Article

2004-04-07 Iraq-Jordan

Shiite Radicals Join with Sunni Insurgents in Ramadi

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Posted by Phil B 2004-04-07 2:33:30 AM|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 You are partly correct with you analysis Phil, but instead of thinking that Iran is behind (could be partly possible, I don't know) the upsurge of resistance you must not forget that underground resistance forces have had time to organise themselves. Especially in the villages there are no coalition forces (they are concentrated in the cities) to gain full control over Iraq, the result is that resistance / militia forces who control the towns do gain muscles and slip into the cities.

Posted by Murat 2004-04-07 3:40:48 AM|| 2004-04-07 3:40:48 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 question : why else would Sadr mention that 'they are now the arm of Hamas & Hezbollah in Irak' if his guys didn't have support from Iran ?

Posted by lyot 2004-04-07 5:01:03 AM|| 2004-04-07 5:01:03 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Iyot, I am not saying they have not, but support alone is not enough to organise resistance, they (Iraqis) be it Suni or Shia are in control of the villages while coalition forces control the cities. In the villages they have almost free hand and can recruit supporters and organise them. What I wanted to point out is that resistance can't be eradicated without controlling also the countryside, the limited number of coalition troops limits the control only to control over the big cities.

To make a plain comparisson Vietnam is a good example, the Vietcong controlled the countryside and jungle, that was their force. In Iraq it is comparable, if militia / resistance forces control the countryside (and they do), than it is almost impossible to stop the bloodshed and restoring order, even if Fallujah would be flattened completely it wont stop the insurgence.

Posted by Murat 2004-04-07 5:22:11 AM|| 2004-04-07 5:22:11 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Dear Murat:

I'm not saying your analysis is correct, but I remember you writing on the significance of Village life and politics in this conflict about a year ago. It is nice to see you making positive contribution again.

Posted by Traveller 2004-04-07 6:19:34 AM|| 2004-04-07 6:19:34 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Militaries need supplies, lots of them.
For them to maintain a successful insurgency, they need what LIC refers to as "an untouchable base of supply". In this case, they think they have one in Iran.

They are mistaken.

Posted by Dishman 2004-04-07 6:25:52 AM|| 2004-04-07 6:25:52 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Hello Traveller,

Not only the village life but also the tribal life is important in this case, the big wrong of the US or coalition forces are that they concentrate to much on Sadr or religious groups, while the actual power lies within the tribal societies.

For an American it is hard to understand the Middle East structures. Let me try to describe it this way Sadr gets his strength from tribes (better said tribal leaders) who support him, the big fish is not Sadr but a dozen or so tribal leaders. Neutralizing them would neutralize the whole resistance.

As long as the US lacks the needed intelligence (the biggest failure this far) she wont be able to quell the upsurge of insurgency. To my opinion the US has failed to ally enough tribal leaders what would have been far more effective than relying on Spanish, Italian etc. etc. coalition troops.

Posted by Murat 2004-04-07 7:13:51 AM|| 2004-04-07 7:13:51 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 Grain of salt time, it's DEBKA after all.

Murat, Sadr has little or no tribal support. They call him "the Iranian". And the Shia tribes suffered just as much as the Sunnis did in the war with Iran.

This is an attempt at a Tet, and it will end as Tet did, with the Tikrit thugs and Sadr's thugs wiped out. The Kurd and mainstream Sunni and Shia militias are sitting this one out, waiting for June 30. That's what Sadr should have done.0.

Posted by Chuck Simmins 2004-04-07 9:01:48 AM|| [http://blog.simmins.org] 2004-04-07 9:01:48 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 All reports Ive seen indicate that this is essentially an urban revolt, with the villages largely quiet. I presume this is largely driven by the interplay of class and religion among the Shiites, with the relatively conservative villagers largely loyal to Sistani, as are the urban middle classes. Sadr gets more support from the more radicalized urban working classes. Nothing clear on the Shiite tribal leaders. It DOES seem that in Iraq (as elsewhere in the region) tribal loyalty typically extends into at least the smaller cities, not just the rural areas. Ive seen nothing to indicate significant tribal loyalty in a large city like Baghdad.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-04-07 10:53:46 AM|| 2004-04-07 10:53:46 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 I know I'm a little late for this discussion, but Murat, you may want to double-check how much in both material and manpower the Viet Cong got from the North way-back-when; in particular, after Tet depleted their manpower, they relied heavily on NVA regulars to fill out their ranks. Most of their arms/ammunition/etc. came from the North, via the Ho Chi Minh trail (plus some coming in over the water, both in the early days, and via Cambodia in the later days); and finally, the NVA itself attacked during the Tet offensive and other offensives. For the N. Vietnamese, the guerilla war wasn't an isolated strategy, but part of an overall strategy that involved lots of more conventional military action, including attacks by mechanized units. I just thought I'd be a little pedantic, what with all the Tet Analogies going around...

Posted by Phil Fraering 2004-04-07 11:50:51 PM|| [http://newsfromthefridge.typepad.com] 2004-04-07 11:50:51 PM|| Front Page Top

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