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Head of New Leadership, Jalil, Arrives Tripoli to Great Welcome
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Page 6: Politix
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17 00:00 Barbara [3] 
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Page 1: WoT Operations
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Page 2: WoT Background
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13 00:00 Thing From Snowy Mountain [5]
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Page 4: Opinion
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Economy
Liberal Economists: Obama's Jobs Plan Will Work! Actual Employers: No, It Won't.
President Obama's latest re-election gambit, cloaked in the language of serious policy, has been met with predictable hurrahs from certain economic experts. These are many of the same experts who thought the 2009 stimulus would be -- and has been! -- a great triumph, and who are regularly caught off guard by "unexpected" economic news. Never mind all that, this is gonna be awesome:


A tentative thumbs-up. That's the assessment from economists, who have offered mainly positive reviews of President Barack Obama's $447 billion plan to stimulate job creation. Some predict it would put hundreds of thousands of people back to work next year, mainly because a Social Security tax cut for workers would be deepened and extended to small businesses.

"Payroll tax cuts are very powerful," says Allen Sinai, chief economist of Decision Economics. "They provide a boost to direct income and, in turn, spending, which is important to growth." Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, estimates that the president's plan would boost economic growth by 2 percentage points, add 2 million jobs and reduce unemployment by a full percentage point next year compared with existing law.

Other economists dissent from these sunny assessments. More importantly, the people who actually create wealth -- employers and investors -- aren't sold on the plan's theoretical benefits:

The dismal state of the economy is the main reason many companies are reluctant to hire workers, and few executives are saying that President Obama's jobs plan -- while welcomed -- will change their minds any time soon. That sentiment was echoed across numerous industries by executives in companies big and small on Friday, underscoring the challenge for the Obama administration as it tries to encourage hiring and perk up the moribund economy.

The plan failed to generate any optimism on Wall Street as the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index and the Dow Jones industrial average each fell about 2.7 percent. As President Obama faced an uphill battle in Congress to win support even for portions of the plan, many employers dismissed the notion that any particular tax break or incentive would be persuasive. Instead, they said they tended to hire more workers or expand when the economy improved.

For more on this debate, I'd direct you to this thoughtful op-ed by Reihan Salam, who makes a compelling case that the president's plan is destined to fail. Another must-read is this eye-opening WSJ editorial, which examines a new study that sets aside the practice of using economic modeling and multipliers to measure the effects of the 2009 Recovery Act, in favor of a methodology that audits the actual hiring and business practicies of companies that received stimulus dollars. (Spoiler: the stimulus failed).
Posted by: DarthVader || 09/12/2011 14:55 || Comments || Link || [2 views] Top|| File under:

#1  ..has been met with predictable hurrahs from certain economic experts.. who've never operated a small business.

You know the field slaves won't work any harder for the Plantation owner if they perceive all they'll get for harder work is nothing as any fruit of their labor is simply taken away by the owner. Do just enough to avoid punishment and get by on the basics.
Posted by: Procopius2k || 09/12/2011 15:32 Comments || Top||

#2  Liberal economists are dangerous.
Posted by: JohnQC || 09/12/2011 20:59 Comments || Top||

#3  Moody Analytics: We may suck at micro (predicting mortgage defaults for the MBSs we graded at triple A) but trust us, we're great at macro (like the effects of the first stimulus package)!
Posted by: Perfesser || 09/12/2011 22:39 Comments || Top||


Home Front: Politix
Dems starting to think Obama could lose
Three weeks ago, I posed the question of what would happen if Democrats became so convinced that Barack Obama could not win a second term that they asked him to step aside. Yesterday, the New York Times reports that leaders in the party are starting to come to the conclusion that Obama may not be able to succeed -- and that has alarm bells going off:

Democrats are expressing growing alarm about President Obama's re-election prospects and, in interviews, are openly acknowledging anxiety about the White House's ability to strengthen the president's standing over the next 14 months.

Elected officials and party leaders at all levels said their worries have intensified as the economy has displayed new signs of weakness. They said the likelihood of a highly competitive 2012 race is increasing as the Republican field, once dismissed by many Democrats as too inexperienced and conservative to pose a serious threat, has started narrowing to two leading candidates, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who have executive experience and messages built around job creation.

And in a campaign cycle in which Democrats had entertained hopes of reversing losses from last year's midterm elections, some in the party fear that Mr. Obama's troubles could reverberate down the ballot into Congressional, state and local races. ...

But a survey of two dozen Democratic officials found a palpable sense of concern that transcended a single week of ups and downs. The conversations signaled a change in mood from only a few months ago, when Democrats widely believed that Mr. Obama's path to re-election, while challenging, was secure.

They've started to recognize the problem, but they're having trouble diagnosing its causes. According to the NYT, some in the party think that Obama has to get out of Washington more often -- after just spending most of August either on vacation or taking a bus tour of the Midwest. When exactly has this President stuck around Washington DC?

Others in the Democratic Party have fallen victim to the Big Speech Syndrome that has afflicted this presidency. They want Obama to be angrier, pound the pulpit, and make a lot more speeches. That, however, won't impress anyone after three years of supposedly soaring rhetoric and little in results. This week, Obama put the Big Speech on his jobs plan ahead of actually producing the jobs plan. Americans have been waiting for this big "pivot" to jobs since it became obvious in 2010 that the 2009 stimulus plan had failed, and certainly after the embarrassing "Recovery Summer" flop. All Obama did between then and now was talk.

If Obama has a shot at re-election, the economy has to start showing signs of real growth and large-scale job creation. He won't get that from the rehashed ambiguities he offered in his speech Thursday. Washington has to roll back the blizzard of federal regulation either already imposed or proposed in order to get investors interested in pricing risk again in the US. In his speech, Obama explicitly refused to do that, standing by Dodd-Frank and ObamaCare. He also refuses to end the regulatory attacks on domestic energy exploration, extraction, and refining, a move that would almost instantly create hundreds of thousands of jobs and signal plentiful and cheaper energy costs for businesses looking to expand.

Since it's clear Obama won't act responsibly for economic growth, Democrats had better plan on the post-Obama era arriving four years earlier than expected. The only question remaining will be whether they will watch as Obama drags down Democrats into massive losses in November 2012, or whether they can convince him to step aside so that they can salvage what they can with a different Democratic nominee at the top of the ticket.
I can only hope the dems stay stupid and do angry speech after angry speech. It might be a 50 state sweep for the Republicans.
Posted by: DarthVader || 09/12/2011 11:10 || Comments || Link || [3 views] Top|| File under:

#1  How bout a nice "malaise" speech?
Posted by: Cincinnatus Chili || 09/12/2011 11:26 Comments || Top||

#2  I can only hope the dems stay stupid and do angry speech after angry speech. It might be a 50 state sweep for the Republicans.
Posted by DarthVader


Wall Street has become quite predictable. The day BEFORE the Obama speech is the day to SELL. Buyers, wait must least a day or two AFTER the Obama speech. Please keep bloviating Barry, we've found the investment formula.
Posted by: Besoeker || 09/12/2011 11:30 Comments || Top||

#3  When does Hillary's primary campaign start?
Posted by: AlanC || 09/12/2011 12:36 Comments || Top||

#4  I think Cheney's endorsement of Hillary was battlespace preparation.
Posted by: Spot || 09/12/2011 13:05 Comments || Top||

#5  I'm with DV. Stay dumb, my little progressive friends. Demand that Obama move to the Left. Shake your tiny fists. Call your countrymen 'teabaggers'. Hold rallies with lots of large, paper-mache puppets. Curse frequently. Demand more stimulus spending. Demand more taxes. Put Medea Benjamin in charge of something at the White House.

Oh yes, my little progressive friends, everyone you know is on your side.
Posted by: Steve White || 09/12/2011 14:04 Comments || Top||

#6  "Stay dumb, my little progressive friends."

They will. The crony capitalists will keep the proles wipped up. What choice do they really have? They'll go down flying the flag.

This may get ugly.
Posted by: my two cents || 09/12/2011 14:58 Comments || Top||

#7  There is a line of reasoning that the Dems will have to ride this ship all the way to the bottom. They can't win national elections without the black vote, blacks still support Bammo and so no Dem will put the black vote into jeopardy by running a primary challenge.

The good news is that after this administration crashes and burns there won't be another "progressive" president for a generation. The bad news is there probably won't be another black president for a generation either.
Posted by: Iblis || 09/12/2011 15:23 Comments || Top||

#8  Word. I would really have enjoyed having a cool black president like Allen West or Herman Cain. That's totally screwed now, at least for a while. Hell, if Obama had stuck to doing things like killing Bin Laden, going after Qaddafi, playing golf, and giving speeches about nutrition... and nothing else, we wouldn't be having this conversation right now.
Posted by: Secret Master || 09/12/2011 15:30 Comments || Top||

#9  Iblis, I disagree. A good black conservative candidate could win within a generation.
Posted by: Glenmore || 09/12/2011 15:30 Comments || Top||

#10  The bad news is there probably won't be another black president for a generation either.

*cough* Allen West *cough*
Posted by: Frank G || 09/12/2011 16:03 Comments || Top||

#11  Dems starting to think Obama could lose

Think some of them are smart enough to worry that he might not?
Posted by: g(r)omgoru || 09/12/2011 16:05 Comments || Top||

#12  Glenmore:

Hope you are right, but not convinced of it.

Any such hypothetical candidate would need the support of Independents to win. This lot is almost be definition motivated by emotion more than anything else. They swept Bammo into office, and next year will sweep him out again. What emotion will they be feeling next time a black candidate runs for the presidency? I'm not talking about reasons; I'm talking about emotions.
Posted by: Iblis || 09/12/2011 16:18 Comments || Top||

#13  We have yet to have: a female president, an asian president, a hispanic president, a native american president, a skandihoovian president....
Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain || 09/12/2011 16:19 Comments || Top||

#14  I'm waiting for the first Klingon president myself.... Then we will have... interesting... debates.
Posted by: CrazyFool || 09/12/2011 16:25 Comments || Top||

#15  If they run a piece of plywood against him, I'm voting for it. Almost as effective, not nearly as dangerous...
Posted by: tu3031 || 09/12/2011 16:28 Comments || Top||

#16  The bad news is there probably won't be another black president for a generation either

Well, some of us racist, terrorist, SOB, hobbits support Herman Cain.
Posted by: Cincinnatus Chili || 09/12/2011 17:55 Comments || Top||

#17  "If they run a piece of plywood against him, I'm voting for it. Almost as more effective, not nearly as dangerous..."

FTFY, tu.
Posted by: Barbara || 09/12/2011 18:57 Comments || Top||


Obama dragging down Dem candidates in House special elections
Dissatisfaction with President Obama is hurting Democrats' chances in two House special elections that will take place on Tuesday.

In a Democratic-leaning New York City seat previously held by Democratic Rep. Anthony Weiner, some prominent local Democrats have endorsed Republican Bob Turner because of Obama's handling of Israel, while Democrat David Weprin has sought distance from the president.

In a GOP-leaning Nevada district left vacant when Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate, Republicans are using Obama as a cudgel against Democratic candidate Kate Marshall, featuring him in all of their ads while mostly ignoring her.

Many Democratic strategists are privately blaming Obama for their party's difficulties in both districts and worry that if his numbers don't improve he could hurt their chances at retaking the House in 2012.

"The whole national debate has moved away from what the Republicans have done with Medicare to the national dialogue that the president hasn't been able to talk about the economy effectively and that hurts congressional Democrats," said one top Democratic strategist who asked not to be named so he could speak candidly.

"It certainly hurts both of them and took Nevada out of contention."

The Democratic candidates in both special elections have tried to distance themselves from Obama.

In New York, Weprin said that he would "probably" support Obama's reelection but "absolutely" disagrees with the president's policy towards Israel. Former New York City Mayor Ed Koch, a Democrat who has endorsed candidates of both parties in the past, is backing Turner because he believes Obama needs to be sent a message on Israel.
How many more dems will jump off the Obama ship before 2012?
Posted by: DarthVader || 09/12/2011 00:00 || Comments || Link || [4 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Obama's poll numbers have gotten so low lately that the Kenyans are claiming that he was born in the United States.
Posted by: GK || 09/12/2011 3:35 Comments || Top||

#2  It's a feature, not a bug.
Posted by: Procopius2k || 09/12/2011 3:50 Comments || Top||

#3  If Turner wins, the Dems can kiss Florida goodbye. Obama's most loyal supporters will double down on failure and blame the you-know-whos. They just can't help themselves.
Posted by: my two cents || 09/12/2011 7:33 Comments || Top||

#4  Do not count out the Palo or Hizbo votes. They will most likely go for Obama and company. But probably not enough to turn the tide.

More importantly I would want to know what Union District Council of New York signed up to conut the votes on election day.
Posted by: airandee || 09/12/2011 8:32 Comments || Top||

#5  "Obama dragging down Dem candidates in House special elections"

GOOD!

I hope he drags them down in the regular election, too.
Posted by: Barbara || 09/12/2011 9:28 Comments || Top||

#6  Weprin doesn't even live in the District, and won't promise to move there if elected. Nice.
Posted by: Frank G || 09/12/2011 12:21 Comments || Top||

#7  The Emperor Light Bringer has no never had any clothes coat tails
Posted by: DepotGuy || 09/12/2011 16:16 Comments || Top||

#8  Ditto on "a feature not a bug." The GOP may take the Nevada race. Weiner's seat going to the GOP would be good. The liberal/Progressive media (MSM) was reporting voters in Weiner's district were saying they would vote for Weiner even after his undoing. That might be MSM spin but it also might be true. But voters might just be angry enough with BO and Weiner to vote for Turner.
Posted by: JohnQC || 09/12/2011 20:50 Comments || Top||



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Two weeks of WOT
Mon 2011-09-12
  Head of New Leadership, Jalil, Arrives Tripoli to Great Welcome
Sun 2011-09-11
  EU Command: French hostage rescued from pirates
Sat 2011-09-10
  Cairo mob ransacks, torches Israeli embassy, staff flown out
Fri 2011-09-09
  Turkistan Islamic Party claims western China attacks
Thu 2011-09-08
  'Gaddafi surrounded'
Wed 2011-09-07
  Bomb at Delhi High Court kills 11, 76 injured
Tue 2011-09-06
  'Qatari Emir survives assassination'
Mon 2011-09-05
  Pakistan detains top al-Qaida suspect
Sun 2011-09-04
  Sudan declares emergency in Blue Nile state
Sat 2011-09-03
  European Union Lifts Sanctions on Libya
Fri 2011-09-02
  Russia recognises Libya's rebel government
Thu 2011-09-01
  Al Qathafi Reject Rebels' Ultimatum to Surrender
Wed 2011-08-31
  Saleh Authorizes his party to Conduct Negotiations with Opposition
Tue 2011-08-30
  Qadaffy's wife, daughter, 2 sons flee to Algeria
Mon 2011-08-29
  29 dead in suicide bomb attack in Iraq mosque: Officials


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