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2005-06-21 International-UN-NGOs

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Posted by Steve 2005-06-21 09:44|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 One could add Japan to this list if the situation warranted it doing so probably in short order. Right now I think the possbilty of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan is a remote possibility. Personaly I think the Indians developed their arsenal more with an eye on China. For the Israelis to use nucs I think would take a nuclear attack on them or their being in a position of looking at a total defeat of the IDF in the field. Unlikely IMO. North Korea is the wild card in this bunch. If they have an arsenal of 15 to 20 weapons they could threaten the South Koreans (or the Japanese) with the destruction of their population centers or simply try a pre-emptive attack. The greatest likely hood for this IMO would be a use it or loose it scenario.
The other possible nuclear regional powers such as Brazil really don't make a whole lot of sense. Why would Brazil want or need nuclear weapons. Its not as though they couldn't defeat any potential regional threat if they had to. The only way it makes sense for them to obtain nucs is to use them as a leverage device with the US and even then it does not make much sense. And if the Brazilians obtain nucs the some other nations in SA might make the decision to go nuclear too. Just what the world woulf need, another regional arms race. One possible nuclear nation that make some sort of sense is Indonesia from their view point. A large portion of world trade passes through Indonesian waters and at soe point in the future they may feel the need to flex their muscles. It doesn't make any sense to me but it could happen. Another possible reason is to threaten Australia. A large mostly empty neighbor right next door to a heavily populated island chain is a recipe for sleepless nights in Canberra. But if Indonesia does go nuclear I think it will be more of a response to Iran and Pakistan. If those Islamic nations go nuclear then why shouldn't the world's most populous Islamic nation go nuclear also.

Just my $.02

Posted by Cheaderhead 2005-06-21 15:22|| 2005-06-21 15:22|| Front Page Top

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