Article

2004-09-08 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Dan Darling 2004-09-08 12:52:14 AM|| || Front Page|| [9 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 More from the NY Slimes. I don't imagine anyone thought that the al-Sadr thugs would simply become common citizens. But it appears they are no longer hiding at the Shrine of Imam Ali. Iraq is not Lebanon, and no one expects al-Sadr to form a political party.

Posted by Anonymous6339 2004-09-08 1:24:50 AM|| 2004-09-08 1:24:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Many good points - but I take issue with this idea: While it may be that "Hezbollah occupies a prominent position in the terrorist universe because it found a unique way of combining political restraint with militancy."

It is IMHO a real stretch to think that Mookie Sadr has a drop of political restraint in his uneducated little body. The guy is just a thug.

While I agree with the overall premise of this article - I think there is a good bit of wishful thinking in this, that Sadr has more influence to create a quagmire than he really possesses. Why else would this article find itself printed in the NYT?

And secondly, I take issue with the idea that it was some sort of long term goal by Iran to use Sadr as a means to the political bargaining table. I think Iran mistakenly thought that they could use Sadr to start a Shia civil war. Having failed, Iran (and the NYT) is hoping that they can recreate a Hezbollah. Maybe - but it's unlikely that Sadr has what it takes to pull it off.

Again, my point is NOT to dispute this idea that Iran will attempt to recreate the Mahdi Army into Hezbollah - but I detect a strong whiff of hoping for a "quagmire" i, what has so far been little more than the unsuccessful hostage taking of the Najaf mosque.

Posted by B 2004-09-08 1:29:46 AM|| 2004-09-08 1:29:46 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 hey anon - you beat me to the punch!

Posted by B 2004-09-08 1:30:23 AM|| 2004-09-08 1:30:23 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 How much more likely is it, then, that elements of the Russian military or the KGB, acting in secret and on their own authority, could gain control of one or more nuclear weapons and use them to avenge the Beslen atrocity?

Equally likely is rogue FSB and mafiya elements-- slim difference in the FSU-- gaining control of nukes and slipping them for cash to members of the Dr Khan network. Which means they sooner or later wind up in the hands of the mullahs or AQ or Hezbollah.

If Russia fails, we fail. Putin's speech made me think of 1905: finally, an admission of the rot within the Russian state and the desperate need to reverse its criminalization, demoralization, and enfeeblement. Pakistan north.

Posted by lex 2004-09-08 1:53:58 AM|| 2004-09-08 1:53:58 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Difference this time is that the US will not bail out after terr bombing like we did in Lebanon - one of Reagan's few mistakes.

Iran thinks it can replay the same script.

Well, if Kerry gets elected, I guess they can.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-08 3:20:06 AM|| 2004-09-08 3:20:06 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 "I had a dream!"

President Bush, the day before election day, has Colin Powell send a message to Syria, Iran and Lebanon.

It basically sez: "Pay close attention to election day returns. As it becomes obvious President Bush will have a second term, and with every state reporting in, U.S. and coalition troops will be moving closer to your borders, B-1 and B-2 bombers will approach your airspace and prepositioned SF personnel will close on key terrorist related locations.You have until the polls close and the final tally is in, to remove all terrorists, their offices and training bases from your country. To dismantle any facility capable of producing WMD. If this is not done, the very next morning, you will receive the full might of our combined armed forces. And your world will never be the same. Have a nice day!"

Posted by RN 2004-09-08 8:33:13 AM|| 2004-09-08 8:33:13 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 Well, if Kerry gets elected, I guess they can.

With a Kerry presidency, one good boom against our forces should do it.

Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2004-09-08 10:03:25 AM|| 2004-09-08 10:03:25 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 RN, why would the message be any different if Bush loses the election? As a lame duck, he doesn't have to keep opponents back home happy, and Kerry would have to deal with the long term consequences. Think of it as the Bush version of stealing all the "w" keys from the typewriters ;-)

Oh yes, and setting himself up for a win against Hillary Clinton in 2008.

Posted by trailing wife 2004-09-08 12:37:14 PM|| 2004-09-08 12:37:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Vvvvvvverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyy Interesting Point. Well done!

Posted by RN 2004-09-08 12:39:30 PM|| 2004-09-08 12:39:30 PM|| Front Page Top

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