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2012-02-05 Afghanistan

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Posted by trailing wife 2012-02-05 06:02|| || Front Page|| [1 views ] Top

#1 From the previous article:

"As far as the neighbours are concerned, they should understand that Afghanistan has suffered an insurgency for the last thirty years and needs the right size of forces with the right capability," said an official in a no-names briefing. "The [Afghan] Ministry of Finance says that ten billion [dollars] a year are required for the security and non-security budget to keep things going. The current costs of the war [over $120 billion, according to NATO analysts in Brunsumm], when compared, will make this figure look like nothing. Reading the tea leaves makes things look not all that bad...One month of a military campaign is equal to the annual cost of a [post 2014] stabilizing campaign...It's worth exploiting!"

The bolded part is key. I suspect the Afghans will get by with $2b of annual military grants, given that the Pakistani budget is only $6b, with a force size several times larger and covers the cost of a navy. The reason the Taliban was able to take over previously was because we cut off the opposition cold, money-wise, after the Soviets withdrew, even as the ISI funded the Taliban. A few hundred million a year to Ahmad Shah Massoud after the Soviet withdrawal could have saved us $1T in war-related expenses. But you know what they say about Humpty Dumpty...

Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-02-05 14:26|| 2012-02-05 14:26|| Front Page Top

#2 All sides in Afghanistan are gearing up for the civil war that will happen (restart) when the West leaves.

But this time around the Uzbecks and Tadjiks will be well prepared and the Pushtun the losers.

Posted by phil_b 2012-02-05 16:28|| 2012-02-05 16:28|| Front Page Top

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