[NYP] Renowned election guru Nate Silver called the race for the White House a "pure toss-up" Sunday as he gave ex-President Donald Trump a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in his latest forecast.
Silver’s model shows Trump has a 51.5% chance of clinching the Electoral College while Harris has a 48.1% chance, according to a Substack post on Sunday morning, Mediate reported.
"[New York Times] swing state polls good for Harris but not great. Morning Consult swing state polls good for Trump but not great," Silver tweeted Sunday.
[ZERO] Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,
"Imagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels is like trying to predict the exact fault line of an earthquake. All you know in advance is something about the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:
Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)
Social distress, with violence fueled by class, race, nativism, or religion and abetted by armed gangs, underground militias, and mercenaries hired by walled communities
Political distress, with institutional collapse, open tax revolts, one-party hegemony, major constitutional change, secessionism, authoritarianism, and altered national borders
Military distress, with war against terrorists or foreign regimes equipped with weapons of mass destruction"
Here’s hoping their fears are fully realized, and then some.
[IsraelTimes] Tehran said to believe that if reelected, the former US president would exert the utmost pressure on Khamenei to cave to nuclear containment deal on Washington and Israel’s terms
On the other hand, possibly whatever is sickening the Ayatollah Khamenei will become sepsis, and he’ll end up missing all the fun.
Iran’s leadership and allies are bracing for what they would regard as a dreadful outcome of the imminent US presidential election: a return to power of Donald Trump ...The tack in the backside of the Democratic Party... Opinion polls suggest that Republican Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris once a marijuana-busting Caliphornia DA remain locked in a close contest. But Iranian leaders and their regional allies in Leb ...an Iranian satrapy until recently ruled by Hassan Nasrallah situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel. Formerly inhabited by hardy Phoenecian traders, its official language is now Arabic, with the usual unpleasant side effects. The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else? It is the home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade. The Lebs have the curious habit of periodically murdering their heads of state or prime ministers... , Iraq, and Yemen ...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of... are concerned that Trump could well triumph on November 5 and this could spell more trouble for them.
Iran’s main concern is the potential for Trump to empower Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, conduct targeted liquidations, and reimpose his "maximum pressure policy" through heightened sanctions on its oil industry, according to Iranian, Arab and Western officials.
They anticipate that Trump, who was president in 2017-21, will exert the utmost pressure on Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ...the very aged actual dictator of Iran, successor to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini...> to cave in by accepting a nuclear containment deal on terms set by himself and Israel.
This potential change in US leadership could have far-reaching implications for the Middle East balance of power and might reshape Iran’s foreign policy and economic prospects.
Iran ...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate JewsZionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol... and its proxies have long threatened Israel with destruction and called to wipe out the Jewish state.
Analysts argue that whether Harris or Trump leads the next US administration, Iran will lack the leverage it once held — largely due to Israel’s year-old military campaign aimed at degrading the Islamic Theocratic Republic’s armed proxies, including the terror groups Hamas ..always the voice of sweet reason... in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response... and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
However,
by candlelight every wench is handsome... Trump’s stance is perceived as more detrimental to Iran due to his more automatic support for Israel, they added.
"Trump will either put very tough conditions on Iran or let Israel carry out targeted strikes on its nuclear facilities. He is fully endorsing a military action against Iran," Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Center think tank, said.
"It’s Netanyahu’s dream day to have Trump back in the White House," he told Rooters.
POISON CHALICE?
A senior Iranian official who declined to be named told Rooters Tehran was "prepared for all scenarios. We have [for decades] consistently found ways to export oil, bypassing harsh US sanctions... and have strengthened our ties with the rest of the world no matter who was in the White House."
But another Iranian official said a Trump victory would be "a nightmare. He will raise pressure on Iran to please Israel... [and] make sure oil sanctions are fully enforced. If so, [our] establishment will be economically paralyzed."
In an election speech in October, Trump stated his unwillingness to go to war with Iran but said Israel should "hit the Iranian nuclear first and worry about the rest later," in response to Iran’s massive ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1. Iran launched some 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, sending most of the population rushing to bomb shelters and safe rooms. The attack caused relatively minor damage to military bases and some residential areas, and killed a Paleostinian man in the West Bank.
Israel retaliated with Arclight airstrike ...KABOOM!... s on Iranian military targets, especially missile production sites and long-range air defense systems, on October 26.
Khamenei on Saturday threatened Israel and the US with "a crushing response" to attacks on Iran and its allies. "The enemies, whether the Zionist regime or the United States of America, will definitely receive a crushing response to what they are doing to Iran and the land of the Medes and the Persians and to the resistance front," Khamenei said in video released by Iranian state media.
Iran’s choices are limited going forward, analysts say.
"The reality is: Trump is going to support Netanyahu and give him the green light to do whatever he wants," said Hassan Hassan, an author and researcher on Islamic groups. "Trump is much worse [than Harris] for Iran."
Hassan noted that Washington has delegated a substantial share of responsibility to Israel in the conflict with Iran and its proxies, with Israel leading the way. "The US is involved enough in that it’s backing Israel, maybe more so than before.
"This time it’s just things are really bad for Iran. Iran is seen as a problem by both Republicans and Democrats ...every time you hear the phrase white people, white supremacy,white anything but paint, you're listening to a Democrat. Ask him/her/it to reimagine something for you; they do that a lot, though not well. They can hear a dog whistle a mile or two away. They invented the spoils system and Tammany Hall, and inspired the addition of the word (Thomas) Nasty to the English language. They want to stop continental drift and repeal the law of unintended side effects... During her campaign, Harris called Iran a "dangerous" and "destabilizing" force in the Middle East and said the US was committed to Israel’s security. She said the US would work with allies to disrupt Iran’s "aggressive behavior."
But Trump’s reelection would be a "poisoned chalice" for Khamenei, according to two regional officials.
If he were to reinstate stringent sanctions, Khamenei may be forced to negotiate and accept a nuclear pact more favorable to US and Israeli terms to preserve theocratic rule in Iran, which is facing growing foreign pressure and has been buffeted by bouts of mass protest at home in recent years.
A US-Saudi defense pact tied to Riyadh’s establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, now in its final negotiating stages, poses a significant challenge to Khamenei too.
This alliance threatens to shift the regional balance of power by creating a more unified front against Iran, impacting its geopolitical standing and strategy in the Middle East.
NEW ARCHITECTURE
Hassan said Israel’s recent retaliatory attacks on Iran and strikes on the leadership of terror proxies Hamas and Hezbollah allies have been widely perceived as a significant success. They offered insights into what a limited strike on Iran might look like, setting a precedent and altering assumptions that military action on Iran would inevitably spark a wider Middle East war.
A senior Arab security official said that Tehran could "no longer brandish its influence through its armed proxies" in the wake of Israel’s deadly strikes on Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.
For its own part, Iran has every reason to fear another Trump term.
It was Trump who in 2018 unilaterally pulled the US out of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani , Khamenei’s right-hand man and criminal mastermind of overseas attacks on US and allied interests.
Trump also imposed punitive sanctions targeting Iran’s oil export revenues and international banking transactions, which led to extreme economic hardship and exacerbated public discontent in the Islamic Theocratic Republic.
He frequently said during his presidential campaign that US President Joe The Big Guy Biden ...46th president of the U.S. The man who made Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter look competent, if only by comparison.... ’s policy of not rigorously enforcing oil export sanctions has weakened Washington and emboldened Tehran, allowing it to sell oil, accumulate cash, and expand its nuclear pursuits and influence through armed militias.
In March, Trump told the Israel Hayom newspaper in an interview that Iran could have a nuclear weapon in 35 days and that Israel — which deems Iran’s nuclear activity an existential threat — was in a "very treacherous and dangerous neighborhood."
An Arab government adviser noted that Tehran recognizes there is a "new architecture in the making," but also that Trump, despite his tough rhetoric, realizes there is no alternative to a deal with Iran given its accelerated uranium enrichment program.
"Trump might aim for a new nuclear agreement, he could say I tore up the 2015 agreement because it was incomplete and replace it with a long-lasting agreement, touting it to ’make America great again’ and preserve US interests," the adviser said.
As the 2015 deal has eroded over the years, Iran has escalated the level of fissile purity in enriched uranium, cutting the time it would need to build an atom bomb if it chose to, though it denies wanting to.
Iran Online, a state-run news website, stated that when Trump left office, Iran was capping enrichment at 3.67 percent under the deal, far below the 90% of weapons-grade uranium.
Now, Iran has "enriched uranium to 60% with IR-6 advanced centrifuges" and could achieve nuclear weapons capability "within a few weeks... Completing the nuclear deterrence cycle is Iran’s greatest trump card against Trump," it said.
Arab and Western officials warn that the more Iran hints it is nearing the development of an atomic bomb, the more it incites the need for Israel to strike.
"If Trump reassumes power, he will support Israeli plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities," a Western official said.
Posted by: trailing wife ||
11/04/2024 00:00 ||
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#1
"Khamenei on Saturday threatened Israel and the US with "a crushing response" "
That sounds like a war or terrorism threat...
The nicest response could be Rods From God all over Iran some Friday service time... it would make the sermons so much more impressive...
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Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
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..always the voice of sweet reason...
