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2020-05-23 Science & Technology
Sweden still not close to herd immunity, death rate not slowing down
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Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-23 14:07|| || Front Page|| [2 views ]  Top

#1 ..and then there is Japan.
Posted by Procopius2k 2020-05-23 15:16||   2020-05-23 15:16|| Front Page Top

#2 ^
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-23 15:25||   2020-05-23 15:25|| Front Page Top

#3 Herd immunity is inversely related to R-naught, yes? Measles has a R-naught of 12-18, (super contagious) and needs 92-95% for herd immunity.

COVID-19 R-naught is estimated between 1.4 - 3.9, which suggests 29% to 70% for herd immunity. Wikipedia

I've seen lower R-naught numbers than 1.4, but ain't gonna bother finding that.
Posted by Bobby 2020-05-23 15:32||   2020-05-23 15:32|| Front Page Top

#4 My read, looking at Sweden’s curve, is that though they may not be locked down, they are strongly social distancing. Also, their numbers are distorted by excessive nursing home deaths.
Posted by KBK 2020-05-23 16:02||   2020-05-23 16:02|| Front Page Top

#5 ^(a) R0 estimates for CV19 are based on assumptions and ideological orientation. The biggest of which is that the infection rate is biliniar (R*S*I) the old Voltera-Lotka assumption. Today we know that the true relation is better described by Beddington-DiAngelis.
(b) The concept of herd immunity is strictly theoretical one (sans immunization) - look at your own wiki article which emphasizes "temporary" for the single counter-example.
In empirical terms we know that herd immunity kicks in after we vaccinate 70 - 90 % of the population (At least in some cases the Ro is then derived by using H = 1 - 1/Ro where H fraction of immune sufficient for herd immunity. That is, you don't derive H from Ro but vise versa.)
(c) Nobody has shown yet that there is immune memory for CV19. See also (evolutionary pressure in that wiki article).

The whole story of Herd Immunity for CV19, I commented on it several times - you can find evidence for yourself with a bit of research. The true story that all* first struck countries went with idea of herd immunity (because then you don't have to do anything) and switched after hospital morgues filled up. All countries except, Sweden (who has a low population density with habits close to socially isolation already) as well as stupidity/callousness and habit of preaching ethics from the backseat of civilization.

*The one exception is Japan when their habit of wearing masks in public - no doubt upgraded during the CV19 epidemic conferred phenotypic herd immunity.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-23 16:15||   2020-05-23 16:15|| Front Page Top

#6 I thought herd immunity was about the rate of spreading not the death rate. You could have herd immunity and contagion slowing down and still have a high death rate if the thing got into a vunerable population.
Posted by rjschwarz 2020-05-23 18:31||   2020-05-23 18:31|| Front Page Top

#7 Sweden knew they'd have a high death rate, just hopefully for a shorter period of time. At least that's how I undestood flattening the curve.
Posted by rjschwarz 2020-05-23 18:32||   2020-05-23 18:32|| Front Page Top

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