Former Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair said Sunday he expects low-level military conflict between North and South Korea as the South, out of patience with Pyongyang, starts to forcefully retaliate against military provocation.
Mostly correct; it won't be 'low'-level for very long ...
Blair, who recently returned from a trip to South Korea, predicted on CNN's State of the Union that the South's new stance means it "will be taking military action against North Korea."
Blair said a full-scale war will not occur because North Korea recognizes major military aggression against South Korea will cause "the end of the regime."
Does Kimmie truly understand that? Does Sonny-Boy? Perhaps the Chinese do, but will they restrain the Norks? Those of us who think that the Chinese have a firm grip on the Nork leash will certainly see that tested, won't we.
"But I think there is going to be a military confrontation at lower levels," he said, because the South will no longer accept a pattern where North Korean provocations is followed by bargaining -- and the North later reneging on agreements.
South Korea has reconsidered its longstanding policy of patience with the North following two incidents where the North went further than in recent years, Blair noted. On Nov. 23, four South Koreans were killed an artillery barrage by North Korea on a South Korean island. That followed an incident in which a South Korean ship near the sea border with North Korea blew up, killing more than 40 sailors.
Blair said he agreed with South Korea that the North had torpedoed the ship. Pyongyang has denied doing so.
While the Obama administration has urged South Koreans to use restraint in relations with the North, Blair said South Koreans are responding to political pressure to toughen their stance.
"It's a tougher South Korean attitude with wide popular support," he said. "In fact, a South Korean government who does not react would not be able to survive."
#1
If the Chinese cut off food, it would then mean the Norks had to choose between all-in or all-out. If the go for it, they would have to get food from somewhere, and they couldn't scorch all of South Korea or there would be nothing left to eat.
#2
I think Kim knows that a war would mean the end of North Korea as a political entity, but I'm willing to bet that if it looks like the regime is about to fall he'll decide to attack Seoul in the hope that the PRC will intervene on his behalf.
#3
If the North Koreans are insane enough to shell Seoul, it is the end of their regime period. The only rationale for the South Koreans to restrain themselves will be removed and the South Korean military will break the North Korean attacks and move north to Pyongyang. The Chinese have too much to lose economically to involve themselves in a border clash with the South Koreans, so they will move their troops probably 25 miles south of the Yalu River and dig in. That give the Chinese control of several very important mines, and a nice easy to monitor border with the newly-expanded South Korea. It is also the effective limit to the Chinese Army's transport system - 25 miles before all hell breaks loose with resupply.
#4
If the ChiComs were to draw a line from Yongbyon and Hamhung in North Korea, they would effectively control all of the major mining areas of North Korea and still be about 50 miles north of Pyongyong. Since the Korean peninsula pinches in at that location, the ChiComs could easily create a rump People's Republic of Korea, and hold that border.
#5
A couple of major rail lines meet just east of Yongbyon which would let the ChiComs move more troops and supplies to the area than would be normal if they relied on their truck transport. That is why I think they would draw the line at that point, they can keep their troops and the North Koreans supplied much more efficiently along the rail lines, than relying on the poor quality North Korean road system.
#6
"Kim knows that a War would mean the end of North Korea as a Political Entity" > War or Sino-DPRK FTA = Free Trade, which IMO is the real reason Pyongyang sent an envoy to RUSSIA.
DPRK DOING AN [anti-China]"VIETNAM"???
* ION YONHAP > US EXPERT CALLS FOR INCREASING AMERICAN TROOP PRESENCE IN SOUTH KOREA TO DETER NORTH KOREAN PROVOCATIONS.
* PEOPLES DAILY FORUM > JAPAN'S DEPLOYMENT OF PATRIOT PAC-3's WILL COMPLICATE THE KOREAN SITUATION.
* TOPIX > MULLEN: RISK OF WAR RISING ON KOREAN PENINSULA.
* TOPIX > {SK INTEL Official] REPORT: NORTH KOREA MAY BE OPERATING 3-4 MORE URANIUM SITES.
* TOPIX > JAPAN'S ERA OF POSTWAR PACIFISM MAY BE COMING TO AN END.
#7
Don't think the Chinese could easily set up a defensive position. Remember how Rwandan rebels conquered Zaire a few years back? South Korea could easily do the same to China. There is a national democratic (Rich) government ready to go in the Republic of China (Taiwan) and everyone hates the corrupt communists. It is just a matter of putting all the pieces together.
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