Des Moines.
Spokesman Tommy Vietor said Wednesday that the mistake on the flight from Chicago made Obama about an hour late for a rally at a community college. While waiting, the crowd took to dancing and chanting. The presidential candidate apologized for the delay, simply explaining there had been a mix-up on the way from Chicago.
Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Omaha, Sioux City, all those flyover country destinations look so much alike...
#4
Was Teddy flying Obama's plane?
No, there was no bridge hurt during the landing.
MAybe the question should be be re-worded? Was John Jr. flying Obama's plane?
Perhaps, because it appears this fool couldn't read instruments, either.
He was only an hour late after going about 500 miles out of his way and adding one take-off and one landing? "We may be lost, but we're making good time."
Though it looks like an unmanned drone, and probably a tiny one at that, the Waterspout is no flying shrimp. The autonomous craft is designed to fly up to 80 miles, pick up two passengers, and return to its starting point on the open ocean.
The small helicopter, designed by a team from Technion University in Israel and Penn State, would be able to launch from a submarine swimming 50 feet below the surface. The craft would float to the surface, deploy its blades, take off even in rough seas, and fly autonomously to pick up its passengers. And, naturally, it would also use stealth technology, since you can imagine that this robo-chopper won't be deployed for run-of-the-mill pick-ups.
Instapundit says: "Every Bond vilain will want one." Bwahahahahahaha!
Posted by: Mike ||
11/08/2007 13:00 ||
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#1
I suspect it can do other things as well. Note the "too much information" in the article, about it returning to its launch point. That is just the sort of information submariners never want mentioned.
#2
No surprise here, as this helicopter has been dev/planned at PSU since the 1980's. The outcome of any future UAV-UV Battlespace Combat [Land. Sea. Air, Space] may be determined by whom has the most numbers of [integrated]UV + remote
"Motherships", sub/Node-Ships, etc. D *** NG IT, HOW DID KHALID MOHAMMED AND MUHAMMAD ATTA, ETC. NOT GET THIS HELO TECH FOR 9-11???
#4
hope our subs are structurally sound for that weekly side-to-side rocking the Seaview always incurred, as well as the Cthulhu-like sea demons, aliens, etc. that Dennis Kucinich controls with his mind
oops , sorry , wrong blog-speak :-)
Posted by: Frank G ||
11/08/2007 20:26 Comments ||
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A question arose in a thread about the relation of rents to house prices. Here is the teaser from a long Fortune article for those interested in more:
In most markets people won't lay out much more in monthly costs to own a house or condo than they would to rent a similar property unless they expect a huge profit when they sell. Indeed, speculators chasing quick profits did a lot to inflate the recent bubble.
But once the fervor fades, prices must fall to restore their normal, long-term relationship with rents. Rents exercise a kind of inevitable gravitational pull on prices. The ratio of prices to rents "behaves much like price/earnings ratios for stocks," says Yale economist Robert Shiller. "Like P/Es, price-to-rent ratios are mean-reverting." In other words, while prices soar from time to time, sending the ratio to exceptional heights, sooner or later the relationship is bound to return to its historical average.
So what are rents saying about home values today? To answer that question, Fortune worked with Moody's Economy.com to estimate adjustments needed to get prices and rents back in balance. We'll go into detail below, but the headline is gloomy: According to our calculations, prices in most markets will fall by double digits over the next five years.
Commodity currencies, including the likes of the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars, are set to be the major gainers from the latest bout of dollar weakness. The dollar was sent tumbling in early trade after a Chinese official said China should consider shifting its forex reserves to "stronger" currencies, sparking talk of further reserve diversification. The news only served to add to the growing list of reasons to sell the US dollar, including ongoing credit concerns and an ailing economy.
Other currencies soared across the board, but leading the way were free floating commodity currencies -- those whose countries are major producers of oil and/or metals. The Canadian dollar was the biggest gainer, rising by well over 1 pct to reach a multi-decade high of 0.9056 per US dollar, and the Aussie and Kiwi dollars not far behind.
The dollar's slump today has been accompanied by massive gains in oil and gold prices, giving all the more reason for these currencies to gain, as well as their attractiveness as high-yielding assets. People are not taking this seriously. When fuel oil no.2 gets to $5+/gallon in February, the shrieks from New England will make the moans from NOLA seem like hiccoughs. This dropping of interest rates was one of the worst Fed decisions since 1929.
A recession wouldn't be a good move right now, however, and the liquidity scare in the market has Bernanke worried. All the Fed governors got their grade-school economics education on how not to repeat the errors of 1929. So they'll cut rates and accept the consequences rather than see the economy plunge into a deep recession, particularly in the year before an election.
#2
We've had since 1973 to move away from oil, and have done as little as possible about it. Outsourcing has hollowed out the capacity of the USA to sustain itself. Between oil & outsourcing, trillions of $ have left the US & are in the hands of other governments like China. We're running out of time.
#3
If the dollar continues to decline, won't outsourcing become less profitable? The American economy is strong right now in terms of production, etc. We can make everything we need right here at home. Maybe it will be good for us to bring some of these jobs back home again. Also, we are moving away from oil. It seems to me, from a purely logical standpoint and nothing else, that if oil becomes very expensive, then the oil companies won't work as hard to keep alternative energy sources down because they will still be meeting their profit margins as we increase solar, hydrogen, wind and nuclear energy output. The use of carbon fuels was 20th century. We are in the 21st.
#4
I also point out that if there is a major *international* financial crisis, the US having a very low dollar might be a saving grace.
At such a time there might be a tremendous flight to currency quality. If the dollar was at normal levels, that could overnight ruin our $1.2T export business, by making the dollar too high. But since the dollar is rock bottom, it would just jump up within normal parameters.
Sarkozy is right to be worried, but not that the dollar is too low, but that the Euro is too high. But he is blocked by Merkel, who doesn't see things that way. I suspect that he knows that Bush has been doing whatever he can to force the dollar lower.
China's dumping of the dollar was easy to foresee, and they are going to lose many billions of dollars by switching to more expensive currencies.
#6
World economics is not a 'win-lose' competition. It's 'win-win' or 'lose-lose.' Collapse of the US economy will not enrich competitors, but drag them all down with it. A full global depression will make Americans seriously miserable, but the country as a whole will not starve. Same thing with Australia and Canada. Bigs chunks of the rest of the world will see scenes like Biafra in 1970, or the refugee camps of Darfur. That would likely include China - roofie-bead toys are a 'luxury' item that would not garner much rice in trade.
Sorry, a recession would be a great economic move right now. Better six months ago. The economy over heated. We've got enough housing inventory available to last a year, and more coming on the market daily as people who never should have gotten/taken deceitfully priced mortgages return their houses to the market.
Lots of those construction folks are going to be out of work. Lots of the people who make all the things that go into new houses are going to be out of work.
Instead of recognizing that we shouldn't have partied so hard, swearing off the cheap money and suffering for a while, we're going for the hair of the dog so we can postpone the day of pain and be unable to figure out how much it will really hurt when we can't put it off any longer.
This looks like 1979 so much my head hurts. Nobody fucking learns. And all that ends with Desert One.
#9
World economics is not a 'win-lose' competition. It's 'win-win' or 'lose-lose.'
Not so. Compare the British economy and standard of living from 1928 to 1978 to the American economy in the same period. A very large portion of the decline was due to the eclipse of the pound by the dollar due to the adoption of socialism by the Brits after WWII. We're following in their footsteps, only more slowly.
#10
If Americans were not net exporters of everything except industrial jobs many people would like to see return, this would be a problem. As it is, this is a hit for tourists who would rather visit Canada than go to Disneyworld but that is about it.
As for China and anybody else who is owed money by the US treasury. All those hundreds of billions are now worth considerably less... If I was a Bilderberger thinker, I would suggest devaluation of the dollar is part of an offensive against the ChiComs.
#11
As it is, this is a hit for tourists who would rather visit Canada than go to Disneyworld but that is about it.
1. Tell me that when gas hits $5.00 a gallon, keeps heading higher and you're happy you haven't gotten a raise in a year because your next door neighbor hasn't found a job in the same time.
2. Finance is about confidence. Multi-lateral defence treaties are about confidence. When people loose confidence in a country's currency, it means they are loosing confidence in the country's ability to maintain its financial house in order and to maintain its place in the world order. Why did people laugh about Italy's constantly devaluing currency and its revolving door governments? Because it reflected their inability to get their act together in any sense.
Rationalize what is happening all you want, but when the history is written, this crisis will be seen as a major historical inflection point for the US and right now I think we're choking.
#12
A very large portion of the decline was due to the eclipse of the pound by the dollar due to the adoption of socialism by the Brits after WWII.
BS. The fact is that British economy had been going down since about 1880. WWII made patent that British industry was often no longer capable of issuing half decent products: despite some outsatanding products, mainly planes like Spitfire, Mosquito or the Merlin engine they issued a lot of lemons (think in British WWII tanks), obsolete designs (their naval aviation designs was a joke) and ship for ship their Navy was outclassed by both the Japanese and German ones. Post WWII just continued the trend with British industry being wiped out of market after market in branch after branch. As an example the only car they managed to export was the tiny and crappy Aistin Mini (who made contemporary French designs look high end). As another example of stagnation and lack of investmaent British trains continued to be powered by coal long after mots of Western euuropes was using electriacally powered trains.
#13
I remember Carter times, but I also remember a decade later when the pundits were sure Japan was going to buy the U.S. lock, stock, and barrel. A decade after that, the pundits were sure the Arabs were going to buy the U.S. lock, stock, and barrel.
The Chinese are not stupid: they will not benefit by shifting too much too fast. But they will benefit by periodically inciting panic and buying the undervalued investment products.
#14
The Chinese are not stupid: they will not benefit by shifting too much too fast. But they will benefit by periodically inciting panic and buying the undervalued investment products.
Agreed. But the Chinese aren't the only other player in the game. And in one Chinese induced panic, some other player may do something very stupid leading to things unravelling from there.
#15
I thought I couldn't understand the economy, but after reading these comments and listening to the pundits I don't think anybody does. I do know that anything that is transported has increased in price. The plywood we use has doubled since the first of the year and our shipping costs (UPS) is 12% higher than last year.
Posted by: Thrairt Oppressor of the Lichtensteiners6029 ||
11/08/2007 11:21 Comments ||
Top||
#16
The chickens have come home to roost: The US' insatiable spend-on-credit habits have created a perfect storm. Domestically, the housing market crash has only just begun and its effects on the world economy can't possibly be predicted - by the Fed, or anyone - because of the complexity of the financial instruments that we've created to prop up the borrowing (read up on derivatives for a crash course in how to 'hide the risk'). China's dumping dollars because we've shown ourselves poor stewards of our money and no longer worth the risk. People have been predicting this for years. And we haven't seen anything yet with regard to the price of oil. It's straight economics at work: demand for oil will *never* go down so long as China and India continue to grow at their current rates. That means prices will continue to rise, putting a big squeeze on all of our wallets and creating inflationary pressures. Lowering interest rates exacerbates, rather than helping, those pressures. Put it all together and you've got recession, best case. Worse case: stagflation, where the economy contracts at the same time prices rise, a central banker's worse nightmare. The Fed's doing dumb shit like lowering interest rates and politicians' creating 'bail-out' funds for folks who stupidly overinvested in the housing market is a nowhere strategy that merely delays the inevitable. The party's over, guys. Tighten up the belts and stock up on Alka Seltzer, 'cause this one's gonna hurt. Hate to be doom and gloom, but the writing's on the wall.
#18
What this will do first, I think, is decrease the number of jobs for illegals... whose exodus, triggered by highly publicized ICE arrests, has already started. After all, with the dollar falling and employers checking papers more carefully, the benefits to trying for a job and a life here are significantly reduced.
#19
Nimble Spemble: Important note. 7500 houses were foreclosed in Las Vegas *last month*. Other than the prices of houses dropping like a rock, it also means that the price of rentals is going to go down.
That is, people who couldn't sell will decide to rent. This is very good news for house and apartment renters, and even university students.
For a long time, even apartment rents in a given market have been ridiculously high, approximately 50% of what a wage earner has left after losing 50% of their gross to taxes and FICA. By having rental prices slashed, renters are going to have a lot more discretionary income.
#21
Rents here in seattle are going up, primarily because more apartment buildings are being converted to condos, so there is less inventroy.
with the glut of foreclosures only just beginning, i would think ( in my own econ 101 sort of way) that a bank would be happy to renegotiate a contract and get SOMETHING for a house, because with that glut, buyers, at least in the short term are going to be in the driver's seat.
unscientific economy observation points: truck traffic on the interstates, train traffic, and costco parkng lot vacancies.
#22
For a long time, even apartment rents in a given market have been ridiculously high,
It's good for renters but bad for homeowners who need to pay the mortgage. Say for example that you have a mortgage payment of $1500 per month - you have to add several hundred dollars on top of that for taxes, $150 for a property manager, you need to store away a couple hundred for maintenance (long and short term) and then there is vacancy. If the home goes unrented for just one month every other year, it is the equivalent of dropping the monthly rent by a significant figure. Then there is insurance, (fire, liability) and termite control, etc. etc. etc.
The tax benefits help much - but it takes a long time before renting a home is actually profitable. Those greedy landlords aren't as greedy as you might think.
#23
Moose, It's hard to say about rents. People foreclosed on will leave the house they previously owned and go to the rental market and add demand, driving up rents. If the house enters the rental market, that will offset the new demand. But if the house sits empty for 6 months while the bank tries to sell it at any price, rents will not drop.
Also going on in the real estate market is abandonment of obsolescent units. This may sharply decelerate in a falling price period as owners cannot sell the property for a new use and have additional former owners entering the rental market.
And different markets will have different dynamics.
So there's no sure thing here except that a lot fewer houses will be built in the next 12 months than were in the last 12. And that will be true no matter how low the Fed drops the interest rate. So we're going to get inflation and the dollar will continue to fall, and the price of oil (NOT included in the core inflation rate used by the Fed) will continue to rise and the Chinese will get PO'ed about the losses they are suffering because of our Fed policies till the Fed has to raise interest rates and then it will hurt all the more for having been delayed.
Just as every new President gets tested in some foreign policy crisis early in the term, so does each Fed Chairman. And thus far Bernanke is a failure.
#24
Bernanke decided to print money to bail out people who loaned money to the wrong people, Bush decided to finance the whole war on terror on credit. It's a double wammy of stupidity.
I have already seen my food cost double since December and that is just the tip of the iceberg. My state imports electricity from Canada my power my power bill also will be going up.
I give Washington DC and the New York bankers, investors and speculators a huge F. The US is going into shithole status and may remain that way. I am just a little pissed about it.
#26
The Fed is in a real pickle: raise interest rates to prop up the dollar, and you slam the housing and stock markets, causing a recession. Lowering interest rates stimulates the economy, but erodes the dollar further and sparks inflation.
That Bernanke - a self-professed inflation fighter - chose to lower interest rates in the face of evidence the economy is *very* strong already and doesn't really need any more stimulus (3.9% GDP growth in Q307, led by a 3% growth in consumer spending) tells me he is scared shitless of a full-fledged collapse of the financial system that could occur if he did what he knew was right: to raise interest rates more (or at least leave them where they were), cool the economy down gradually and engineer the holy grail of central banking, the proverbial 'soft landing'.
The problem is that what happens domestically is only part of the equation. External shocks - significant rises in the price of oil or threats by foreign debt holders to 'dump' the world's premier reserve currency, for example - can undo even the best laid plans.
I wouldn't want to be Bernanke. Hardest job in the world.
#28
Excuse me if I am pessimistic and think that the only thing the Fed and Bernanke are concerned in is how much profit NY Bankers, investors and speculators make. The rest of use can go to hell in a hand basket. I am afraid this is going to make the Carter recession look like the good times.
While our currency goes to hell Bernanke, Bush and Congress are covering their personal asses and screwing the country with. The NYC fatcats are making out like bandits, bailing on our currency and leaving the country.
Oil is nearly $100 a barrel. Gas may soon reach $4 a gallon. And Americans are being bitten in almost every way imaginable by this insidious oil hydra.
Two billion people in China and India are now eager consumers. They want the cars, gadgets and lifestyle that Westerners have claimed as a birthright for a half-century. Their growing energy appetites mean that the international petroleum market may remain tight, even if Americans - who use almost twice as much oil per day as China and India put together - cut back on imported energy.
The Middle East is raking in billions each week. At best, our so-called friends in cash-laden Saudi Arabia subsidize fundamentalist mosques and hate-filled madrassas worldwide. At worst, our enemies in petrol-rich Iran are after the bomb, send weapons into Iraq to kill Americans and fund Hezbollah jihadists.
War in Iraq, rumors of fighting in the near-future in Iran and tension on the West Bank only panic markets, raise oil prices and further enrich our grinning enemies.
The nearly half-trillion dollars we will soon pay for imported oil does a lot more than prop up Russia's Vladimir Putin, Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The petrodollar drain also contributes to our trade deficits, falling dollar and a general demoralization of the American people.
Our oil habit not only makes us dependent on some creepy suppliers, but we look like fools as we work nonstop to hand over our earnings to those who are rich by an accident of sitting atop oil someone else found and developed.
There is talk in this country of a gradual transition to alternative fuels, solar power, wind machines, plug-in electric cars and nuclear power. Supposedly Americans will soon be less dependent on imported oil - while helping to slow global warming - as we are weaned off our fossil-fuel addiction.
But let's talk about the present: If oil continues to climb, ultimately, it will change our very way of life. Hard-pressed families will shell out thousands more a year in direct transportation and heating and cooling costs, and more still as consumer prices inflate.
It may have always been unwise for commuters to buy large SUVs and V8 supercab trucks. Now, though, we may reach the point where these pricey huge vehicles will sputter to a halt. Indebted Americans will still shell out monthly payments to pay off their parked dinosaurs, only to drive them for emergency or ceremonial occasions.
Also expect rising popular anger at an asleep-at-the-wheel government that for the last 20 years should have been doing a lot more to mandate conservation, subsidize alternate fuels, encourage nuclear power and open up oil fields offshore and in Alaska.
Instead, doctrinaire free-market purists and radical environmentalists, hand in glove, for years have thwarted both conservation and exploration.
True, in a perfect world, the market would teach Detroit not to build gas-hungry big cars. Yet in the here and now, we are needlessly burning scarce fuel as too many 7,000-pound mammoths deliver single 180-pound drivers to work - while the auto industry continues on its path to irrelevance.
Meanwhile, green politicians may not want messy oilrigs off their coasts, or tankers up north among the ice and polar bears. But so far very few of them have sworn off jet travel, nice cars or ample homes.
Oil companies claim that they are only passing along escalating costs from overseas suppliers over which they have no control. But around a third of our oil is pumped here at home.
Think about it: The cost to extract oil from existing older wells is relatively fixed. For much of the 1990s and early 2000s, oil prices had been steady at between $20 and $30 a barrel (when adjusted for inflation) - and domestic oil companies did quite well. So now at near $100 a barrel, these corporations are raking additional profits of over $60 a barrel - potentially a domestic windfall of hundreds of billions of dollars each year.
Is there an easy way out of the mess we've gotten ourselves into?
Maybe a Silicon Valley genius inventor or entrepreneur will step forward with a breakthrough new energy source.
Maybe our government will start a crash project on the scale of the Manhattan Project to conserve and produce more fuels.
Maybe China and India will consider radical conservation measures.
Maybe countries like Iraq, Libya and Russia will start reinvesting in their oil infrastructures and double production.
Maybe the Middle East will finally settle down and soothe jittery oil speculators.
Those are too many maybes to wait for while our way of life hangs in the balance. It is past time to demand from our presidential candidates, as well as the current government, exactly when and how they plan to slay this many-headed oil monster.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Gunmen opened fire on students returning from a march Wednesday in which 80,000 people denounced President Hugo Chavez's attempts to expand his power. At least eight people were injured, including one by gunfire, officials said.
At least two people were shot at a Venezuelan university on Wednesday after a large student protest against President Hugo Chavez's drive to scrap term limits in a December referendum, authorities said.
Barack Obama complained on Wednesday about an Internet photo that claims the Democratic presidential candidate did not hold his hand over his heart during the traditional pledge to the American flag. "This is so irritating," Obama said when asked about the photo in Muscatine, Iowa. 
Commodity currencies, including the likes of the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars, are set to be the major gainers from the latest bout of dollar weakness. The dollar was sent tumbling in early trade after a Chinese official said China should consider shifting its forex reserves to "stronger" currencies, sparking talk of further reserve diversification. The news only served to add to the growing list of reasons to sell the US dollar, including ongoing credit concerns and an ailing economy.
