h/t Instapundit
A spectre is haunting Europethe spectre of the disintegration of the eurozone. All the powers of old Europe have entered into a holy alliance to exorcize this spectre: German chancellor and French president, the Brussels eurocracy and the bonus-laden bankers. Let the ruling classes tremble. The debtors have nothing to lose but their burdens.
So Karl Marx might have written were he watching unfolding events in the eurozone. In a sense, it is like watching a slow-motion train wreck.
A quick review: Some 17 of the 27 nations that constitute the European Union have abandoned their own currencies in favor of the euro. This means they have given up control of their exchange rates and their interest rates, the latter set by the European Central Bank on a one-size-fits-all basis. In fact, it is the state of the German economy, the areas largest, that dictates interest rate policy for the entire 17-country group. When Germany was suffering under the weight of the costs of reunification, its sluggish economy needed, and got, a low-interest rate policy from the European Central Bank. That eventually proved too stimulative for, say, Ireland, which was in the midst of an inflating property bubble.
The creation of the eurozone also led lenders to assume that the credit of every member was just about as good as the credit of Germany and France. So Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy could sell sovereign debt at very low interest rates and use the borrowed money to finance an expansion of their welfare statesGreeks, for instance, could retire at 50 if they were in a hazardous occupation such as hairdressing (all those chemicals). More important, countries like Portugal, with a poorly educated workforce, and Spain, with politically run regional banks making imprudent loans to local property developers, became noncompetitive with their eurozone colleagues and international rivals. No problem: Fiscal policy was not controlled from the center, and investors hadnt yet realized that lending to the so-called PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) was a hazardous occupation. So the latter could tap the credit markets to fill the gap between tax receipts and spending, and benefit from German-level interest rates.
Then the rating agencies rose from their torpor and downgraded the sovereign debt of Greece, helping to drive interest rates on its government bonds to unsustainable levels. Enter Brussels with a bailout for Greece. And when Irelands deficit soared to 32 percent after the government decided to guarantee the debts of its insolvent banks, enter Brussels with a bailout for Ireland. Now Portugal, burdened with an economy that has not grown for a decade, also is rattling its begging bowl, and another bailout is being negotiated with a conclusion along the lines of earlier bailouts imminent, never mind that the previous two have done more harm than an honest confession of insolvency would. If at first you dont succeed, repeat the mistake.
...To the intrinsic flaws in the euro systema one-size-fits-all interest rate and the inability of the eurozone bureaucracy to control the fiscal policies of membersadd the news from tiny, previously europhile Finland. In last months election, the anti-euro, anti-bailout True Finn partys share of votes jumped from 4 percent to 19 percent, and its parliamentary seats from 5 to 39 in a 200-seat parliament, enough to insist on inclusion in a coalition government. Just as the Tea Party sent a message politicians cant ignore, so the True Finns sent a message to the incoming government that it should think hard before casting a voteunanimity is requiredfor the impending Portuguese bailout. As Tony Barber put it in the Financial Times, Finns are angry because, like the Austrians, Dutch, and Germans, they dislike rushing to the aid of countries that in their eyes have cheated, idled, lied, lived beyond their means, and let reckless bankers run amok. Finlands no vote is all that is needed to leave Portugal drowning in debt.
...TheEuropean project wont go quietly into the night. But it just might go noisily into the ashcan of history...
#2
ahh LOL noisily into the rubbish bin of history. Very amusing.
But sad. This was a grand experiment, would be terrific if they could keep the Eurozone together.
Once that disintegrates there's not much reason to keep the rest of it together.
It's been grand having no different currencies, open zone for travel, working, living etc.
what a shame i hope they can work it out. Riots in Greece say they won't. Retiring at 50 just imagine. In australia it's 67.
#3
Tipper your "Portugalnomics:Ep. 1 " was very good. They seem to be a big part of this world. Norway retires their people at fifty also. Norway is in the black also. The cruse lines are seeing a banner year. Exports of fish at record level. Best longevity. Needs to hire more foreign workers . They have over 350,000 now. Major deals in gas and oil with several countries. They have five oil drilling platforms on order. Socialist to the core and teetotalers! mostly. Well you can't have everything.
Norway has heavy taxes and strict control on alcohol in order to control Norwegan predeliction for heavy drinking.
There was a group of Norwegan dentistry students at my Irish University (apparently no dentistry school in Norway) who were famed for going on wild drinking benders lasting for days.
#6
Hmm. If this keeps up, there will be too many actors to establish a New World Order.
Also, if a country is too prosperous and all its workers retire early, it will force immigration from less successful systems, and import less successful attitudes. Which makes that more successful system ... less successful. Perhaps this would be a good reason to keep a country from being too successful.
#7
That was good to hear. I had always been told they abstain the alcohol. We have several come over for reunions and one smokes. He is a teacher and pays dearly for his smokes. Very competitive people. Senior Olympics and such. Had an Uncle who challenged me to sit ups on an inclined board. He did two hundred sit ups every morning into his eighties. I declined his challenge and I think I made the right decision.
#8
Gorb yes and no. They claim their crime is at the lowest level in twenty years. The crime they do have is rape which never had been a problem in the past. Women don't go out at night alone now I'm told.
#9
Just a current update from The Norway Post "Statoil has reported net income in the first quarter of 2011 of NOK 16.1 billion compared to NOK 11.1 billion in the same period last year".
#11
The EMU (European Monetary Union) is only one of the seven heads of the EU hydra, so a downsizing of the eurozone or a collapse of the euro would by no means be the end of the European Project.
But, considering that European unification has already been attempted three times -- by Charlemagne, Napoleon, and Hitler -- I don't see why this time would work out any better.
#16
As with its predecessor, the Holy Roman Empire, the EU, almost from its second generation, is starting once again on the slow decay to irrelevance. So here is the EU flag, featuring the "roadkill crow" of the HRE overlaid.
The more consternation you see between the U.S. and Pakistan in the news, the greater the likelihood that at least some portion of the Pakistani government participated in the tip off that killed bin Laden.
The row thats going on publicly in the media between the U.S. and Pakistan is being staged by the Pakistanis largely to cover up the fact that the Pakistani government turned on bin Laden. The fight is being staged by us to help cover up the fact that they knew that we knew that they knew bin Laden was there for some time.
The average Pakistani revered bin Laden as a hero. So you can understand why the Pakistani government wouldnt want to own up to participating in the operation that took him out.
The Obama administration has been happy to help advance the cover. The thought has hardly crossed their mind that maybe its time to stop supporting a country that supported Americas public enemy number one for so long.
Now comes word that a small insertion in the budget passed just a few weeks ago, bans scientific co-operation between the U.S and our largest creditor, the Peoples Republic of China, according to Congressman Frank Wolf.
China, Wolf charges, has also been involved in anti-American activities that have harmed national interests.
Harming our interests is getting to be a habit amongst pals of ours across the world.
Representative Frank Wolf (R-VA), a long-time critic of the Chinese government who chairs a House spending committee that oversees several science agencies, says Forbes inserted the language into the spending legislation to prevent NASA or OSTP from using federal funds to collaborate, or coordinate bilaterally in any way with China or any Chinese-owned company.
Its been an open secret that the Chinese have sponsored a series of cyber attacks on U.S. interests for the last five years, including DoD facilities, intelligence centers and even the White House.
Wolfs own office computers, which contain information about dissident Chinese, have also been hacked from inside China.
Some intelligence types think that in addition to targeting military secrets, Chinas trying dry runs aimed at taking out our command and control.
But like the Pakistani drama, the Obama administrations words of condemnation regarding Chinese spying are mostly meant to keep us citizens happy.
The Obama administration would never cut off their supply of money by quibbling with China about espionage and national security.
Why would they? They cant even stand up to Pakistan.
Or Libya.
There is a growing unease amongst national security types that foreign policy and national security decisions are being made by the administration with an eye towards re-election rather than with the best interest of the United States in mind. It's eroding the confidence our war fighters have in the chain of command.
While the same charge of "politics" can be leveled at any administration, Obamas team, notably less than subtle in matters requiring executive ability, tend to fall back on campaign mode when faced with hard choices.
They pick whats politically expedient rather than whats smart, presidential or right.
That could hurt the administration's ability to rally the troops in the future.
Robert Gates decision to exit stage right this year at the Department of Defense and Hillary Clintons decision to exit stage left at the State Department after the end of the term haven't helped.
And dont think that the recent operation that got bin Laden is helping the administration bolster confidence from the national security community.
Far from it.
Many in the community resent the emphatic I used by Obama when announcing the operation.
But thats not the worst of it.
By changing the story 26 times in a quest for personal glory, devoid of any personal responsibility, Obama has left the impression that Navy SEALs killed unarmed women and an unarmed, old man.
No amount of face time with the commander-in-chief can repair that rift. The chain of command is supposed to support the troops who have followed their orders.
One can argue the merits of continuing the friendship with Pakistan and China, while ignoring their anti-American activities.
But leaving members of the military out to dry, well, thats just un-American.
Americans soldiers are being asked to fight wars against undefined enemies. The ambiguity eventually will hurt morale and our ability to fight.
It's time we told our so-called allies that they are either for us or against us.
It's time we threw a lifeline to troops and civilians engaged in the War on Terror by telling them who our enemies really are.
#1
Remember also that this all happened a month after the President threatened to stop Soldiers pay if the government shut down, and his POS Attorney General still has some CIA men under criminal investigation. Unbelievable.
#2
As per FOX NEWS AM > AL QAEDA IN YEMEN [AQIY], aka AL-QAEDA ON THE ARABIAN PENINSULA [AQAP], is throwing its support behind AYMAN ZAWAHIRI to succeed Osama, wid FOX NEWS describing Ayman as a "CONTROL FREAK" + "MICRO-MANAGER"???
I broadly believe that, wid Osama's formal passing, that his "Core Al-Qaeda" + Affilates + other major MilTerr groups will decentralize further for a time while still prioritizing the conduct of Jihad = Insurgent campaigns agz already Nuke-armed Russia, China, India, + also now Africa = any Third World nations capable of dev or procuring reliable NucWeaps Arsenals, AS IMO ANY NEW 9-11 EVENT(S) OR WORSE [Nuclear?]AGZ CONUS WILL PROB NOT OCCUR UNTIL RADICAL ISLAM FIRST DEVS ACCESS TO MULTIPLE READY SOURCES, GOVTS-STATES OR OTHER, OF ADVANCED NUCTECHS FOR WAR.
TERRSTRIKES AGZ THE US-WEST WILL OCCUR, BUT THE LATTER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A "SECOND/
SUPPORT/TERTIARY" FRONT UNTIL RELIABLE ISLAMIST = MILTERR NUCLEARIZATION IS ACHIEVED.
* PAKISTANI PM GILANI = warns that PAK SOVEREIGNTY M-U-S-T be respected lest PAK RESPONDS WID "FULL FORCE" [Full Mil Power/Response = War] AGZ ANY REPEAT OF ABBOTTABAD-STYLE COVERT RAIDS BY THE US OR ANYONE.
Gilani's rant = induce Pakistan to expedite dev + improvements to its strategic nuclear arsenal as per PAK NATIONAL SECURITY, WHICH SUITS RADICAL ISLAM JUST FINE.
"2012".
* ARAB-ISLAMIC MILITARY HISTORY = the Islamist Regional, Global Jihad is unlikely to end even after the death or capture of OSAMA, AYMAN, OR OTHER.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
