The signs are there that Libya is fast following Somaliaâ€™s route to ruin as the country plunges into a conflict so complex it could take decades to fix.
Social cohesion is fragmenting on a geographic, tribal and religious basis in the midst of a concurrent three dimensional battle - all underpinned by the power and influence of oil which lubricates the funnel down which a previously stable, moderate, conservative society now spirals.
The enormous value of Libyaâ€™s oil lies at the heart of everything that has happened since the revolution. The natural tendencies towards unity, entrepreneurship and hard work, so evident in neighbouring Tunisia, evaporated instantly, as Libyans anticipated great wealth without having to lift a finger.
Battle number one, therefore, has been the battle for political control. The Muslim Brotherhood lost no time in asserting itself and undermining a bedrock of moderate, conservative politics. This led to infighting and the paralysis of government.
Battle number two has been regional conflict and the creeping tit-for-tat power struggles between militias, all sustained by government in the vain hope of controlling them. City vs city; East vs West vs South.
Within this battle is the conflict surrounding the nationâ€™s natural assets, as powerful figures seized their opportunity to take control of state utilities as a means to dictate terms to the government and further their own agendas.
The final battle is the battle for the soul of Libya: Moderates vs extremists.
In three months, security in Benghazi went from professional, overt and reassuring to largely invisible soldiers in balaclavas to prevent identification by local Ansar Sharia extremists.
By March, Ansar Sharia were engaged in a wave of bombings and killings that brought General Hiftar and Operation Dignity into being.
Somalia concerned few until piracy started holding global trade to ransom.
Libyaâ€™s importance is more immediately concerning. Libya is Europeâ€™s neighbour and the gateway in and out of Africa through which people, weapons, drugs and other illicit trade are beginning to pass as untroubled passage can easily be purchased through the anarchy.
It is also the lynchpin in the ever-widening global onslaught of al Qaeda franchises across the Middle East and North Africa. But for Egypt and Libyaâ€™s resilience, Osama Bin Ladenâ€™s disciples will walk freely from Lahore to Bamako, and from Mombasa to Mosul.
In Somalia, an unwavering security presence provided by the African Union, and backed by the international community, established the security scaffolding within which the UN, the EU, UK, Turkey and others led the political roadmap and began rebuilding the political machine and state institutions.
Libya, therefore, needs its oil production taken into trust with all proceeds funnelled directly into governance.
It needs a comprehensive security operation provided by African nations with the Libyan and continental interest at heart. And it needs single-minded, volunteer nations to lead an inclusive state-building and governance operation.
Libya has not yet gone past the point of no return, but it soon will if we do not act now - and act decisively.
Former Army Officer and Whitehall communications officer, the author, Richard Bailey, is a Strategic Communications Consultant who has been working as Communications Advisor to the African Union Mission in Somalia and latterly the Office of the President in Somalia between 2009 and 2013 and to the Government in Libya since November 2013.
[Ynet] Ban on flights to Israel was just another attempt by US administration to force Israel to accept difficult conditions in Gazoo.
Artificial sweet talk in public and stabs in the back behind the scenes â€" that's how we should describe the attitude of US President Barack Obama If you like your coverage you can keep it... 's administration towards us. From now on we can also call it "Obama's wars on Israel."
The first war was in the 2011 Arab Spring, when this American regime tried to portray the events as a sort of marvelous democratic uprising, compared to the obsolete Israeli democracy which is lagging behind. This is the way the Arab uprising was explicitly described by some members of Obama's staff, all Jews of course.
Then came reality and hit Obama in the face, as the Arabs â€" all of them â€" collapsed: Syria died, Iraq died, Libya died, and an Arab democracy remained solely in the American hallucinations.
The second war was Secretary of State John F. I was in Vietnam, you know Kerry Former Senator-for-Life from Massachussetts, self-defined war hero, speaker of French, owner of a lucky hat, conqueror of Cambodia, and current Secretary of State... 's desperate attempt in 2013 to reduce Israel's size to the point of putting it in existential danger. He forced Israel and the ineffectual Mahmoud Abbas ... a graduate of the prestigious unaccredited Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow with a doctorate in Holocaust Denial... into futile but dangerous negotiations, which evoked destructive Islamic urges and deteriorated the security situation both in the Paleostinian Authority and in Israel.
Encouraged by Kerry, the Paleostinians' imagination began going wild: They would receive Jerusalem, the return of the refugees, the Jordan Valley, lands, prisoners â€" and the result was arrogance, and therefore violence, defiance and self-destruction.
Of course those American diplomats rushed to blame Israel for all the world's troubles, at their master's order, but that war failed too. Israel insisted on its right to exist, and not to turn Judea and Samaria into Gazoo.
Where is that Kerry today, the man wanted to hand Judea Samaria over to Arab illusory sovereignty? Why everything that is happening in Gazoo would have happened here, and that would have been the end of Israel. Fortunately, the Gazoo war broke out now, because it illustrates what would have happened if, God forbid, we would have transferred more lands to the Arab terror.
The third war is taking place now, and we must admit that the Obama regime is not giving up: An attempt to force Israel to accept difficult conditions in the Gazoo Strip, including through the outrageous ban on flights to Israel. The ban was issued by the American FAA, a federal administration subject to the US secretary of transportation. As opposed to previous wars, in which the administration warned against an intifada or European boycott â€" it is now attacking Israel directly and openly, and trying to suffocate it.
This administration is closer today to Qatar and the Moslem BrĂĽderbund or to Iran, which encourage terror, than to Israel. This is an astonishing blindness, an abandonment of the West's leadership and a cultural decline at an inconceivable magnitude.
This isn't the first time Kerry is caught smiling at Israel while inciting against it behind the scenes. But not just towards Israel. This is also a betrayal of the moderate axis of the Middle East â€" Egypt, Jordan and Soddy Arabia ...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual hajj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. When the oil runs out the rest of the world is going to kick sand in the Soddy national face... â€" as well as encouraging and rewarding jihadist terror, and a betrayal of all the real American values.
Israel will manage to free itself of this attack too, and the American curse will turn into a blessing also here â€" because the Paleostinian sides are collapsing as it is, and going back to being portrayed as holy warriors in the world.
But before the upcoming Congress elections, every American citizen should know how this American administration treats its only ally in the Middle East â€" and vote accordingly.
[The Washington Institute] On July 23, 2014, Jeffrey White and Ghaith al-Omari addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute, moderated by David Pollock. Pollock is the Institute's Kaufman Fellow and editor of Fikra Forum. White is a defense fellow at the Institute and a former senior defense intelligence officer. Omari is executive director of the American Task Force on Palestine and previously served in the Palestinian Authority government. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.