Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.
Posted by Fred 2013-12-26 00:00||
Front Page|| [363 views ]
File under: al-Qaeda in Pakistan
#1 Bet the casualties are to locals and to paramilitary troops rather than to regular Pakistani army troops
Posted by john frum 2013-12-26 09:36||
#2 That Idiot standing behind the RPG will hortly go to pair-o-dice.
Posted by Redneck Jim 2013-12-26 18:25||
#3 And I'm supposed to care because ....?
Sorry, my give-a-shit meter's broken.
Posted by Barbara 2013-12-26 19:03||
#4 And I'm supposed to care because ....?
You don't have to.
But let's run down a scenario.
1. The Paks lose control of North Waziristan.
2. The Islamists gain a base of operations.
3. The objective could then be one or any of the following:
Gradual capture of South Waziristan and the other northwest territories.
Increased attacks within the urban areas of Pakistan with the objective of full-blown guerilla warfare.
Launching platform to retake Afghanistan after the US/NATO leaves.
Possible collapse of the current oligarchic Pakistani government, with replacement by either a more Islamic-sympathetic government, an openly radical Sunni Islamist government, or an Islamic-nationalist government.
Potential loss of control of Pakistani nukes.
Increased security threats to India and the Kashmir region.
Increased influence by China and/or Saudi Arabia/Gulf nations.
Potential radical Islam threat increase to Bangladesh and the SE Asian nations.
Increased/perceived increase threat to Iran, the former (muslim-dominated) Soviets.
And that's in just five minutes of thinking.
Posted by Pappy 2013-12-26 19:35||
#5 If/when #1 happens, #1a should be a series of Arclights if the Paks have a lick of common sense. Which I doubt.
Posted by Barbara 2013-12-26 19:42||
#6 The problem is that the Paks do not really have the capability. Nor, do I think, the Pak military has the will. They've not been in a full-blown, long-term conflict for decades. What is being classed as "military losses" at this point are poorly-armed, poorly funded and poorly-used Frontier Constabulary. The Pak Army has no experience in either "arc-light" or a protracted campaign in mountainous territory. Indeed, I think a full-blown assault against North Waziristan would likely shatter the Pak military into several groups, among them a radical Islamist faction.
Posted by Pappy 2013-12-26 19:44||
#7 the ISI has to be soooo conflicted. One wonders when their Great Games dreams will consume them with fire
Posted by Frank G 2013-12-26 19:47||
#8 Pappy, I think the route of supporting "moderate" has been traveled---more than once, too.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2013-12-26 21:21||
#9 I never said anything about supporting "moderate". What I did was list a set of potential scenarios and outcomes. It's what I was trained to do.
I don't do recommendations.
Posted by Pappy 2013-12-26 22:16||