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Area: WoT Operations    WoT Background    Non-WoT        Politix   
Expel Syrian Envoys, Says Arab League Official
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Page 6: Politix
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Afghanistan
The Other Guy's Endgame - Part II
See Part I here. Part 1 was all lyrical evaluation. Part II is key quotes from an impressive number of interviews, organized by subject -- feeling much like a Cliff Notes summary. Topic questions in bold, for easier reading.
How does the 'fighting, talking, developing' strategy really play out?

Sir Simon Gass - NATO Ambassador to Kabul (Highest ranking foreign civilian in Afghanistan):

"If they keep fighting they will lose, that's a good reason to come to the negotiating table. In 2005 and '06, the big resurgence of the insurgency wasn't because they were under huge military pressure, rather because there wasn't enough pressure. So we have to keep on applying the pressure so they know they can't return."

How does Pakistan play out on the ground?

NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands (the European nerve center of NATO/ISAF's operations):

"Pak is important for our fuel and other contracts to kick in. Simply, it's important for the war machine to move forward."

A decade into the war, how does a military planner - not a politician - explain the progress in Afghanistan?

Lt. Col. Ian Kippen (UK Army), Battle-Space Briefer at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands:

"Design a difficult campaign, and Afghanistan is the perfect recipe for failure. Weather, temperature, droughts, terror. Even the ability for government is an issue. Today, the NATO mission in Afghanistan is like herding cats. For example, revision number six of the ISAF 'OPlan' [Operations Plan] is under work right now. For some of us, that means that five plans have not gone according to, well...plan."

2014 is still two years away. Is NATO going to have the resolve?

NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands (the European nerve center of NATO/ISAF's operations):

"The economic crisis is testing NATO cohesion and will. The relationship between the US and the European countries is not black and white, but yin and yang. But there is an imbalance between US spending power and EU facilitation. The economic crisis in Europe is taking a toll, for sure. But then, Europe has always been the logistic while the US has been the military arm of NATO. However, France is the outsider inside. Watching France operate in Afghanistan is important, as it has a tendency to go its own way, but also set trends within NATO. The smaller countries, unhappy with not being given a larger administrative role, are going to make noises as well."

What about the criticism that it is NATO/ISAF presence that gives rise to the insurgency, and not the other way around?

Col. Jan Halvert (Royal Dutch Army), PA Division, Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands:

"The war was limited in the early years. The troop numbers were smaller until 2007-09. That's when things changed. Maybe because more troops came and NATO became a 'Magnet of the South'.

What are the 'Pakistan priorities' for NATO/ISAF's operational planning towards the 2014 drawdown?

NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands:

"It's simple, really. Firstly, fire from Pak is a problem, so sort that out. Secondly, minimize risk of ISAF engaging Pak. Here the meetings of the Corps Commanders help. Also, Pakistani officers brief General Allen regularly in Kabul, so that helps too. As for Pakistan's involvement with the ANSF [Afghan National Security Forces] goes, don't expect any mentoring from Pak officers yet, but the offer has come, along with India."

How does the 'fighting, talking, developing' strategy really play out?

Sir Simon Gass - NATO Ambassador to Kabul (Highest ranking foreign civilian in Afghanistan):

"If they keep fighting they will lose, that's a good reason to come to the negotiating table. In 2005 and '06, the big resurgence of the insurgency wasn't because they were under huge military pressure, rather because there wasn't enough pressure. So we have to keep on applying the pressure so they know they can't return."

How does Pakistan play out on the ground?

NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands (the European nerve center of NATO/ISAF's operations):

"Pak is important for our fuel and other contracts to kick in. Simply, it's important for the war machine to move forward."

A decade into the war, how does a military planner - not a politician - explain the progress in Afghanistan?

Lt. Col. Ian Kippen (UK Army), Battle-Space Briefer at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands:

"Design a difficult campaign, and Afghanistan is the perfect recipe for failure. Weather, temperature, droughts, terror. Even the ability for government is an issue. Today, the NATO mission in Afghanistan is like herding cats. For example, revision number six of the ISAF 'OPlan' [Operations Plan] is under work right now. For some of us, that means that five plans have not gone according to, well...plan."

2014 is still two years away. Is NATO going to have the resolve?

NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands (the European nerve center of NATO/ISAF's operations):

"The economic crisis is testing NATO cohesion and will. The relationship between the US and the European countries is not black and white, but yin and yang. But there is an imbalance between US spending power and EU facilitation. The economic crisis in Europe is taking a toll, for sure. But then, Europe has always been the logistic while the US has been the military arm of NATO. However, France is the outsider inside. Watching France operate in Afghanistan is important, as it has a tendency to go its own way, but also set trends within NATO. The smaller countries, unhappy with not being given a larger administrative role, are going to make noises as well."

What about the criticism that it is NATO/ISAF presence that gives rise to the insurgency, and not the other way around?

Col. Jan Halvert (Royal Dutch Army), PA Division, Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands:

"The war was limited in the early years. The troop numbers were smaller until 2007-09. That's when things changed. Maybe because more troops came and NATO became a 'Magnet of the South'.

What are the 'Pakistan priorities' for NATO/ISAF's operational planning towards the 2014 drawdown?

NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands:

"It's simple, really. Firstly, fire from Pak is a problem, so sort that out. Secondly, minimize risk of ISAF engaging Pak. Here the meetings of the Corps Commanders help. Also, Pakistani officers brief General Allen regularly in Kabul, so that helps too. As for Pakistan's involvement with the ANSF [Afghan National Security Forces] goes, don't expect any mentoring from Pak officers yet, but the offer has come, along with India."

What about the India angle?

NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands (the European nerve center of NATO/ISAF's operations):

"The Pakistan versus India role is important. For instance, India wants to invest in Herat for iron ores. Now, we would want to ship that out of Pakistan versus Iran or China. China already owns 95 percent of global minerals, so it's got enough. Iran has penetrated Afghanistan through oil, while it has a deep distrust of the Taliban but supplies weapons and IEDs to them, just to stick it to the west. So frankly, we would rather India and Pakistan work things out, and not the other way around."

There is an impression in Pakistan that the Afghan government favours India, e.g. Kabul has signed a recent strategic partnership with New Delhi, which the Indians claim, was pushed for by the Afghans themselves. Can Islamabad expect a similar push?

Dr. Hakim Asher, Spokesperson for the Government of Afghanistan and President Karzai:

"We will come to that later. Right now we have other issues and bigger problems between our countries."

How many insurgents are operating in Afghanistan?

Col. Jan Halvert (Royal Dutch Army), PA Division, Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands:

"No idea of the number of Taliban out there."

Brig. General Carsten Jacobsen (Deutsch Army), ISAF Spokesman:

"2000 Taliban, maybe? But maybe there is a five-digit number? Who knows how to quantify the hardcore of extremists...The ones who will never give up. What about someone frustrated who becomes a sympathizer. Is he just a local, or an insurgent? The number of Taliban is not important. The intensity is. There is no size of battle. You can't kill them, but you can overwhelm them. "

But insurgents win by not losing: Isn't that the basis of guerilla war? How, and when, can you claim victory when they can even strike within Kabul?

Governor Fidayee of Wardak Province:

"There might be attacks in Kabul, but there are successes too. What about the Loya Jirga? How did that happen without a hiccup? Listen: ANA [Afghan National Army], ANP [Afghan National Police] and NDS [National Directorate for Security] cannot be beaten by the insurgents conventionally. Never. Our goals are to defeat them in a different way. Today, four of my districts are ready for transition [for total Afghan control taken from NATO/ISAF]. So not just security bothers me [sic]. We will be deliberate and gradual."

The NATO/ISAF footprint is seen by the insurgency, by some locals and by some neighbours as an occupation. Isn't it?

Lt. Col. Steve Kissler, Georgia Army National Guard (Agribusiness Development Team), Wardak Province:

"Golly. We see and hear, mostly hear, about things that are happening all around us. But the people we deal with make us feel that they want our help...These people who we're helping...They either haven't thought to do it themselves, or they need the help. That's why they ask"

What about the Salalah incident? How will that play out for NATO/ISAF?

High-ranking ISAF military official in Kabul who asked not to be named for the record:

"It's going to go far beyond the military. There are going to be several questions. The integration of the Pakistan Army in the operation as well as the Durand Line and its sanctity will come into play. Remember that the Durand Line is not clear anywhere from 1.8 to 5 kilometers depending on where one is standing. The insurgency uses it as a playground, and is using it against us with Salalah."

The Pakistanis fear the worst as far as NATO/ISAF's intentions regarding Salalah are concerned. Should they?

Brig. General Carsten Jacobsen (Deutsch Army), ISAF Spokesman:

"This [Salalah] is the best thing that could have happened to the Taliban. Allen met Kayani the same day! Of course, it's a setback. But would we give it the same importance as the Bin Laden incident? That will have to be watched, and consulates as well as convoys could get affected and will have to be watched too. There are larger problems here...of a tension with Pakistan. We are using Pakistan's roads, yes, but are not dependent on them."

There is a school that believes that war will always go on around these parts, that the Afghans know nothing else. Does NATO/ISAF reflect on that?

Brig. General Carsten Jacobsen (Deutsch Army), ISAF Spokesman:

"The Afghan memory and foresight is longer for war. No body would be in their right mind to claim to understand how much war these people can take. But the insurgency will die only with so many areas they can't deal with."

Pakistan is often associated with the insurgency in the Western narrative. What's the word in Afghanistan itself?

Mirwaiz Orya, Tolo TV News Anchor in Kabul:

"What I ask my guests and analysts everyday is that if the home of the terrorists is Pakistan, as president Karzai says, then why is the US helping the ISI and the Pakistani military? Everyday I ask this. And everyday I get no answers."

What evidence is there of Pakistani involvement in the insurgency?

Dr. Hakim Asher, Spokesperson for the Government of Afghanistan and President Karzai:

"We now know that even the Lashkar-e-Taiyaba, equipped by the ISI, works here. We have the confessions of the arrested terrorists. We will share this evidence with Pakistan when we have to. Some evidence we have already shared."

What's the bottom-line of the Pakistan narrative here?

Brig. General Carsten Jacobsen (Deutsch Army), ISAF Spokesman:

"The perception of Pakistan continues to drive the conflict. But only the insurgency wins."

Kemal Nematullah, reintegrated former Taliban Commander, Badakshan Province:

"Pakistan has always created problems for Afghanistan and has today destroyed Afghanistan. This will not end."

Dr. Hakim Asher, Spokesperson for the Government of Afghanistan and President Karzai:

"They are friends. But some within them want the terrorists to go on...It's not the Pakistan Army. It's the ISI which wants this."

What's the difference? Why make the divide between the Pakistani military and the ISI?

General Ally, Provincial Chief of the National Directorate for Security (NDS), Badakshan Province

"You know better than me, the difference."

Where is the Pakistani military headed? What does it want now?

High-level NATO executive in Kabul who asked not to be named for the record

"Look, OBL was traumatic, it shook their military, and it was a setback. Pakistan may encourage the peace process, but it all depends on Pak. Frankly, I'm doubtful about the peace process really taking off before 2013. And I don't see a PakMil suddenly surrounding the Haqqanis, either."

Does the NATO/ISAF narrative perceive Pakistan as an enemy?

Lt. Jamie Holm, 1st Armored Division, US Army, Forward Operating Base Airborne, Wardak Province:

"Honestly, as an American soldier, I think Pakistan could be one of our greatest allies. Definitely a better ally than India. Why? Because Pakistan and the US are both revolutionary countries.
I have no idea what that means.
They've both fought their way for freedom. That makes us natural allies, does it not?

What about the peace process?

Hasb-e-Allah, reintegrated former Taliban Commander, Badakshan Province:

"People are not just joining the peace process, which is flawed and doesn't inspire any hope. Rather, they are joining the NDS [National Directorate of Security], as the NDS can promise action and results. What can 'peace' promise? Peace doesn't have any Army. The NDS does.

Peace also depends on the strategy of the Afghan government for reintegration and reconciliation with the Taliban. How confident is it of achieving these goals? Are reformed insurgents here to stay?

General Ally, Provincial Chief of the National Directorate for Security (NDS), Badakshan Province

"They will never do anything against our national security. People think they're simple Taliban fighting in the mountains who give up their arms. They're not. Nobody knows what they've been doing in the past for us. They're Afghans. And they actually cut the roots of the Taliban."

After 2014, will drones continue to play a role in the Afghan battlefield?

Lt. Col. Ian Kippen (UK Army), Battle-Space Briefer at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands:

"There are no drone strikes inside Afghanistan today. Drone are only used for recon [surveillance] purposes. But drone strikes are foreseeable in the future, after ISAF.

Does the region have a future of war?

Lt. Col. Ian Kippen (UK Army), Battle-Space Briefer at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands:

"Thanks to 'Military Technology Inflation', we have a new problem. Because everything has a computer in it, and as the low tolerance for military casualties has increased, war has become expensive. That means smaller armies and more alliances will pave the way for the West. However, for the region, China and India will be outliers. They will continue to have massive militaries."

As the war effort draws down and the peace talks begin, does 'the enemy' get redefined?

Saleem Adil, disabled former soldier and worker at Afghan Spark Anti-Mining Tool Factory, Kabul

"Fighting against the mines saves lives. I don't know if fighting against the Taliban does the same. I can't see the mines. But I can see the Taliban and protect myself."

Will this insurgency ever end?

Brig. General Carsten Jacobsen (Deutsch Army), ISAF Spokesman:

"Insurgency is not ended by a decisive battle. It won't be over if we all meet in Jalalabad."

Khan, a Harvard Shorenstein Fellow and an Asia Society Global Young Leader, is a Senior Reporter for The Friday Times. @wajskhan on Twitter andwajahat_khan@hks.harvard.edu
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: trailing wife || 02/05/2012 06:02 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  From the previous article:

"As far as the neighbours are concerned, they should understand that Afghanistan has suffered an insurgency for the last thirty years and needs the right size of forces with the right capability," said an official in a no-names briefing. "The [Afghan] Ministry of Finance says that ten billion [dollars] a year are required for the security and non-security budget to keep things going. The current costs of the war [over $120 billion, according to NATO analysts in Brunsumm], when compared, will make this figure look like nothing. Reading the tea leaves makes things look not all that bad...One month of a military campaign is equal to the annual cost of a [post 2014] stabilizing campaign...It's worth exploiting!"

The bolded part is key. I suspect the Afghans will get by with $2b of annual military grants, given that the Pakistani budget is only $6b, with a force size several times larger and covers the cost of a navy. The reason the Taliban was able to take over previously was because we cut off the opposition cold, money-wise, after the Soviets withdrew, even as the ISI funded the Taliban. A few hundred million a year to Ahmad Shah Massoud after the Soviet withdrawal could have saved us $1T in war-related expenses. But you know what they say about Humpty Dumpty...
Posted by: Zhang Fei || 02/05/2012 14:26 Comments || Top||

#2  All sides in Afghanistan are gearing up for the civil war that will happen (restart) when the West leaves.

But this time around the Uzbecks and Tadjiks will be well prepared and the Pushtun the losers.
Posted by: phil_b || 02/05/2012 16:28 Comments || Top||


Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Why Russia Loves Arab Tyrants
Russia is using its veto in the UN Security Council to prevent the organization of a UN military aid operation for the Syrian opposition. This prevents the kind of aid the Libyan rebels got. The Russians lost a lot of money when the Libyan dictatorship was overthrown. There were unpaid billions for weapons already delivered, plus lost future sales. For decades, Libya had been a major customer for Russian weapons. The new Libyan government will not buy any more Russian weapons and will not honor unpaid bills for past deliveries.
It seems that for decades Qadaffy, not Libya, was a major customer for Russian weaponry. The NTC figures Aisha and Hannibal and Saadi can pay off Pop's debts. Having supported their nattily dressed client rather than jumping on the NTC bandwagon, Putin and Co. are now paying the price.
Russia is determined not to lose Syria in the same way.
You can tell Putin is a genius by the fact that he's not supporting the coming new regime so as to get on their good side, but sticking with the existing, literally fascist, regime. A popular form of insanity involves doing the same thing over and over again and expecting to get different results.
This Russian opposition sends a message that a dictatorship can openly (via the Internet and cell-phone photos) slaughter their people and maintain tyrannical rule in spite of most UN members condemning this sort of misbehavior.
And now Russers seem to be turning out in the streets to toss a few words at Waldemar and Duh-mitri..
If a tyrant has one of the few UN nations with a Security Council veto on their side, bloody repression can be used without fear of armed intervention. Most of the world doesn't like this, but Russia is a nuclear power and determined to use its veto to serve Russian interests.
Even when serving Russia's interests in the short term demolishes Russia's interests in the long term. Go figure.

More Strategy Page discussion follows, filling in detail...
Posted by: Chique Unock2033 || 02/05/2012 09:57 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  That's why the push to develop energy distribution. Norway has an unemployment rate of 2.5%. Each Norwegian is $100,000 in the black in their government fund. Energy is the way out for the USA and Russia. Should they let things fall apart it may take years to rebuild. That will make things much worse for Russia. Russian interests are to the west not the east. China is no bussomed buddy. With the election in Russia the public is in no mood for economic or polical troubles. Europe needs the energy. Greece needs the revenue as does Turkey and Israel. Build and repair.
Posted by: Dale || 02/05/2012 11:50 Comments || Top||

#2  You can tell Putin is a genius by the fact that he's not supporting the coming new regime so as to get on their good side

(a) Since Russia made "kinetic action" impossible, the current regime is going to survive.
(b) The alternative to Assad are Ikhwan---and they don't have a good side.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru || 02/05/2012 15:25 Comments || Top||

#3  See also CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > [China Economic Blog] IRAN-CHINA TRADE EXCEEDS US$40.0BILYUHN IN 2011 [up US$16.0B from 2010], besides also another repor US$40.0Bilyuhn or so worth of bilateral Oil-Gas dev contracts in lieu of Western firms.
Posted by: JosephMendiola || 02/05/2012 20:21 Comments || Top||

#4  A popular form of insanity involves doing the same thing over and over again and expecting to get different results.

Oh... do you mean like knee-jerk support of people calling themselves "The Opposition" without digging a little deeper and seeing that they are Salafist Sunni Fundamentalists?
Posted by: Secret Master || 02/05/2012 20:25 Comments || Top||

#5  Russia is making the point that they won't abandon their customers (at least politically). Good for business, bad for relations with the West.
Posted by: Rjschwarz || 02/05/2012 21:31 Comments || Top||

#6  Oh, it is so charming that Vlad, the most westernized of the Czars, has discovered that the west has success precisely because unlike the Russians we don't usually sell out our friends. But expect him to revert to form in short order.

We should offer him a Guantanamo perpetual port treaty on Tartous and a guarantee that Israel will buy a billion dollars of Russian rifles and ammo from U.S. military aide money next year.

He would come around.
Posted by: rammer || 02/05/2012 23:52 Comments || Top||


Europe
Is Europe instigating a clash between Muslims and the West?
... through insufficient appeasement?
Posted by: ryuge || 02/05/2012 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Red on red.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru || 02/05/2012 7:21 Comments || Top||


India-Pakistan
Backgrounder: Mullah, the Talib and Pashtun society
Pashtuns are believed to be the largest segmentary lineage society in the world today. They have been living in their defined homeland areas since ages, in a social order loosely defined by the code of Pashtunwali.

They believe in the myth that they are children of one common ancestor, Qaise, who converted to Islam once he met the Prophet Muhammad (PTUI!)
. However,
a person who gets all wrapped up in himself makes a mighty small package...
there is historical evidence that Pashtuns did not convert in mass and as late as 12th century there were non-Moslem Pashtuns residing in tribal areas.

In the Pashtun society, customs have generally been more dominant than religion
Being a leaderless society, the tribal system does not usually develop institutionalized political power. They feel that all Pashtuns are born equal and individuals can change the existing social and economic inequality. Tribals lead a semi independent life as per their code of conduct, managing their social issues and disputes through a council of elders known as Jirga. Invaders passed through the lands of some of these tribes for thousand of years, but did not bring any significant change in their social system.

These tribes, on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistain border, were almost independent. The Sikhs administered these areas by maintaining strong forces at district level; but the tribes openly asserted their independence. The relations of the British with the tribes depended on the situation in Afghanistan. They did not make any serious effort to penetrate the area except for some punitive expeditions and defending the passes which led to Afghanistan. The Durand Line divided tribes on both sides, but the British provided them with easement rights for their back and forth movement. They used the tribal areas as the second buffer between them and Russia, the first being Afghanistan.

After the creation of Pakistain, a special status was granted to these areas. They were declared Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Tribals were used as non-state actors in both the Kashmire wars of 1947-48 and 1965.

Until the 1970s, about 70% of the tribal areas were administratively inaccessible. No Pak official was allowed to enter. In 1973, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto
...9th PM of Pakistain from 1973 to 1977, and 4th President of Pakistain from 1971 to 1973. He was the founder of the Pakistain Peoples Party (PPP). His eldest daughter, Benazir Bhutto, would also serve as hereditary PM. In a coup led by General Zia-ul-Haq, Bhutto was removed from office and was executed in 1979 for authorizing the murder of a political opponent...
formulated a policy of opening up of the tribal areas through development. An industrial unit was established in each agency. Two new agencies, Bajaur and Orakzai, were formed. Electricity was provided to some of the areas and road infrastructure was developed. Some of the areas that were opened up had tactical importance during the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. Most of the remaining inaccessible areas like Tirah and Shawal were partially opened in the aftermath of 9/11.

In the Pashtun social system, the inhabitants of a village are normally divided into three segments, the Pashtuns, Mian or Mullah (religious functionaries) and Kasabgars (professionals, like barbers and carpenters). The influential class has always been the Pashtuns. The Kasabgars have seldom challenged the authority of Pashtuns; they have concentrated on earning their livelihood and providing education to their children. A number of them excelled in fields like medicine, engineering, education, armed forces and even in politics. But once they make a name for themselves, they want to be known as Pashtun, by aligning with the tribe in whose area they were born and brought up.

The roles of the Khan or Malik and the government officials posted in the area are well defined. They derive legitimacy from state laws. The Mullah is made to perform only some religious rituals. And he is not content with this limited role. He wants his role to be defined and expanded to make him part of the decision-making process in the Pashtun society. Religious people have led almost all the Pashtun uprisings against invaders in history. Followers of Ahmed Shah Barelvi (1863) rose against Sikhs and the British, Pir Roshan (16th century) against Akbar, Sartor Faqir (1897) against the British, Powinda Mullah (1893-1913) also against the British. Faqir of Ipi (1935-1947) was also a key resistance fighter. The leadership of these movements remained with the Mullah only for the duration of the Jihad. When the battles were over, the Khans and Maliks became leaders again.

In the Pashtun society, Rawaj (custom) has generally been more dominant than religion. Music, dance, non-observance of pardha within a tribe, women shaking hands with men, were commonly seen in Pashtuns. They would perform all rituals religiously, but would never force these on others, except for fasting, which is considered an act of Pashtun honor.

The Afghan Jihad did not bring any significant change in the life of the average Pashtun. The Pashtun society started changing once preachers started going to these areas. They were peaceful, polite, and non-coercive, and they were able to persuade older Pashtuns to lay down some restrictions on the younger ones. Music, which was a regular feature of hujras and weddings, was banned in some areas.

But the event that really changed the Pashtun way of life was the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The Talib was a familiar character in each Pashtun village, known as Chinay in Pashto. Docile, well mannered, quite, friendly, not interfering, not preaching, just concerned with his own task, collecting food for the imam of the mosque. In November 1994, once the Taliban captured Kandahar, nobody, including the intelligence agencies, was sure who they were, and who was supporting them. They suspected it was the US.

In the next few years, what the Taliban practiced was in contrast with Pashtun culture. Under the influence of Al Qaeda, they tried to implement Wahabi and Salafi culture. Inspired by them, the talibs of Pakistain also raised forces in Orakzai and North Wazoo. In the aftermath of 9/11 and NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A collection of multinational and multilingual and multicultural armed forces, all of differing capabilities, working toward a common goal by pulling in different directions...
operations in Afghanistan, members of Al Qaeda, Pak Jihadis, secterian outfits, Uighur fighters from China, and groups from Central Asia took refuge in FATA and other parts of Pakistain. Jihadi organizations and some tribals supported them.

The state could not decide on the course of action to be taken against them. They had never seen such a situation in the past. The tribals suspected that state was supporting these elements, therefore they submitted to the Taliban, who used brute force against prominent tribal elders.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: trailing wife || 02/05/2012 06:51 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Tribes with flags.

Fence them off from the rest of the world and let them stew.
Posted by: AlanC || 02/05/2012 9:14 Comments || Top||


Political rivalry
[Dawn] LAST Wednesday, the federal government expressed a desire to take up the issue of the latest Difaa-e-Pakistain Council meeting with the Punjab government. This was at best a political statement for the consumption of an assorted audience -- in the absence of an administrative arrangement that would oblige provinces to respond to the centre's queries in such matters. The issue was the participation of a leader of a 'banned' group in the DPC rally in Multan on Jan 29. Given that eyebrows have been raised about the recently founded DPC and its politics, the presence of Malik Ishaq, the leader of the 'banned' and very turban Lashkar-e-Jhangvi,
... a 'more violent' offshoot of Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistain. LeJ's purpose in life is to murder anyone who's not of utmost religious purity, starting with Shiites but including Brelvis, Ahmadis, Christians, Jews, Buddhists, Rosicrucians, and just about anyone else you can think of. They are currently a wholly-owned subsidiary of al-Qaeda ...
could not go unnoticed by the PPP-led government. The latter took the opportunity to follow up on the N League-LJ thread that goes back to the League's public courting of prominent Lashkar members for votes in a by-election in Jhang some time ago. The highlighting of the link catered to all those who are upset with the mixing of national politics with various brands of jihadis. Equally or perhaps even more importantly, it was an opportunity for the PPP to try and hit at the PML-N's credibility with jihad-wary international players.

This is surely not a matter of principles, for principles are as routinely flouted in Pak politics as bans are violated and 'defunct tags' worn as medals of gallantry. Basically, it has to do with how political parties here -- those in power and their challengers -- go about identifying and pleasing their allies in a particular situation. The current PML-N government in Punjab has generally kept its distance from the PPP-led set-up in Islamabad. Punjab has been particularly keen to show off this gap over the centre's approach to the war against militancy. This gap will increase as the election comes closer and the manoeuvring for power intensifies.

This article starring:
Malik IshaqLashkar-e-Jhangvi
Posted by: Fred || 02/05/2012 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Pakistan


Farces and fiascos
[Dawn] ODDLY, the two institutions that bang the accountability drum the loudest are the very ones that won't submit to oversight themselves.

The higher judiciary has used the threat of contempt of court laws to pre-empt any criticism. The security establishment relies on its muscle and its close connections with sections of the media to win immunity from public criticism.

Doubters only have to glance through the report produced by the commission set up to investigate Saleem Shahzad's murder. Even though the crime corresponded to the pattern of earlier allegedly officially inspired kidnappings and beatings suffered by journalists, the commission hardly noticed the parallel. The report effectively let our notorious intelligence agencies off the hook.

And when the defence establishment was clearly responsible for the entire the late Osama bin Laden
... who sleeps with the fishes...
fiasco last May, the media promptly zeroed in on the civilian government, even though it had nothing to do with the matter. Imran Khan
... aka Taliban Khan, who who convinced himself that playing cricket qualified him to lead a nuclear-armed nation with severe personality problems...
went so far as to demand Asif Ali President Ten Percent Zardari's
... sticky-fingered husband of the late Benazir Bhutto ...
resignation.

Accountability is not just about corruption: those in positions of authority also need to accept responsibility -- and possible punishment -- for acts of omission and commission which have resulted in setbacks to the country. For example, every war with India was initiated -- and lost -- by our army. Which general has ever resigned or been punished for his incompetence?

It does not take a military historian to conclude that while our junior officers and jawans fought valiantly, they have invariably been let down by their high command. These same generals have been pampered more than any other officer corps, and yet have lost battle after battle with monotonous regularity. Needless to say, no uniformed head has ever rolled.

Or take our entire defence policy and posture: dictated entirely by the military establishment, it was never debated; and our occasional and powerless civilian leaders have hardly any input in it.

Nevertheless, we are forced to contribute to strategies that have dragged us ever deeper into insecurity rather than making us safer. Our Afghan and Kashmire policies are examples of repeated failure to evaluate threats intelligently. And yet we continue to plod along on the course chosen by GHQ, bleeding lives and treasure as a result. Who has even been questioned for these repeated failures?

The Supreme Court, for its part, has validated military coups time and again, thereby distorting the course of Pakistain's political development. Which judge has ever been pilloried for any of these self-serving judgments?

Now we have the 'memogate' scandal. For weeks, the country was gripped by a drama scripted by mysterious agencies, and propelled by the judiciary, the military and the media.

The civilian government was destabilised. One ambassador resigned, while the defence secretary was sacked.

But when the audience was getting impatient, and the curtain about to open, one of the two principal actors got cold feet and refused to emerge on the stage. The fact that somebody with the kind of shady reputation Mansoor Ijaz has acquired was allowed to shake the foundations of the state, thanks to the patronage and support he is perceived to have received
from the establishment, shows what a banana republic we really are.

Here's a character who has consistently lambasted the military and the ISI in the foreign media. That he is apparently being used as a pawn against an elected government is an indication of the immaturity and cynicism of those involved in this entire murky episode. But who actually used who is something we will probably never learn.

Meanwhile,
...back at the chili cook-off, Chuck and Manuel's rivalry was entering a new and more dangerous phase...
spare a thought for the commission set up by the Supreme Court to look into 'memogate'. The American businessman, having had his moment in the limelight, no longer has the time to come to Pakistain. Presumably, the honourable members of the commission can now return to their main job of dispensing justice to a hard-pressed people. Maybe they will even find the time to clean up the mess in the lower courts under them.

But who has claimed the credit for causing this needless furore in the first place? Who among the media, the judiciary or the military has raised his hand to say he was wrong? On the contrary, the farce grinds on, long after the bored audience has left.

Nobody has ever accused the security establishment of being over-endowed in terms of IQ. But surely even our generals must realise that a country destabilised by their shenanigans is bound to suffer in a variety of ways. At the end of the day, a sound economy is essential to support our bloated armed forces. A government that is under constant threat of being toppled unconstitutionally simply cannot provide good governance, even if it had the political will and the competence to do so.

Now that the prime minister has been summoned to face contempt of court proceedings, lesser mortals are well advised to keep their opinions about our higher judiciary to themselves. Leaving the court premises after a recent hearing, the PM's lawyer, Aitzaz Ahsan, asked rhetorically: "Why are only civilian prime ministers always being cited for contempt of court? Why not army generals?"

Foreigners are amazed at the endless stresses and strains our bewigged and uniformed chieftains put the system through. In the US, the UK and in Sri Lanka, I was constantly asked to explain why Pakistain is in such a constant state of turmoil.

I cannot repeat my response to these well-meaning friends here for fear that it might fall under the purview of our wide-ranging and freely interpreted contempt of court laws.
Posted by: Fred || 02/05/2012 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Pakistan


Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Countdown to Zero in Tehran and Jerusalem
Posted by: tipper || 02/05/2012 09:26 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  I'm not convinced Israel will unilateral attack Iran at this time - iff Israel's history of striking enemy NucProgs = Reactors, etc. is any measure, IT WOULD'VE ATTACKED IRAN'S NUCPLEXES ALREADY, + NOT BE GIVING OUT PUBLIC/MEDIA WARNING IT MAY ATTACK.

Again, while Israel's vaunted IDF can certainly strike Iran ONLY THE US-NATO = INTERNAT COALITION OF NATIONS CAN INVADE + OCCUPY IRAN, aka the best + ultimate method, albeit also the most geopol dangerous, of absolutely stopping Iran's NucProgs.

Despite its rhetoric to the contary, it is inconceivable that Iran will not desire to dev Nuclear Weapons because one of the major premises underlying the so-called OWG CALIPHATE = GLOBAL ISLAMIST-JIHADIST IS [minima]PARITY, IFF NOT SUPERIORITY OR DOMINANCE, OER THE NON-MUSLIM WORLD.

Then there is also the post-Cold War premise of GLOBALISM itself, + BIPOLAR or MULTIPOLAR WORLD, where smaller Powers or Wannabes get to rise in Geopol Authority = Power + Influence.

IOW, WIDOUT NUCWEAPS + ABILITY TO PROJECT POWER + INFLUENCE THERE WILL BE NO CALIPHATE = NO GLOBAL ISLAMIST-JIHADIST STATE, BE IT EARTH-BASED OWG OR ANY FUTURIST SPACE GOVT-ORDER.

Anyhoo, NUTSHELL = even iff Israel did attack Iran, by itself such an attack(s) may NOT be enough oer time to stop ambitious Islamist Iran from dev Nuclear Weapons.

IMO to de facto stop Iran's NucProgs comes down really to either INDUCING INTERNAL
"REGIME/POLICY CHANGE"; OR ELSE A US-LED GROUND INVASION e.g. 2003 Iraq.

Iff various Perts are correct in Iran having a basic or minimal, but reliable, stockpile of NucBombs 2012/13 NLT 2015, TIME FACTORS + DESIRE FOR CERTAINTY = GROUND INVASION + OCCUPATION MAY BE THE ONLY REAL OPTION SHORT OF JUST LETTING IRAN [+ Radical Islam MilTerrs] GO FULL MONTY NUCLEAR???

FYI NUTSHELL II = OSAMA, ETAL. + RADICAL ISLAM WON THE GWOT, NOT THE US.
Posted by: JosephMendiola || 02/05/2012 20:00 Comments || Top||

#2  FREEREPUBLIC, DEFENCE.PK/FORUMS > IRANIAN GUARDS [IRGC] TO HIT ANY COUNTRY THAT STAGES ATTACK [agz it].

Points of Origin.

See also related Artic below.

* XINHUA > IRAN TO STRIKE BACK IFF ATTACKED.

* WAFF > THE ARAB PLAN [GCC] TO STOP IRAN.

Absolutely positively categorically undeniably ....@etc. will use their combined MilPol Assets, etc. to stop Iran like the Arab League = desired future OWG Islamic Union unilaterally stopped Libyuh + is stopping Syruh.

You betcha.

* WAFF > HEAZBOLLAH WILL DEFEND THE SYRIAN REGIME [Assad] EVEN AT THE PRICE OF SPARKING WAR WID ISRAEL.

* FREEREPUBLIC > DRONES IS NOT ENOUGH.

Fun to think about, though.

* SAME > [MEMRI TV] FORMER MEMBER OF RUSSIAN JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF: RUSSIA READY TO USE ITS MILITARY POWER TO DEFEND IRAN.

* TOPIX > [Senior] IRGC COMMANDER: IRAN WILL NOT INITIATE ANY WAR, but its response or reaction to such will be swift.

D *** NG IT, IRAN DEMANDS ITS RIGHT TO BE INVADED!

IRGC BGEN. Mohammad Pakpour = IRAN WILL HIT US MILBASES IN TURKEY, AGFHANISTAN, + ALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST.

* SAME > EUROPEAN DIPLOMAT: IFF ISRAEL ATTACKS IRAN, PAKISTAN WILL RESPOND. Options for Pakland.

Dats NUKE-, LRBM-ARMED PAKISTAN in case you're wondering.

* IRANIAN MAJLIS [Parliament = Govt] WEBSITE: ATTACK ISRAEL THIS YEAR, before the EOY.

ARTIC = It will only take NINE MINUTES for Iran's MRBMS/MBMS, IRBMS to completely annihilate Israel [Military + Govt-Cities]???


Once again, Israel can certainly attack Iran but not be able to invade + occupy, which most accounts believe is the only real or certain way to stop Iran from dev NucWeaps. THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES WHAT KIND OF SITUATION OF HAPPENSTANCE WOULD INDUCE OR CAUSE A US-LED GROUND INVASION OF IRAN???
Posted by: JosephMendiola || 02/05/2012 23:45 Comments || Top||


Home Front: Culture Wars
Twisted concept of honour shames any civilised society
The key word there is "civilized," isn't it?
Posted by: tipper || 02/05/2012 11:54 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:



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Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.

Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has dominated Mexico for six years.
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Two weeks of WOT
Sun 2012-02-05
  Expel Syrian Envoys, Says Arab League Official
Sat 2012-02-04
  Libya's ex-envoy to France dies in custody
Fri 2012-02-03
  Britain Appoints First Ambassador to Somalia in 21 Years
Thu 2012-02-02
  Three top terror leaders killed in the Philippines
Wed 2012-02-01
  US raids kill 15 militants in Yemen
Tue 2012-01-31
  12,000 BNP, Jamaat men charged with violence
Mon 2012-01-30
  Assad's family caught trying to escape the country, returned to Damascus
Sun 2012-01-29
  Nigerian military kills 11 militants in northeast
Sat 2012-01-28
  UN loses count on Syria killings
Fri 2012-01-27
  Sectarian clashes kill at least 22 in Yemen
Thu 2012-01-26
  Woman Dead as Bombs, Bullets Rain on Nigeria Police Station
Wed 2012-01-25
  SEALS Spring Two, Bag Nine
Tue 2012-01-24
  EU imposes sanctions on Iran oil
Mon 2012-01-23
  U.S. aircraft carrier goes through Strait of Hormuz without incident
Sun 2012-01-22
  Syrian Forces Kill More than 50 Civilian as Dissidents Clash with Troops

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