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2022-10-14 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

The Costs of Germany's Support for Ukraine-Peter Zeihan

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Posted by DarthVader 2022-10-14 07:47|| || Front Page|| [11133 views ] Top

#1 Interesting comment at the link:

Thorben Emig
3 hours ago (edited)
Very well explained, Mr. Zeihan.
Being German myself, it struck me as well that there is a great amount of anger, sometimes mixed with historical animosity and phobia towards Germany and Germans on this particular war effort and in general.

I think what a lot of people don't get about Germany is that 1st it's a very old country, 2nd its a democracy (so prone to peace dividend consumption) and 3rd very exposed to all sorts of conflicts (which it has collective memory of). So Germany is old and scared.

It is true that we are depended a great deal on those natural resources from Russia. We entered into this dependency because of an appeasing attitude towards the reactionary forces in Russia.

Appeasement now is seen as weakness and an invitation, but what a lot of people miss is that this appeasement bought us time. It took Russia 30 years to decide that it wanted more land, which it might had done in the 90 or early 2000s without our entanglement.
And Minsk 1 and 2 bought Ukraine time to get its defences ready for 2022.

Now that appeasement has failed, Germany was forced to make strategic decisions. Those are:

1. Accept that appeasement no longer works to buy time.
2. Go West
3. Up our own defences.
4. reorient our industry, so that we might experience temporary recession, but no breakdown.

I agree that Germany will lose competitiveness in the short term, but I disagree with you @Zeihan on Geopolitics that in the mid term we will deindustrialise.
We will come back from this, better militarily, more Western, and with a role to play. There is a chance in every crisis, and I have hope that economically we will adapt to this and add strength to the West as a hole.

But for now, we are busy organising and taking blame from everyone (as always).

Posted by trailing wife 2022-10-14 10:21|| 2022-10-14 10:21|| Front Page Top

#2 This is an interesting point for the Germans in history. Before when they had shortages and felt vulnerable they went to war. But they had hostile countries on their borders. This is the first time in a long time they have allies all around them. The French might be snippy about help but as long as Germany works against Russia the Poles will help. The Nordic countries also are friendly which usually wasn't the case historically.

Interesting times.

I think Germany will have a painful decade or so as they retool, but in the end will come out stronger for it.

Posted by DarthVader 2022-10-14 10:24|| 2022-10-14 10:24|| Front Page Top

#3 Probably not a decade, 5 years maybe.
Serious miscalculations were made in the last decade.
The idea to "tame" the Russians with mutual economic dependency wasn't stupid... as long as it worked.

Germany will survive. I'm less sure about Russia in its current borders.

Posted by European Conservative 2022-10-14 11:51|| 2022-10-14 11:51|| Front Page Top

#4 Probably not a decade, 5 years maybe.

Hope so. Loss of energy for the heavy industry will hurt. The EU needs Germany as an economic motor so the faster it gets back up the better Europe's life will be.

Posted by DarthVader 2022-10-14 12:13|| 2022-10-14 12:13|| Front Page Top

#5 Call this "Morgenthau's Revenge".

One way or the other, Germany will be deindustrialized. Just like the American Rust Belt. German products are simply no longer competitive. This is not something that can be reversed, not after the Americans blew up Nordstream.

Germans, it's time to learn to code.

Posted by Punky Elmigum9411 2022-10-14 15:44|| 2022-10-14 15:44|| Front Page Top

#6 Deindustrialization is a long-term phenomenon.

Think: Detroit.

It’s not a recession or even a depression. The term refers to a permanent and significant decline in living standards, wealth, power and influence.

Posted by Chaim 2022-10-14 15:53|| 2022-10-14 15:53|| Front Page Top

#7 Probably not a decade, 5 years maybe.

Our prayers for Germany that this is so, European Conservative.

Posted by trailing wife 2022-10-14 21:34|| 2022-10-14 21:34|| Front Page Top

#8 Germany rides the fence. Whichever side they fall on, may it be hard enough to learn em.

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-10-14 22:44|| 2022-10-14 22:44|| Front Page Top

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