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2022-06-19 Economy

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Posted by Besoeker 2022-06-19 03:08|| || Front Page|| [11128 views ] Top

#1 Not entirely true. Every "peak oil" prediction for the last half century has failed to materialize because of technology advances.

The obvious solution to our current malaise is to produce more, build more pipelines and refineries, and immediately revoke America's foolish, ruinous, self-destructive sanctions.

End the sanctions, now. Unleash the world's greatest oil companies to invest in exploration, production, R&D and refining capacity.

Posted by Palmerston 2022-06-19 08:34|| 2022-06-19 08:34|| Front Page Top

Photo depicts an oilfield power driven pump near Palestine, IL. Circa 1909 "technology." Still pumping last week, along with a 6 other units connected to the power. Power sits back in the woods and runs on propane. Many used to run on regulated natural gas from the wellhead. This well (termed shallow) is probably in the 1000-1300 foot depth range. Oil from this well is pumped via a 2 inch underground line back to a set of tanks in the woods. Tank trucks pump it out and take it to the refinery, trunk line, or larger tanks when the smaller tanks are full. An operator known as a "pumper" manages the process at the wellhead and power. The operation is termed a "lease" and is, or was generally named after the property owner, ie, the 'Johnson Lease' 'Goodson lease', etc. A lease could have numerous fractional owners or heirs due to family inheritances, farm sales, etc. 'Mineral rights' are oftentimes retained by the original owners.

Farmers used to complain about having to farm around the elevated rod lines. Not much complaining going on today at $110. per barrel. Only a hand full of old oilfield powers operate today.

Posted by Besoeker 2022-06-19 09:11|| 2022-06-19 09:11|| Front Page Top

#3 The oil price is ultimately responsible for about 70% of the inflation index:

"Energy prices have become the main driver of G7 inflation. Changes in the oil price lagged by one to four months explain 70% of the monthly change in the CPI, according to an Asia Times study.

"The sensitivity of the US Consumer Price Index to the oil price, moreover, was about twice as high during the February 2020 to May 2022 period than it had been during the preceding 15 years, the study shows."

Posted by Palmerston 2022-06-19 09:30|| 2022-06-19 09:30|| Front Page Top

#4 Biden tries to climb down from Ukraine ledge
Twin strategic and economic crises prompt search for a way out of Ukraine trap
By DAVID P. GOLDMAN
Asia Times
JUNE 17, 2022

"President Joe Biden’s administration faces a double disaster after its Ukraine miscalculation, namely a US recession and a second strategic humiliation in the space of a year. The US economy is almost certainly in recession, while oil prices drive inflation that has cut workers’ real pay by about 6% year on year.

"Washington’s earlier boasts of driving Russian President Vladimir Putin from power, destroying Russia’s capacity to make war and halving the size of the Russian economy look ridiculous in retrospect....

"The world economy is reeling from supply shocks in energy and food provoked by Western sanctions on Russia. Monetary policy can reduce inflation only by forcing consumers to stop buying, which forces retailers to liquidate inventory at lower prices and crushes demand for raw materials – a cure that is worse than the disease.

"Russia meanwhile earned a record €93 billion (US$97 billion) from energy exports during the first 100 days of the war, a Finnish study concluded. China and India, which refused to join Group of Seven sanctions against Russia, reportedly are buying oil at a discount of $30 to $40 per barrel, while American and European consumers are paying the full price..."

Posted by Palmerston 2022-06-19 09:35|| 2022-06-19 09:35|| Front Page Top

#5 China and India, which refused to join Group of Seven sanctions against Russia, reportedly are buying oil at a discount of $30 to $40 per barrel, while American and European consumers are paying the full price

Biden and his son are CCP agents.

The Big Guy probably gets kickbacks on China's discounted Russian oil buys from that bogus Chinese "energy company" that his corrupt crackhead son did a joint venture with after he flew with his Vice President dad to Beijing on Air Force Two

Posted by Don Vito Snoth5891 2022-06-19 09:41|| 2022-06-19 09:41|| Front Page Top

#6 /\ Sort of a COSTCO buyers club discounted arrangement. Certain fees may apply.

Posted by Besoeker 2022-06-19 10:08|| 2022-06-19 10:08|| Front Page Top

#7 The Fed is fighting inflation using an old playbook
Raising interest rates discourages investment in homes cars and capital goods
This inflation is being driven by energy policy and you can’t discourage inelastic demand people have to buy gas and groceries no matter what the cost
Jacking the prime rate won’t touch that
It will make investment in energy more expensive and exacerbate the cost of fuel

Posted by Sock Puppet of Doom 2022-06-19 10:35|| 2022-06-19 10:35|| Front Page Top

/\ Lionel my old friend. Those are splendid looking new wellingtons, but why are there holes in the toes ?

So the water will drain out of course !

Posted by Besoeker 2022-06-19 11:57|| 2022-06-19 11:57|| Front Page Top

#9 Yes, there's another person with an semi-WASP name here to lecture us about how the main problem with the shut-down American oil industry is that it isn't going to work for Russia. Yeah, right.

In other news:

Biden and his son are CCP agents.

The Big Guy probably gets kickbacks on China's discounted Russian oil buys from that bogus Chinese "energy company" that his corrupt crackhead son did a joint venture with after he flew with his Vice President dad to Beijing on Air Force Two

Well, that's a definite possibility if you have overlooked all the evidence that they're also agents of Putin's. Which is what they try to distract away from with their flood.

Posted by Thing From "Angleton-99-666" Mountain 2022-06-19 13:50|| 2022-06-19 13:50|| Front Page Top

#10 You're trying, son, but you miss the point. The sanctions are not hurting Russia anywhere near as much as they are hurting America, Britain and Europe. Sanctions are what football (soccer to you) fans call an own goal.

It matters not a whit if removing the sanctions helps Putin. Doing so helps us. If we want to avoid years of hyperinflation and a nasty recession, there is no alternative to lifting the sanctions. Our leaders should stop being so emotional and start using their brains for once.

Posted by Palmerston 2022-06-19 13:58|| 2022-06-19 13:58|| Front Page Top

#11 You're trying, son, but you miss the point.

You miss the point because it's against your slimy fucking lies.

The sanctions are not hurting Russia anywhere near as much as they are hurting America, Britain and Europe. Sanctions are what football (soccer to you) fans call an own goal.

You think this is about the sanctions when Putin's appeasing agent Biden and his predecessors has done everything in his power to SHUT DOWN the American oilfield? Not to mention the effect of banning coal in such a way that it has to be replaced with natural gas.

It matters not a whit if removing the sanctions helps Putin. Doing so helps us.

Who the fuck is "us?" You weren't here for the past thirteen years of aggresive sanctions against the _American_ oilfield but you came out of nowhere in 2022 to tell us all about how the real problem is we're not going along with Putin?

If we want to avoid years of hyperinflation and a nasty recession, there is no alternative to lifting the sanctions. Our leaders should stop being so emotional and start using their brains for once.

Again, "we?" You laid the groundwork for the hyperinflation and economic contraction with your silence during the last fourteen years of war on the US energy sector.

If appeasing Putin but keeping the foot on the neck of the American oilfield _doesn't_ do anything to halt hyperinflation can Ukraine get their country back? Will you even be here for that conversation or will "you" vanish and another nym from the boilerroom be in your place?

You're basically a propagandist trying to extinguish the argument for American energy production by flooding the zone with non-sequiturs. You're not going to say it's impossible but you refuse to say that anything _is_ possible except for appeasing Putin. You and Biden are codependent in this manner.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2022-06-19 14:31|| 2022-06-19 14:31|| Front Page Top

#12 "Got toenail fungus? It's all Biden's fault because of the sanctions! Lift them and Putin will provide a cure, and end your suffering!"

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2022-06-19 14:39|| 2022-06-19 14:39|| Front Page Top

#13 Putin will provide a cure, and end your suffering!"

Just don't be surprised when he invades your metatarsals.

Posted by SteveS 2022-06-19 14:47|| 2022-06-19 14:47|| Front Page Top

#14 America was not only supplying its own oil needs through January 2021, but had become a major exporter and the primary driver for for low oil prices worldwide — much to President Putin’s frustration. President Biden reversed that, as so much else, which helps Russia while making things difficult for China — though abetting China’s economic war against the U.S.

Posted by trailing wife 2022-06-19 15:20|| 2022-06-19 15:20|| Front Page Top

#15 Russia is running out of soldiers

And yet his paid keyboardists still show up to proclaim how it's in "our" interests to stop the sanctions SO MUCH!

Posted by Frank G 2022-06-19 16:16|| 2022-06-19 16:16|| Front Page Top

#16 Conservative Russians throw curves,
Discussing, maneuvring with verve,
Saying "neocon c---,"
Sending Frankie to front...
Where they'll follow on finding their nerve.

Posted by Bob White3967 2022-06-19 16:43|| 2022-06-19 16:43|| Front Page Top

#17 You know there is a difference between soldiers and cannon fodder. I doubt Russia is running out of the latter. A German leader found that out to his sanguine.

Posted by Procopius2k 2022-06-19 16:54|| 2022-06-19 16:54|| Front Page Top

#18 Palmerston is right. There is no excess refining capacity in the US -- none. Chevron's CEO talked about this the other day. So y'all can bitch all you like about Biden's screw ups but that horse has left the barn. The only way to push prices down in the next 18 months is by dumping Russian and Saudi oil on the market.

Posted by Oil Derek 2022-06-19 18:53|| 2022-06-19 18:53|| Front Page Top

#19 What did we do with all the extra oil we were pumping 2 1/2 years ago, Oil Derek? Because it was getting refined somewhere.

Posted by trailing wife 2022-06-19 18:57|| 2022-06-19 18:57|| Front Page Top

#20 Even worse than that. We are screwed if we don't get Russian oil on the market again.

Chevron CEO: There may never be another refinery built in the US again

Posted by Oil Derek 2022-06-19 18:58|| 2022-06-19 18:58|| Front Page Top

#21 tw: Biden's people shut them down.

Chevron CEO Wirth said, "Capacity is added by de-bottlenecking existing units by investing in existing refineries … but what we’ve seen over the last two years are shutdowns. We’ve seen refineries closed. We’ve seen units come down. We’ve seen refineries being repurposed to become bio refineries. And we live in a world where the policy, the stated policy of the U.S. government is to reduce demand for the products that refiners produce.”

Wirth said that the federal government’s current policy is to reduce the demand for oil, making it “very hard” in a company “where investments have a payout period of a decade or more.”

Posted by Oil Derek 2022-06-19 19:02|| 2022-06-19 19:02|| Front Page Top

#22 The analyst above us also right that Biden and Jay Powell are pursuing the absolute worst policy you could imagine. They're raising the cost of capital thus the hurdle rate for new projects, starving the American oil industry of investment and new capacity, while preventing Russian supply from reaching western buyers. A foreign enemy could not come up with a policy better designed to screw the American and European economies.

Posted by Oil Derek 2022-06-19 19:09|| 2022-06-19 19:09|| Front Page Top

#23 Except I'm pretty sure a foreign enemy _did_ come up with the plan.

Also, the refineries aren't the bottleneck. I think that's just another layer of scapegoating.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2022-06-19 19:25|| 2022-06-19 19:25|| Front Page Top

#24 There's nothing that can be done now about the lack of spare refinery capacity. The only thing to do is free up existing production, and the swing producer whether we like it or not is now Russia.

The guy above is right. Dump Russian oil on the market is unfortunately the only way out of this jam

Posted by Oil Derek 2022-06-19 19:35|| 2022-06-19 19:35|| Front Page Top

#25 So dumping Russian oil on the market is going to affect refining capacity how?

REFINERIES DON'T MAKE OIL.

Y'all's lies and half truths get more insulting by the hour.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2022-06-19 19:50|| 2022-06-19 19:50|| Front Page Top

#26 Top ten biggest refineries in the world.
How do we help them operate at peak capacity while we push an Operation Warp Speed to build several in CONUS?

https://www.iqpc.com/media/7791/11215.pdf

Posted by NoMoreBS 2022-06-19 20:04|| 2022-06-19 20:04|| Front Page Top

#27 tw: Biden's people shut them down.

Thank you, Oli Derek. I was discussing this with Mr. Wife over dinner tonight — he trained as a chemical engineer and worked with/on internal and external manufacturing throughout his career. He pointed out that just to restart a closed processing facility takes 18 months to 2 years, plus the cost of refurbishment of untouched equipment.

Posted by trailing wife 2022-06-19 20:36|| 2022-06-19 20:36|| Front Page Top

#28 I'm not into politics... just an oil guy with no dog in the Ukraine-Russia dustup, and I really don't care who "wins" over there.

It's just obvious to anyone who understands how the oil industry works that we the American people are losing from this crazy policy of punishing us in order to try to punish putin

Posted by Oil Derek 2022-06-19 21:41|| 2022-06-19 21:41|| Front Page Top

#29 It's really important to understand that this hyperinflation is not demand-driven. It's not a demand shock, it's a supply shock. There's not enough supply.

This insufficient supply is 100% a problem of US policy. It used to be just because Biden wanted to throttle American oil production but it's gone way beyond that. It's now about Biden's drive to starve the world of Russian oil.

That's a joke. The Chinese and Indians and even the Europeans are buying all the Russian oil they can get. Even at discount prices, the Russians are making money hand over fist.

There's just no other way to get out of this very deep hole we're in except to free up purchases by Europe and the US of Russian oil. You can bitch and moan all you like about putin but this is just the simple hard reality of the situation we're in.

Posted by Oil Derek 2022-06-19 22:01|| 2022-06-19 22:01|| Front Page Top

#30 ^ That's capitalism, Jake. The global markets don't give a fuck about your "morality".

Posted by Unusotle 2022-06-19 22:06|| 2022-06-19 22:06|| Front Page Top

#31 Biden's not a capitalist. He and Raytheon and the MIC and other Swampies are crony capitalists at best ... socialists at heart. These assholes wouldn't know a "supply shock" if it bit them in the balls

Posted by Billy Budd 2022-06-19 22:15|| 2022-06-19 22:15|| Front Page Top

#32 Which is why they don't understand the unintended consequences of their retarded sanctions

Posted by Crolusing Ulavise3940 2022-06-19 22:54|| 2022-06-19 22:54|| Front Page Top

#33 You miss the point because it's against your slimy fucking lies.

Drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.

As someone above said, Biden and Johnson aren't punishing Put

Posted by Mclaughlin, Tom 2022-06-19 23:01|| 2022-06-19 23:01|| Front Page Top

#34 Oh boy, another brand new person with a never before seen name and the same irritating as fuck "son" shit.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2022-06-19 23:49|| 2022-06-19 23:49|| Front Page Top

#35 It's just obvious to anyone who understands how the oil industry works that we the American people are losing from this crazy policy of punishing us in order to try to punish putin

It may be obvious to the Russian stooges that IT MUST NOT BE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE PAIN IS FROM BIDEN DESTROYING THE AMERICAN OILFIELD AND NOT FROM HIS HALFHEARTED FAKE ATTEMPTS AT FIGHTING PUTIN but what do I know, I don't have a fucking boiler room and don't enjoy seeing Rantburg turned into a czarist equivalent.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2022-06-19 23:54|| 2022-06-19 23:54|| Front Page Top

23:54 Thing From Snowy Mountain
23:49 Thing From Snowy Mountain
23:40 DooDahMan
23:39 DooDahMan
23:38 DooDahMan
23:01 Mclaughlin, Tom
22:58 trailing wife
22:54 Crolusing Ulavise3940
22:37 badanov
22:15 Billy Budd
22:06 Unusotle
22:01 Oil Derek
21:41 Oil Derek
21:39 SteveS
21:34 trailing wife
21:24 trailing wife
20:59 Lord Garth
20:52 badanov
20:48 Omineling Forkbeard1962
20:36 trailing wife
20:04 NoMoreBS
19:50 Thing From Snowy Mountain
19:35 Oil Derek
19:32 Airandee