Article

2004-04-07 Iraq-Jordan

The Grand Ayatoldyaso Ali al-Sistani Speaks

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Posted by Steve 2004-04-07 3:54:59 PM|| || Front Page|| [2 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 This Khomeini lookalike should be presented with three choices: lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way.

Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2004-04-07 4:15:17 PM|| 2004-04-07 4:15:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 ITYM, "lead, follow, or be buried in a very small Ziploc bag".

Posted by Robert Crawford 2004-04-07 4:16:25 PM|| [http://www.kloognome.com] 2004-04-07 4:16:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 Pfft. Clerics staying out of the way of politics works just fine for me.

Let Sistani keep on being vague and uttering weak generic statements in favour of peace. Any cleric who doesn't interfere is an ally in the creation of a secular Iraq.

Posted by Aris Katsaris 2004-04-07 4:27:41 PM|| 2004-04-07 4:27:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 Sistani is still in Najaf. Najaf is controlled, apparently, by Sadr's Mehdi army. Sistani doesn't condemn Sadr.

Evidently Sistani is one muslim who DOESN'T want to become a martyr.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-04-07 4:31:52 PM|| 2004-04-07 4:31:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 I'd have to go with Liberalhawk and Aris Katsaris, here. We're not exactly in a position to protect Sistani from al Sadr's negative attentions. Not to mention that if we went into Najaf with guns blazing, we could just as easily kill Sistani in the collateral damage. This is one guy who actually *is* a cleric, as opposed to the usual run of gangster, political activist, or entrepreneur. He no doubt wants to be left alone, and the increasing level of irritation shown in his statements seem to reflect that sentiment.

Posted by Mitch H. 2004-04-07 4:41:41 PM|| [http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/] 2004-04-07 4:41:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Well if Sister Marie doesn't like it then throw that fuck in jail too. Tired of these don't take a side asshats.

Posted by Bill Nelson 2004-04-07 4:45:02 PM|| 2004-04-07 4:45:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 Aris--

Excellent comment.

But a secular Iraq is too much to hope for anytime soon. Don't know if these guys can handle it--and if they can't, then what's next?

Posted by BMN 2004-04-07 4:47:52 PM|| 2004-04-07 4:47:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 "Well if Sister Marie doesn't like it then throw that fuck in jail too. Tired of these don't take aside asshats."

so says someone behind a keyboard, somewhere in North America, I presume. Would you be so brave sitting in Sistani's office in Najaf, surrounding by Sadr's loonies waving their AK 47s and RPG's??

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-04-07 4:49:36 PM|| 2004-04-07 4:49:36 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Pretty simple:

1. Sistani has been a target of Sadr's thugs before, for being "too moderate".

2. Sistani is in a town rife with the Mahdi Sadr thugs now.

Ergo: Sistani is not able to freely speak his mind without risking his life.

I would have expected nothing less from him, nor anything more than the waffling appeal for peace.

We need to get a Spec Ops team in there to protect him, and then put in a battalion of the 75th Rangers to provide security to move him out (If they thought the Marines were tough, wait till they meet the Rangers).

Then put him on the bullhorn (TV, Radio, Newspapers) and let him hang Sadr out to dry.

Why would Sistani do this? It would cement his position as *the* Shia Leader for Iraq, plus paint him as a "moderate", and add an enormous amount of public pressure on the US to back him politically whether we like him or not. This ensures he will be a major force in the new government.

And on top of that, it insures the destruction of his opposition - the most radical fringe, which makes it even easier for Sistani to control all Shia by pointing out what happened to Sadr's people.

And he scores bonus points with the public in Iraq and the world by pointing out that Sadr "teamed with *spit* Sunnis and Iranian Agents" and put children and women in the line of fire.

Sistani has a lot of political gain here if he can get to a place where he can speak out - and time it right. I hope he is as "wise" as he apears to be.

IN the short run, its good for the US. I'm not so sure in the long run though - but for Sistani, its all good if he can do the things I outlined.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-04-07 4:56:59 PM|| 2004-04-07 4:56:59 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Wouldn't it be nice if Sistani and Sadr's boys got into a big fight and just happened to kill both Sis and Sad. The leadership gets capped and the US can't be blamed. Hey, I can dream can't I!

Posted by remote man 2004-04-07 5:26:56 PM|| 2004-04-07 5:26:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 I'm with Spook and 'Hawk on this one. Sistani is one of the friendlies--he may have his differences of opinion with us, but he's no enemy. I'm willing to cut the guy a bit of slack, if only because he's surrounded by blackshirts with AKs.

Posted by Mike 2004-04-07 5:44:12 PM|| 2004-04-07 5:44:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Old Spook,
That is some of the the first "think two moves ahead, grasshooper" analysis I have seen over my entire search of the blogs this afternoon...

Posted by Capsu78 2004-04-07 5:54:27 PM|| 2004-04-07 5:54:27 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 Old Spook, I like your analysis, and I know Sistani is not a dummy, but I am still sceptical he will actually play it that intelligently.

Hope I'm wrong.

Posted by Carl in N.H 2004-04-07 6:08:16 PM|| 2004-04-07 6:08:16 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Sistani might be the smartest cleric in Iraq today. He's very smooth, very sharp, and plays the political game very well by both Middle Eastern and American standards. We want him on our side, and Old Spook has got it right -- get him, protect him, and strike a deal with him.

Posted by Steve White 2004-04-07 6:15:31 PM|| 2004-04-07 6:15:31 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 khomeini would hane chance with me
too die

Posted by smokeysinse 2004-04-07 6:22:09 PM|| 2004-04-07 6:22:09 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 sorry i meant sistani an sadr

Posted by smokeysinse 2004-04-07 6:25:09 PM|| 2004-04-07 6:25:09 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 "Well if Sister Marie doesn't like it then throw that fuck in jail too. Tired of these don't take aside asshats."

so says someone behind a keyboard, somewhere in North America, I presume. Would you be so brave sitting in Sistani's office in Najaf, surrounding by Sadr's loonies waving their AK 47s and RPG's??

I didn't realize that was the situation. I take it then that the enemy of my enemy is my friend? I just have a basic suspicion about any Ayotollah. However thanks for the enlightenment. That is why Rantburg is so good. Facts and nothing but the facts

Posted by Bill Nelson 2004-04-07 6:25:49 PM|| 2004-04-07 6:25:49 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Capsu,

Its all part of the Daito-Ryu approach to Intel work.

See where your adversary is, see where his momentum is carrying him, and redirect him via his own nature and momentum to where he cannot harm you, and be there before he is there. And if you are really good at it, you will do it in a way that doesn't permanently damage your adversary either.

Problem is that this kind of thinking and action is not easily grasped by someone without the training and mindset, nor someone who has not conquered his ego enough to let himself win and let others take the credit. Real operators will know what I'm talking about.

This guy Sadr doesnt understand thinking ahead, is too powered by anger and his own lust for power, and thats why his "Army" is out there being chopped to pieces by US and Coalition troops, and will soon be abandoned by the society there.

With no sea to swim in, the Mahdi will soon flop around like fish on dry land - as long as we keep the pressure up and accept6 the casualties (which will become less and less on our side as time goes on).

Sistani can take advantage of this if we can point out to him the leverage he now has - and we can get himto safe haven -- but to be really effective we have to make it look like he did it himself with the help of Iraqi interim police and Iraqi Army forces.

Look for Jordanians to help out very quietly - they have some pros they can put in there that would be very effective.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-04-07 6:44:02 PM|| 2004-04-07 6:44:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 OldSpook: Would the majority of Iraqis be suspicious of Sistani's leadership if he is protected by US forces as you outlined? Would they consider him a "puppet" and write him off?

Posted by ex-lib 2004-04-07 7:22:28 PM|| 2004-04-07 7:22:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 Old Spook---Great insights! Always 2-3 steps ahead of the situation. You would have made a great instrument pilot. That is what it takes to stay alive in the air or ground, heh heh.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2004-04-07 8:05:37 PM|| 2004-04-07 8:05:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 I dont mean to say that Sistani is the greatest thing since sliced bread. As old spook says, in the long run strengthening Sistani may not be so great - the jury is still out on whether he really "gets" democracy, or just sees at as a way to a theocracy only somewhat more moderate than Irans. But he definitely seems to understand cause and effect, and is interested in dealing, at least in the short run. We definitely want him on our side, though we also dont want to pay too much to get him on our side.

But I dont see him as an enemy cause hes not coming out squarely for us now. Last reports DO put him in Najaf, and if Sadrs men arent right outside the door, its still quite dangerous.

Posted by liberalhawk 2004-04-07 9:59:35 PM|| 2004-04-07 9:59:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 Alaska, I was instrument rated at one time. Let it lapse. No twin turbine for me to fly, at least not anymore. Now, Im just a PPSE-L. With a lot of hours in the logbook (and some undocumented hours).

Still wonder what it would be like to fly a seaplane - those Otters sure do look cool.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-04-07 10:36:11 PM|| 2004-04-07 10:36:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]

Posted by mhw TROLL 2004-04-07 11:06:22 PM|| 2004-04-07 11:06:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#24 Sistani's Iranian, IIRC.

Posted by Anonymous2U 2004-04-08 12:37:14 AM|| 2004-04-08 12:37:14 AM|| Front Page Top

#25 zayed referred to him as Shitani a few days ago

Posted by mhw 2004-04-07 11:06:22 PM|| 2004-04-07 11:06:22 PM|| Front Page Top

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