Article

2013-12-26 India-Pakistan

North Waziristan appears close to full-blown conflict

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Fred 2013-12-26 00:00|| || Front Page|| [7 views ] Top
File under: al-Qaeda in Pakistan

#1 Bet the casualties are to locals and to paramilitary troops rather than to regular Pakistani army troops

Posted by john frum 2013-12-26 09:36|| 2013-12-26 09:36|| Front Page Top

#2 That Idiot standing behind the RPG will hortly go to pair-o-dice.

Posted by Redneck Jim 2013-12-26 18:25|| 2013-12-26 18:25|| Front Page Top

#3 And I'm supposed to care because ....?

Sorry, my give-a-shit meter's broken.

Posted by Barbara 2013-12-26 19:03|| 2013-12-26 19:03|| Front Page Top

#4 And I'm supposed to care because ....?

You don't have to.

But let's run down a scenario.

1. The Paks lose control of North Waziristan.

2. The Islamists gain a base of operations.

3. The objective could then be one or any of the following:

Gradual capture of South Waziristan and the other northwest territories.

Increased attacks within the urban areas of Pakistan with the objective of full-blown guerilla warfare.

Launching platform to retake Afghanistan after the US/NATO leaves.

Longer term:

Possible collapse of the current oligarchic Pakistani government, with replacement by either a more Islamic-sympathetic government, an openly radical Sunni Islamist government, or an Islamic-nationalist government.

Potential loss of control of Pakistani nukes.

Long-term:

Increased security threats to India and the Kashmir region.

Increased influence by China and/or Saudi Arabia/Gulf nations.

Potential radical Islam threat increase to Bangladesh and the SE Asian nations.

Increased/perceived increase threat to Iran, the former (muslim-dominated) Soviets.

And that's in just five minutes of thinking.

Posted by Pappy 2013-12-26 19:35|| 2013-12-26 19:35|| Front Page Top

#5 If/when #1 happens, #1a should be a series of Arclights if the Paks have a lick of common sense. Which I doubt.

Posted by Barbara 2013-12-26 19:42|| 2013-12-26 19:42|| Front Page Top

#6 The problem is that the Paks do not really have the capability. Nor, do I think, the Pak military has the will. They've not been in a full-blown, long-term conflict for decades. What is being classed as "military losses" at this point are poorly-armed, poorly funded and poorly-used Frontier Constabulary. The Pak Army has no experience in either "arc-light" or a protracted campaign in mountainous territory. Indeed, I think a full-blown assault against North Waziristan would likely shatter the Pak military into several groups, among them a radical Islamist faction.

Posted by Pappy 2013-12-26 19:44|| 2013-12-26 19:44|| Front Page Top

#7 the ISI has to be soooo conflicted. One wonders when their Great Games dreams will consume them with fire

Posted by Frank G 2013-12-26 19:47|| 2013-12-26 19:47|| Front Page Top

#8 Pappy, I think the route of supporting "moderate" has been traveled---more than once, too.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2013-12-26 21:21|| 2013-12-26 21:21|| Front Page Top

#9 I never said anything about supporting "moderate". What I did was list a set of potential scenarios and outcomes. It's what I was trained to do.

I don't do recommendations.

Posted by Pappy 2013-12-26 22:16|| 2013-12-26 22:16|| Front Page Top

23:39 JosephMendiola
23:37 trailing wife
22:50 Uncle Phester
22:16 Pappy
21:45 Thing From Snowy Mountain
21:36 JosephMendiola
21:28 Anon1
21:21 g(r)omgoru
20:35 Frank G
20:23 Pappy
19:47 Frank G
19:44 Pappy
19:42 Barbara
19:35 Pappy
19:09 Pappy
19:03 Barbara
18:25 Redneck Jim
18:12 Anon1
18:03 Anon1
17:53 tu3031
17:49 Redneck Jim
17:43 Rambler in Virginia
17:35 JohnQC
17:10 JohnQC