Article

2020-08-14 -Short Attention Span Theater-

Exponential growth bias: The numerical error behind Covid-19

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Posted by Skidmark 2020-08-14 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11130 views ] Top

#1 Where do you get an R0 of >1? There are no hard and fast FACTS to back that up.

Posted by Marilyn Tojo7566 2020-08-14 01:11|| 2020-08-14 01:11|| Front Page Top

#2 Except 750000 dead.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-08-14 02:40|| 2020-08-14 02:40|| Front Page Top

#3 But it's not completely exponential it's more of a logistic map

Remember X(n+1) = RXn(1-Xn) because as more people catch it, it's harder to spread.

This function is actually chaotic (in parts).

BBC drivel here A simple mathematical mistake may explain why many people underestimate the dangers of coronavirus, shunning social distancing, masks and hand-washing.

So why are we not all trillionaires? Because the growth rate of an exponential function HAS to fall as it's change spreads!

This article is so stupid only an academic would think its useful.

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2020-08-14 02:43|| 2020-08-14 02:43|| Front Page Top

#4 ^So when 150 million Americans will become infected, the infection rate will start going down?

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-08-14 03:00|| 2020-08-14 03:00|| Front Page Top

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2020-08-14 03:21|| 2020-08-14 03:21|| Front Page Top

#6 750,000 dead is a lie.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-08-14 03:30|| 2020-08-14 03:30|| Front Page Top

#7 You called me a liar for stating the fact that since July 5 times more have died from Flu.

If there's a liar it's the poster called Grom hiding from reality.

The population lockdown (as opposed to protecting the vulnerable 0.05%) was OBVIOUSLY a terrible mistake. Continuing it compounds the disaster.

Excess mortality is under average!

End the disaster caused by government over-reaction.

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2020-08-14 04:20|| 2020-08-14 04:20|| Front Page Top

#8 Won't argue with you any more than I'd argue with a creationist.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-08-14 04:36|| 2020-08-14 04:36|| Front Page Top

#9 "when 150 million Americans will become infected, the infection rate will start going down?"
Of course. That which cannot continue indefinitely will not. In fact, it looks like only about 70 million will ever get infected, for whatever reason. Seems like around 1.5 million will probably die. It will take several years.

Posted by Glenmore 2020-08-14 11:17|| 2020-08-14 11:17|| Front Page Top

#10 ^I was talking about specific equation, Glen.

Posted by g(r)omgoru PB 2020-08-14 11:25|| 2020-08-14 11:25|| Front Page Top

#11 'Coronavirus is a poor person's virus': Silcon Valley's elite are throwing lavish parties where guests take 15-minute rapid COVID tests and use private jets to hop from one 'safe' city to the next as they ride out the pandemic

Posted by Skidmark 2020-08-14 11:28|| 2020-08-14 11:28|| Front Page Top

#12 Dr Fauci tells Matthew McConaughey that the death toll would be 'enormous' if the US tried to achieve herd immunity - as new CDC model projects 189,000 American fatalities by September 5

Posted by Skidmark 2020-08-14 11:29|| 2020-08-14 11:29|| Front Page Top

#13 Fascinating, #12. I got September3by averaging the death toll over the last 30 days (1,020) and dividing that into 189k-167,761=21 days from now.

Now that's 'science' you can reproduce! Assuming the average continues for the next 21 days.

Posted by Bobby 2020-08-14 15:09|| 2020-08-14 15:09|| Front Page Top

#14 Compound interest. My geometry teacher in 1965 read the class the story of John Jones Dollar.

Anybody else remember reading that story of how compound interest saved universal socialism?

Posted by Bobby 2020-08-14 15:21|| 2020-08-14 15:21|| Front Page Top

#15 The only creationist is Grom who thinks you could infect more people in an area than live there.

In the real world (not his badly programmed spreadsheets, where he doesnt really understand the maths) all exponents are bounded and the more expansion the more it's bounded.

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2020-08-14 15:36|| 2020-08-14 15:36|| Front Page Top

#16 750,000 dead is a lie.

Is an approximation.

Posted by swksvolFF 2020-08-14 22:22|| 2020-08-14 22:22|| Front Page Top

#17 It's rather obvious that in real life the exponential growth comes to an end, but not before 50-70% of people are infected.

If you do nothing, mandate nothing, the economic disaster kicks in a bit later, because once numbers of infected people reach catastrophic levels, people will socially distance without being told so, avoid shops and restaurants etc.

And since this is a new virus we don't know what damage it can do and could do in the future.

Posted by European Conservative 2020-08-14 23:06|| 2020-08-14 23:06|| Front Page Top

#18 Someone should paid some of those college students willing to risk getting the virus at Virus parties and spring break to be part in tests to see how infection it is for there age group.

Posted by rjschwarz 2020-08-14 23:24|| 2020-08-14 23:24|| Front Page Top

#19 because once numbers of infected people reach catastrophic levels, people will socially distance without being told so, avoid shops and restaurants etc.

That all started before it was mandated in my part of the country, once reports of the situation in Italy started to spread.

Posted by trailing wife 2020-08-14 23:42|| 2020-08-14 23:42|| Front Page Top

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