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2008-07-12 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

The Fleet Positions Itself For War Part II

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Posted by 3dc 2008-07-12 01:06|| || Front Page|| [6 views ] Top

#1 ION NOSI > AIR FORCE MAGZ > US NAVY- PACIFIC CHOKE POINT [Straits of Malaccas]. USN now needs to keep an eye on same.

Lest we fergit, PHILIPPINES MIL CHIEF: ARMY CANNOT PROTECT/DEFEND THE PHILIPPINES; + Manila is antipating increases in Islamist and aligned violence and terror.

Getting closer to GUAM-CNMI-MICRONESIA.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-07-12 02:14|| 2008-07-12 02:14|| Front Page Top

#2 If everyone, presumably to include Iran, knows the strike is coming does Iran target Israel pre-emptively rather than wait and hope it's only their nuclear facilities that are destroyed?

Posted by AzCat 2008-07-12 13:04|| 2008-07-12 13:04|| Front Page Top

#3 Iran targets Israel pre-emptively with what? If Iran attacks Israel it will cease to exist and the MM know it. They cannot attack Israel until they have nukes, and even then it would be a nation scale suicide bomber.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-07-12 13:09|| 2008-07-12 13:09|| Front Page Top

#4 Spoken like a rational western thinker NS. How certain are you that the MMs and/or Ahmadinewhackjob are rational players rather than religious zealots? If they're the latter do you suppose that might have some impact on their ability to plan effectively and recognize the likely consequences of their actions?

Posted by AzCat 2008-07-12 13:35|| 2008-07-12 13:35|| Front Page Top

#5 Quite and no. From the MMs point of view I am irrational secular zealot infidel instead of a rational tool of Allah. It is as much a mistake to assume your enemy is less rational than you as to assume that they, or you, will analyze the situation correctly.

The Iranian strategy of attacking Israel with it's Hezbollah proxy was well conceived and executed. Why would Iran choose to confront Israel directly when it has no means to do so in an effective manner? That is one among many reasons why they are developing nukes.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-07-12 14:49|| 2008-07-12 14:49|| Front Page Top

#6 I agree with Nimble. Persians were playing chess a very long time ago, and typically they intentionally do not speak with one voice, so part is belligerent, part is diplomatic, and part are off on some tangent.

Everything would be far easier if we could arrange for them to make an ineffectual attack when we are ready, and they are not, and against a strong part of our prepared defenses. Hopefully such an attack, if we could properly orchestrate it, would involve antagonizing neutral powers as well.

Say if one of their missile launch sites fired a series of missiles at Tel Aviv, Riyadh, Istanbul, Paris, Cairo, Baghdad, and the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier group. Without success, natch.

Unfortunate that they do not as yet have the range to target Moscow, as that would be the yummy iced topping on that cake. And their tap dance to explain that they didn't order those missiles to be fired would make funniest home videos.

Posted by Anonymoose 2008-07-12 15:29|| 2008-07-12 15:29|| Front Page Top

#7 I wish I was as optimistic as you guys that they're just a bunch of cynical politicians squawking loudly in order to secure the maximum concessions from the West.

NS - point well taken as to the frame of reference being a necessity when considering the rationality of the actions of others, I think that's more-or-less inherent in the use of a term like 'rational' though. You asked why Iran would attack Israel when they lack an effective means to do so which question implicitly assumes the same sort of western rationality you chastised me for incorporating into my earlier statement.

When considering what, if anything, Ahmadeniwhackjob might actually do I think it's important to keep the apparent tenants of his faith in mind. It doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling to know that both he and senior members of the Iranian government are part of a doomsday cult so extreme that was banned following the Islamic Revolution.

To revisit the question of why Iran might launch the attack: doomsday cultists may be in control of a large enough chunk of Iran's military to carry out such an attack. If they feel that their tenuous grip on power is threatened they might view this as their last moment to act. Given Ahmadeniwhackjob's reported beliefs he might accept the complete destruction of Iran and could even see it as a positive if he views that sort of war & chaos as the type most likely to bring back the 12th Imam. Insane by our standards, possibly quite rational by his.

I suppose it all depends on whether a significant number of their missiles can reach Israel; what sorts of goodies they have available to load them with; and whose finger is on the button. Color me not optimistic.

Posted by AzCat 2008-07-12 18:54|| 2008-07-12 18:54|| Front Page Top

#8 There's little to be optimistic about in this persian mess, but Moose's analysis seems most likely. I wonder if any missiles will be involved at all - more likely more and coordinated deadly proxy attacks. That said, I still wonder if they're so far out on the limb that some other actor will pull something which leaves them the obvious culprit - an unclaimed terror action somewhere peripheral - an embassy, military base outside the ME, etc..

Many forces seem primed for such action, and the diplomatic test will be the extent to which it can trigger internal persian civil war.

While the MSM is absurdly focussed on Iraq, Iran and Israel - and to some extent the "surge", I wonder the extent to which we've created and spread proxies through the region, even sub-proxies. We obviously have deals in newer conditions with India, the Kurds, Misc. Stans, etc., and there's very little coverage of these as little as happened.

Iran is surrounded, they know it, they know there's little they can do about it as long as the MMs are in charge, the pressure is high, and an obscure pinprick may burst it all.

Let's hope it implodes rather than explodes.

Posted by Pearl Jeager2939 2008-07-12 22:20|| 2008-07-12 22:20|| Front Page Top

23:42 JDB
23:37 crosspatch
23:26 Old Patriot
23:22 OldSpook
23:09 rammer
23:05 crosspatch
22:45 Frank G
22:42 SteveS
22:33 Iblis
22:22 Holly B.
22:20 Pearl Jeager2939
22:20 OldSpook
22:14 Jan from work
22:08 RD
22:08 OldSpook
21:57 OldSpook
21:51 Anonymoose
21:50 bigjim-ky
21:49 Besoeker
21:43 Muggsy Cleagum6806
21:33 Nimble Spemble
21:31 Anonymoose
21:30 Nimble Spemble
21:27 OldSpook