[ZeroHedge] Bright MLS, one of the largest multiple listing services in the US, just recently cautioned real estate agents and industry professionals: A toxic mix of a "new Presidential administration and higher-than-expected mortgage rates contributed to a slow start to the 2025 housing market" across the Washington, DC, metro area, plus surrounding counties in Northern Virginia and Maryland. Now, the floodgates have opened—active listings are soaring, and jobless claims are spiking across the region, as the writing's on the wall: an economic downturn is just ahead for the federal bureaucracy as 'DC Swamp' draining accelerates.
Let's start with the DC housing market and surrounding area trends.
Bright MLS' latest monthly housing report for the Mid-Atlantic residential market, covering market trends through January, revealed a significant increase in active listings compared to the same period last year.
While a rise in listings is typical during a presidential transition year—especially ahead of the spring selling season—the region's heavy concentration of federal workers is a major cause for concern in the era of President Trump and Elon Musk's DOGE. That's because, as of last week, Trump had already slashed 275,000 federal jobs.
Last month, local residential markets in Washington, DC, and surrounding counties in Northern Virginia and Maryland, saw a sharp increase in active listings, averaging 22.8%. Notably, Falls Church City, Virginia, experienced a 78.6% surge, followed by a 68.8% jump in Fairfax City, a 50.5% increase in Alexandria City, and a 33.5% uptick in Montgomery County, Maryland. These markets have a high concentration of federal workers, many of whom have spent their entire careers in the government without little to no experience in the private sector.
The flood of active listings across the DC-Maryland-North Central Virginia areas occured when borrowing costs are at elevated levels. Data from Bright MLS' T3 Home Demand Index shows that February has so far been "Slow" and/or "limited."
In other words, a supply imbalance across the DC region could drive housing prices lower.
Six months from now the poor darlings will be desperate for any offer, never mind a good one.
Housing market softness comes as President Trump and Musk's DOGE eliminated 275,000 federal workers. This includes 75,000 who accepted the buyout and 200,000 workers on probation—those who have been in their roles for less than a year or, in some cases, up to two years.
So far, Labor Department figures not adjusted for seasonal factors show that 4,000 workers in DC have already filed for unemployment insurance.
Meanwhile, in Maryland, swamp draining by Trump and DOGE could push the state on a crash course to a "deep recession" because of the already dire fiscal situation produced by far-left Democratic lawmakers, including Gov. Wes Moore.
A large asset management company that operates in the region told us weeks ago that the financial situation in Maryland is so dire that they don't even recommend the state's muni bonds to their clients - and have instructed some clients to leave the state because of tax hike fears.
What may unfold is an economic downturn that could rip through the unaccountable federal bureaucracy in the DC Swamp that won't get a bailout this time from taxpayers.
In November, the median home in the nation’s capital was worth $699,000, according to Redfin.
By February, the median home value dropped 20 percent, bringing the price down to $560,000.
TKL found there are now nearly 8,000 homes listed for sale in the Washington, DC metro area, and almost half of them have been put on the market in the last 30 days.
There has also been a surge in new listings of homes over $1 million. According to TKL, there are 525 listings worth $1 million and 44 listings worth $5 million, suggesting DOGE layoffs could affect people in high-profile jobs.
Redfin agents in Washington, DC, reported that return-to-office mandates and uncertainty for federal workers have caused a listing surge.
#11
@5
"Fire them all, hire back the ones we authentically need. I'm OK with this."
I prefer not to run my company this way. But then again, I KNOW who I need.
Posted by: European Conservative ||
02/17/2025 10:03 Comments ||
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#12
There's a certain "Baby with the bathwater" uneasiness involved. Of course, that leads back to 1950's thinking that the gov't could actually get stuff done. FEMA kind of takes the air out of that one.
#13
#4,5 There was a case in Tel Aviv U. where an entire department in Medical faculty was abolished for a day (nullifies tenure) and then all the personel - bar one - were rehaired with full restitution.
Yes. And you are not in a hostile takeover situation, where a large but unknown proportion of the staff have for nearly a decade been actively acting to undermine your orders while lying to you and your C Suite by omission and commission.
#16
I prefer not to run my company this way. But then again, I KNOW who I need.
If you run a for profit business, you must know who you need and who you don't or else you won't profit. Unfortunately, our federal government is not like that. They just tax and borrow to support all their bloat and corruption. It's high time we put a stop to it.
Posted by: Abu Uluque ||
02/17/2025 12:42 Comments ||
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#17
And again, having worked in the private sector and having experienced layoffs, I sympathize with people who lose their job. But we can't keep people on the payroll if their services are no longer required. That's wasteful. We can't people on the payroll if they are incompetent, refuse to do their jobs or actively undermine the policies of elected office holders. And I don't see any reason why government workers should never fear that they might lose their job. Without that fear there is no accountability and, as a taxpayer, I demand accountability.
Posted by: Abu Uluque ||
02/17/2025 12:58 Comments ||
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#18
In the biggest house recession in 2007/2008 the one area that never saw a drop in housing prices was Arlington VA. Looks like Karma is visiting Arlington VA.
#19
As you consider the human, sympathetic side of what is happening in the DC area, take a look at this and consider the role those folks historically and collectively played in saddling YOU and you grand-kids with this mess!
#25
This reminds me of what happened to many IBMers in 1993, when IBM laid off 60000. The Hudson Valley was particularly hard hit - there were 3 sites in the valley.
When I started in 1969, they bragged that IBM hadn't laid people off even during the Depression.
[MSN-Times of India] In a scene that has captured international attention, the chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, was visibly moved to tears during the closing remarks of the 61st MSC event. This emotional display followed a speech by US Vice President JD Vance, in which he delivered a scathing critique of European leaders, likening them to Communist 'Commissars' and questioning the decline of free speech in Europe.
Vance’s speech on Friday provoked a significant emotional reaction from attendees, including Heusgen, who has served as MSC chairman since 2022. The conference, traditionally a platform for dialogue between transatlantic allies, experienced a moment of palpable tension as Heusgen reflected on the impact of Vance’s words. “With (convenor of the MSC) Ewald von Kleist, this conference started as a transatlantic conference, but after the speech by Vice President Vance on Friday, we must fear that our common value base is not so common anymore,” Heusgen remarked, his voice breaking with emotion.
This incident comes at a time when US-European relations are under strain, with Vance’s address highlighting deep-seated concerns regarding freedom of speech, political correctness, and the handling of migration policies within the European Union. His comments have sparked wider debate on the shared values and priorities between the US and Europe, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The emotional response from Heusgen, who is typically known for his composed demeanour, underscores the seriousness with which European leaders are taking the criticisms from across the Atlantic. Social media reactions have been swift, with some questioning the stability and credibility of current European governance, while others have pointed out the irony of European leaders’ past reactions to US political figures, particularly former President Donald Trump’s warnings about reliance on Russian energy.
The Munich Security Conference, traditionally a forum for fostering cooperation, has thus become a focal point for illustrating the current frictions in US-Europe relations. As the conference concluded, the incident left many reflecting on the future of transatlantic alliances and the unity of democratic values that once seemed unshakeable.
The implications of Vance’s speech, coupled with Heusgen’s emotional reaction, continue to ripple through political circles, with discussions now centred not only on the critique of European leadership but also on the broader consequences for international security and cooperation. As the world watches, the incident at the MSC serves as a poignant reminder of the challenges ahead in maintaining a united front against global threats.
#6
If Starmer thinks Trump will back him up on this one he's sadly mistaken. Trump has never forgotten the Christopher Steel "Russia, Russia, Russia," BS.
[GatewayPundit] Elon Musk’s DOGE Team Uncovers Over 25 Million People Ages 100+ in Social Security Database, Some Older Than the Constitution: “There are a Lot of Vampires Collecting Social Security”
Elon Musk’s DOGE team has unearthed jaw-dropping irregularity from the U.S. Social Security database.
The numbers are truly mind-boggling: over 25 million Americans registered aged 100 and older, with some purportedly older than the U.S. Constitution itself.
Late Sunday night, Musk tweeted a staggering claim accompanied by a table of ages, suggesting that the Social Security Administration might be paying out benefits to “vampires.”
“According to the Social Security database, these are the numbers of people in each age bucket with the ‘death’ field set to FALSE. Maybe Twilight is real, and there are a lot of vampires collecting Social Security,” Musk quipped.
According to the Social Security database, these are the numbers of people in each age bucket with the death field set to FALSE!
Maybe Twilight is real and there are a lot of vampires collecting Social Security 🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/ltb06VX98Z
As of 2024, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that approximately 101,000 Americans are aged 100 and older, representing about 0.03% of the total U.S. population.
This group, known as centenarians, is projected to more than quadruple over the next three decades, reaching around 422,000 by 2054, according to the Pew Research Center.
Individuals aged 110 and above are referred to as supercentenarians, a subgroup that is exceedingly rare. As of February 2025, the Gerontology Research Group reported that 136 Americans belong to this category.
Currently, the oldest living American is Naomi Whitehead, born on September 26, 1910, in Georgia, making her 114 years old. The longest-lived person in U.S. history is Sarah Knauss, who lived to be 119 years and 97 days, passing away on December 30, 1999.
#1
I probably mentioned this story previously but years ago my daughter had a part-time job at Panera. A young immigrant working there said he had 3 jobs but technically he was only permitted to have one based on his immigration status. So he had 3 different SSA #. Sooner or later he was going to figure out how to milk the system in multiple states and addresses.
#3
64 million more people in the database than the current population of the US AND those who have died since the system was organized in the 1930's. And how did ANYONE manage to file for social security with an age of over 300???
#4
Wouldn’t it be lovely if it turns out, once the data base is cleaned up, Social Security isn’t about to go broke after all? I’m less sanguine about Medicare, but even so.
#5
Direct deposit into a joint checking account held by the dead beneficiary and his/her spouse, son, daughter, former business partner, whatever or whoever. SS just keeps depositing that money month after month...
But, hey, what if there is a secret society of people who have figured out how to live that long?
Posted by: Abu Uluque ||
02/17/2025 13:18 Comments ||
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#6
...that how the Japanese were regarded as the longest living population. Relatives weren't reporting deaths to keep the pension money flowing.
They're not even counting the number of people who the government has extended benefits to who never paid into the system.
#11
Running sanity checks on a database is 1st year community college data processing. Same with checking a list of the recently deceased against the voter registration roles. Seems like something auditors would insist on, at least in the private sector.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
