These were my predictions from the fall of 2014 on the possibility of Russian military operations, back in 2014.
I got a lot wrong, but also I got some things right.
I think the war (2022) will end when Putin makes the Dnepr River and seizes the area south of the line running to the west from Kharkov to the Dnepr River.
[Facebook] If Putin makes his move to "annex" Ukraine, he will probably do it in December.
I think it will be a multi axis operation beginning with light infantry company heliborne or paraborne air assaults in several crossings of the Dnepr starting with the Dnepr estuary going north to and ending at Zaparozhe. Crossings at Kherson, Nova Kakhovka and Zaparozhe. Immediately coming up from the Crimea will be at least two airborne divisions, possibly on a straight up road march from Sevastopol.
Then from the east, Putin will "cancel" the Novorossiya drive for independence, "convincing" them that Russian federation is better for them than that nasty, messy independence thing, then move his maneuver divisions west. He doesn't need a contiguous line running across the north, because they are all Russian speaking and generally sympathetic, or maybe just quiet.
I say December because by then the humanitarian crisis in Novorossiya will begin to hit hard, and Putin's "concern" for his Russian speaking tovarishchi will take over his better judgement.
Plus the ground will be hard enough to support his tanks. And he'll still send in his second string. We won't see his front line troops, similar to what he did in South Ossetia.
By then, also most of Ukraine's second and third echelon forces will be immolated by the militias, and all that will be left will be the regular Ukrainian Army, in fortifications behind the Dnepr, being built as we speak. IOW, Ukrainians expect Putin to do this thing.
Despite all his bluster, it will still take the Russian Army two months to move up to the Dnepr River line, even unopposed. By then they will have outrun their supply and will be forced to stop. But they will make the river line.
A foraging army could be an unpopular army.
What happens in the spring: plebiscites and appeals to Russkie Bratya, and the final tally. Putin wins.
This all assumes that oil prices do not collapse, which appears they already have and the collapse will temper for a few months, and then continue. Putin has this one window after the fall rains and before the spring rains.
On a separate note: Did you read how the governor appointed by Piotr Porosheko (the governor's name escapes me at the moment) stating emphatically that the Russian Army doesn't fight in the winter?
Must be Harvard edumacated, I s'pect.
#1
Good analytical rigor and predictive analysis is seldom 100% accurate. Elements which surface however, should be discussed and planned for, to the extent possible. Tactical or strategic surprise is nearly always unpleasant.
Commentary by Russian military blogger Boris Rozhin
[ColonelCassad] 1. Severodonetsk.
Residential development is almost completely cleared. There is a cleanup of the industrial zone and fighting in the area of the Severodonetsk thermal power plant and the Azot plant.
In the coming days, the complete liberation of Severodonetsk and the beginning of the fighting for Lisichansk will be announced.
2. Avdievka.
Fighting north of the village. Troops from the Novoselki-2 area are pressing in a westerly direction. There are fights in the direction of Krasnogorovka. Of course, there are no boilers there - the Avdievka-Orlovka highway allows you to continue supplying the enemy grouping.
Fighting on the southern outskirts of New York.
3. Svetlodarsk.
Fighting in the Novolugansk, Uglegorsk TPP and in the Vozdvizhenka area.
4. Artemovsk.
Battles at Pilipchatino. The enemy is fortifying in Pokrovsky. Reserves are transferred through the city, which rush into battle for the Artyomovsk-Lysichansk highway. Accumulations of APU equipment are being hit.
5. Soledar.
Battles near Novaya Kamenka and Stryapovka. The opponents, by bringing forces of up to two BTGs into battle, continue to try to push our troops back from the Artemovsk-Lysichansk highway in the Belogorovka-Berestovoe area, but, according to him, the route is still under close fire control of our troops and it is impossible to fully use it.
6. Golden.
Fighting on the southern outskirts of Zolote.
Cleaned up to 80% of Kamyshevakhi.
Fighting in the Installation area and west of Toshkovka. The enemy is trying to keep the Lisichansk-Gorskoye road, as well as Vrubovka, under his control in order to be able to defend Gorskoye and Zolote.
7. Krasny Liman.
The forests south of the Krasny Liman were almost completely cleared and the villages near the river were taken. Today we cleared the village. Yarovaya in the direction of Svyatogorsk. The positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Raygorodok are subjected to heavy blows.
8. Izyum.
No major changes. Positional battles at Bolshaya Kamyshevakha, Kurulka and Dolgenyoky.
9. Kharkov.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine were forced to leave a number of positions near Tsupovka and retreat to Kharkov after a series of unsuccessful attacks and a long-term fire defeat of the RF Armed Forces, which confidently hold the Cossack Lopan-Liptsy-Ternovoye-Rubezhnoye line.
In general, the “counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” in the Kharkov direction did not bring great success, at the cost of heavy losses, only a number of villages directly on the outskirts of Kharkov were captured, but attempts to build on success and reach the border failed. Similarly, attempts to create a serious foothold on the other side of the Seversky Donets river and to strain the flank of the Izyum grouping failed.
10. Kherson.
Attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to advance in the area of Snegirevka and Davydov Brod ended for the Armed Forces of Ukraine with heavy losses in the absence of significant results. Nevertheless, we can expect the resumption of enemy activity in the Nikopol and Krivoy Rog directions.
Odessa, Nikolaev, Marinka, Zaporizhia, Ugledar - without significant changes.
Photos can be seen at the link
[REGNUM] The wolf and wolfhound are fairly close relatives. In puppyhood, it is even difficult to distinguish them from each other and it is easy to mistake one for the other. Over time, their paths diverge, and the wolf in the pack is looking for the least risky prey, and the wolfhound is constantly striving to fight a strong and deadly enemy.
People who have chosen the "path of arms" are very similar to them.
In their youth, they can train in the same gym and compete in the same competitions. But later, someone chooses a pack that lives by robbing the weak and unprotected, and someone goes the other way, which has no easy prey. Because the "wolfhound" is not interested in easy prey. He needs a fight that he can be proud of later. He needs a service that gives him the right to respect himself.
Humans are much more complex than wolves and dogs. There are plenty of weak sheep and cowardly jackals among people. These jackals really do not want to be sheep, but it is very scary to follow the path of the wolves, and even more so the path of the wolfhound.
It happens that fate gives them the opportunity to "enroll" in a pack that is reputed to be terrible and ferocious, and due to this, go through life in a wolf's clothing, enjoying power and impunity. But the jackal nature does not go anywhere, and under the skin of a terrible wolf, the cowardly jackal soul still flutters.
The terrible and ferocious Nazi regiment "Azov" did its best to portray a pack of wolves. He even chose "Wolfsangel" - a wolf's hook - as his symbol. Taking advantage of impunity, the members of this gang, which received the consonant nickname "Dung" among the people, showed off a lot over the weak and defenseless.
And then the wolfhounds came and pinned them to the wall.
Wolves driven into a trap make a desperate breakthrough and most often die. Jackals in wolf skins were incapable of this. Tail between their legs and constantly whining in the Internet space, they shat the hole in which they were hiding, and then dutifully trudged into the cages of the "zoo" ...
#1
The same propagandists who went on and on about how the west was provoking needless bloodshed are saying their captives are scum for not dying.
Stack that on top of "and we're killing so many Ukranian troops" and "We're destroying so many cities Ukraine into a dependency like Gaza!" and that's four different sides of their mouth they're speaking out of.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Oleg Airapetov
[REGNUM] In the early summer of 1919, decisive events took place on the Eastern Front. May 25 - June 19, the Red Army carried out the Ufa operation, the river was forced. Belaya, Ufa was taken on June 9. Kolchak was no longer on the defensive, his armies were retreating.
Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics
[ColonelCassad] Reportage of the French edition from the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Severodonetsk.
The city is already lost
Exclusive from the French edition:
THE UKRAINIAN ARMY IS IN DECLINE NEAR SEVERODONETSK
Soldiers of the 20th Infantry Battalion of the 3rd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stationed on the heights of Lysychansk, are resting after returning from the front. Below you can see the Seversky Donets River, a strategic watercourse that is difficult to cross and serves as a natural barrier. Further columns of smoke rise over Severodonetsk.
Ukrainian soldiers describe it as hell on earth: “The Russians are bombing and firing mortars 24 hours a day, without a break. When you engage your men, after two minutes of fighting you already have many wounded that you must evacuate. New ones arrive and in a few minutes they are no longer alive.
UNEQUAL FORCEs
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are fighting outside the city, which is under the control of the Russian army. Ukrainian military personnel are retreating due to the imbalance of power between the two sides. Sergeant Roman Ilchenko, 32, explains that “the Russians have artillery, armored vehicles, and their forces are five to six times larger.” Faced with this firepower, Ukrainians bitterly note the weakness of their forces.
Volodymyr Kharchuk, 33, a Ukrainian soldier of the 20th Battalion, talks about his last mission, in which he was responsible for covering the retreat of the Airborne Forces: “We only had AK-47 assault rifles, a 1986 RPG, a 1943 Degtyarev machine gun and a 1933 Maxim machine gun of the year. We also have a Swedish NLAW man-portable anti-tank missile, but the battery failed. That's all we had." He points out that none of his men received night vision goggles, or even binoculars. “We had to bring home models that are usually used for hunting,” Kharchuk points out.
The mission he describes ended badly. After the withdrawal of the paratroopers, the soldiers of the 3rd brigade moved to the bridge over the river, but it was destroyed. Therefore, the soldiers say that they had to cross on foot, struggling with a strong current. “Our equipment is heavy. So we used our ropes to be able to cross. All this under mortar fire. Our evacuation was successful. But knowing that we were on the other side of the river, the command accused us of being deserters. We were threatened with jail. But it was they who ordered us to leave the city,” V. Kharchuk explained, adding that his superiors then denied that they had ordered them to leave Severodonetsk.
ILLOGICAL ORDERS
Vushnik Roman Ilchenko clarifies that they have a new task. Protect the last bridge connecting Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. An order that has no logic for him.
“Officially, to prevent the Russians from getting through. Except that the bridge has already been destroyed. There is no point in protecting him. The Russians may try to cross the river elsewhere where it is shallow. My people are ready for battle, but we need equipment and artillery. Our soldiers are not demoralized, they want to fight. But we no longer believe in our superiors,” Ilchenko said bitterly.
THE RUSSIANS WILL CRUSH US
Faced with such means deployed by Russian troops, people are unanimous: Severodonetsk is already lost, and we must respond. Andriy Shevchenko, a 39-year-old Ukrainian soldier, believes that if the UAF does not strengthen its artillery, it will not be able to do anything: “You cannot fight only with AK-47s. The Russians will crush us. We are being fired upon from the air, from mortars, we cannot respond with simple Kalashnikov assault rifles or short-range grenade launchers.”
So will the Ukrainian army lose the battle of Severodonetsk? “The city is already lost,” Shevchenko replied grimly. According to him, if nothing changes, the entire Donbas will sooner or later become Russian.
https://t.me/china3army/11138 - zinc
According to Pasechnik, the LPR already controls a third of Severodonetsk.
Kadyrov announces the release of the entire residential area of Severodonetsk.
Gauleiter of Severodonetsk declares that the RF Armed Forces have already taken half of the city.
In general, the day of the re-liberation of Severodonetsk is near.
[REGNUM] The total cleansing of the city of Severodonetsk (LPR) was completed on May 31 by Russian units, the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov wrote in his telegram channel.
"Warriors from the Chechen Republic, together with the People's Militia of the LPR and other Russian power units, completed the total cleansing of Severodonetsk."
According to the head of Chechnya, the fighters have moved on to the next stage: they are now conducting a more thorough random check of individual city facilities.
He also noted that the building of the main department of the SBU, which in Severodonetsk was a stronghold of the Ukronazi troops, and the territory adjacent to it "were completely cleared . "
The Ukrainian militants "hurriedly abandoned their offices and fled, but left many 'surprises' in the form of improvised explosive devices." These mines are disposed of by sappers.
“The locals are relieved and happy to meet the Russian soldiers, joking about the fact that the Germans have already been expelled, which means that everything will work out now.”
As Censor.NET reports , this was announced by the head of Luhansk OVA Sergey Gaidai in Telegram .
People sit without light, water and gas.
"We are trying to restore everything we can. But every day there are fewer and fewer repair crews in the region. "The regime of silence is almost non-existent, and when there is, regular communal workers are going to the facilities," he said.
As of yesterday, 95,795 consumers were left without electricity in the region, and today - 146,490. 36 settlements were disconnected - 22 completely, 14 partially.
"As a result of hostilities, there are 38 settlements without gas supply - 31 in full and 7 in part. This is 130,183 (unlike 106,070 last day) subscribers. There is no water supply in Rubezhnoye, Popasnaya, Gorskoye, Severodonetsk, partly in Lysychansk," Gaidai added.
#1
No where else such news is presented. Thank you. The slow grind continues. Volodymyr (the name that cannot be named) will hold out as long as possible then as a gesture of world leadership and social justice Biden will invite him to USA to continue his political ambitions. He has a future with the Democrats. Trudeau and Jacinda Ardern will show the way to absolute rule.
"The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington, D.C., said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces appear to be withdrawing from Severodonetsk, allowing Russian forces to conquer the key city.
"Ukrainian forces are now apparently withdrawing from Severodonetsk rather than fighting to the end — a factor that has allowed the Russians to move into the city relatively rapidly after beginning their full-scale assault," the Institute for the Study of War said.
Posted by: Billy Budd ||
06/01/2022 9:45 Comments ||
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#5
They don't need to hold it. Just grind down the Russians and leave when the situation is untenable. A good chunk of the Russian military is there and will be combat ineffective for a long while after this. The Ukrainians can keep up picking them off all the while.
#6
Darth you are an imbecile! You need to put this in your imbecile Russophobic skull!
The Russian are in the righteous side of history.
There is no room in this country for the trash that you and the other geriatric residents continuously post in this blog.
You are finished, you and your trashy convictions …American exceptionalism……. you are a clown and mostly a conservative coward!
Disgusting .
If you can't comment without name calling maybe you should keep your fucking mouth shut
Posted by: Aca joe ||
06/01/2022 13:38 Comments ||
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#7
Hey Joe. Wipe your chin. You still have some of Putie-pie's cum on it.
Didn't you admit you're from Belarus or some such shit the other day?
Posted by: Frank G ||
06/01/2022 14:55 Comments ||
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#12
Didn't you admit you're from Belarus or some such shit the other day?
As I recall, Mr. Joe said he worked a solid career in the rag trade for the Acapulco Joe company (the company started in Acapulco, Mexico in the 1970s, boomed in the mid-1980s, adding 100 stores across the U.S., then crashed in 1988 and returned to its Mexican roots), and is now retired somewhere in California that begins with an M.
[GALLOP] WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup's Economic Confidence Index measured -45 in May, down from -39 in each of the previous two months. It is the lowest reading in Gallup's trend during the coronavirus pandemic, and likely the lowest confidence has been since the tail end of the Great Recession in early 2009.
Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is a summary measure of Americans' perceptions of current economic conditions and their outlook for the economy. It has a theoretical range of +100 (if all respondents say the economy is excellent or good and that it is getting better) to -100 (if all say it is poor and getting worse).
The latest results are based on a May 2-22 Gallup poll, conducted at a time of record-high gas prices, elevated inflation, government reports of declining economic growth in the first quarter, and a slumping stock market. Low unemployment is a rare bright spot, but employers are still struggling to find workers to fill needed jobs, which is contributing to ongoing supply chain problems.
Gallup has measured Americans' perceptions of the economy on its multiday telephone surveys since 1992, but did so infrequently between 2009 and 2017. It is possible that confidence was lower at some point during those years than it is now.
At Ga. Fuel Stations
87 Octane Gas $4.01 to $4.15 per/gal
Diesel Up to $5.49 to $5.69 per/gal
Also noticed a number of people now using Octane Booster additives and buying cheaper gas.
In our case being Retired and on fixed income, we have eliminated any new purchases of Steak, Bacon and Chicken Wings.
NOTE: Country Boys will survive
It seem here in GA Feral Hogs in the creek areas around us are in good supply. GA's Wild Hog season is all year with NO LIMIT and can be hunted day or night and baiting is allowed. Averaging 100+lbs dressed out, 2 hogs (150lbs) and a few Butchers will cut it up and wrap it, after hours for a hindquarter. That should last about 18 months, until the regime changes in DC.
#2
...but employers are still struggling to find workers to fill needed jobs, which is contributing to ongoing supply chain problems.
Thanks in no small part to Federal & state governments actively fighting against it with generous unemployment benefits so all the slackers can get baked all day and get caught up on Jerry Springer reruns.
#6
^ Greasiest stuff I ever ate. Someone gave me a bunch of wild hog sausage, as soon as I saw how greasy it was, I threw the rest away.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
06/01/2022 10:21 Comments ||
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#7
all the slackers can get baked all day and get caught up on Jerry Springer reruns
Something seriously wrong with people who will sit and watch the likes of Jerry Springer, Dr. Phil or Oprah Winfrey. Maybe it's better if they never work, never marry and never have kids.
Posted by: Abu Uluque ||
06/01/2022 11:43 Comments ||
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#8
I blame it all on poor messaging by underperforming WH staffers. They need to step up their game.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
06/01/2022 13:04 Comments ||
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[OpenTheBooks] Who knew that LA lifeguards—who work in the sun, ocean surf, and golden sands of California— could reap such unbelievable financial reward?
It’s time we put Baywatch on pay watch. In 2019, we found top-paid lifeguards made up to $392,000.
Unfortunately, today, the pay and benefits are even more lucrative.
Daniel Douglas was the most highly paid and earned $510,283, an increase from $442,712 in 2020. As the “lifeguard captain,” he out-earned 1,000 of his peers: salary ($150,054), perks ($28,661), benefits ($85,508), and a whopping $246,060 in overtime pay.
The second highest paid, lifeguard chief Fernando Boiteux, pulled down $463,517 – up from $393,137 last year.
Our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com found 98 LA lifeguards earned at least $200,000 including benefits last year, and 20 made between $300,000 and $510,283. Thirty-seven lifeguards made between $50,000 and $247,000 in overtime alone.
And it’s not only about the cash compensation. After 30 years of service, LA lifeguards can retire as young as 55 on 79-percent of their pay.
Posted by: NoMoreBS ||
06/01/2022 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[11125 views]
Top|| File under: Tin Hat Dictators, Presidents for Life, & Kleptocrats
#1
OT doesn't usually figure into pensionable pay
Posted by: Frank G ||
06/01/2022 11:31 Comments ||
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#2
He can probably afford 1500 sq ft, 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths in Southgate.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
06/01/2022 13:02 Comments ||
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[OneIndia] The problem of radicalisation in Kerala is debated very often in the Intelligence circles.
The recent incident of sloganeering by a minor in Kerala has put the focus back on the most spoken about subjects in the state-radicalisation. If one closely looks at the manner in which the agencies have worked in Kerala, it is clear that they have given it their all to try and control the menace of radicalisation.
Officials say that they have identified the problem, tracked down the culprits, found their source of funds and even took down social media accounts spreading hate. However all this remains on paper because the political will is lacking or is deliberately lacking, says an official.
Without a political will or backing there is only this much an official can do. The orders to stall or deviate from the investigations come from the political class.
Former officer with the Research and Analysis Wing, Amar Bhushan tells OneIndia that the problem in some of the southern states, especially Kerala is that an official is never given a free hand to operate.
Officials have all the information and if allowed to be used correctly, the problem of radicalisation can be wiped out. However some do not go ahead as they have the fear of being tripped over, he explained.
Another official who did not wished to be named said that the security agencies can go all out considering the information they have, but the politics comes in the way while dealing with such issues especially radicalisation.
Earlier this month, the police in Kerala started the paperwork but haven't done much else after a Moslem boy was seen chanting hate slogans during a political rally last week. The police acted after the Kerala High Court expressed grave concern about children being used in political and religious rallies.
Following the incident that took place at Alappuzha last week, Justice Gopinath of the Kerala High Court said, 'aren't hey fostering a new generation that grows up with religious hatred in their minds? When this child grows up and becomes a major, his mind will already be conditioned to this kind of rhetoric. Something must be done."
The agencies are also looking at whether there are special groups that have been formed by these radical organizations to train children in particular.
These are serious issues officials explain. If such special groups are not acted upon then they will train more children and one can only imagine the nightmare in the future.
The problem with dealing with radicalisation in Kerala is that there are parties which latch on to the support of Moslem dominated parties. This has stood in the way thus making the job for the security agencies extremely difficult, he also adds.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
