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2006-08-29 Home Front: WoT
Iran Re-Mapped By (US) Armed Forces Journal
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Posted by Snease Shaiting3550 2006-08-29 00:00|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 So when Mexicans are the majority in California Mexico can annex it?
Posted by Penguin 2006-08-29 00:26||   2006-08-29 00:26|| Front Page Top

#2 I partially agree, but you have to argue that might, not fairness, makes right. Kurdistan has the might to sustain a greater Kurdistan, but Baluchistan is too backward to become an independant state.

It is also wealthy in resources vital to Pakistan, which would be loathe to let it go, along with its deep water port.

Syria could become a Sunni nation, as the vast majority of its people are Sunni. And I have several times outlined the same partitioning of Iran here, though I added the Azeri, rejoining with Azerbaijan, not through any great strength of their own, but enforced by the US, to deny Iran the resources to rebuild its nuclear power.

And Afghanistan is perversely, geographically united in such a way that dividing it would be next to impossible. It's different peoples are stuck with each other.
Posted by Anonymoose 2006-08-29 00:28||   2006-08-29 00:28|| Front Page Top

#3 Itsa plan. Few minor adjustments, though, IMHO...

West Bank and southern Lebanon below Litani to Israel. Gaza -- big wall around it as Egyptians don't want it... probably even if they were paid. Oh, yea, transfer them Paleos from Judea and Samaria to the current Paleostinian state--Jordan.

Kurdistan needs an access to Mediterranian--a strip along the current northern Syrian border would do. The can build a port, I believe, even with 10 km territory on the seashore.

Azeris need to cede Nagorno-Kharabakh and the territory that separates Nagorno-Kharabakh from Armenia on the west. There may be some territory ceded by Turks, north of Kurdistan boundary, to Armenia as a redress for genocide at the beginning of the 20th century. Access to black Sea would be desirable.

I am sure there may be some more bugs to iron out.

Oh, yea, the most important thing... At the time when this would be taking place, Islam needs to be neutered, or better yet, in a dustbin of history.
Posted by twobyfour 2006-08-29 00:57||   2006-08-29 00:57|| Front Page Top

#4 Here's the actual AFJ article with the map in question.

I note that the Shia state, as described in the "After" map, would "own" what looks to be all of the Saudi oil, half of the Iraqi oil, and a good portion of the Iranian oil...

That would be one rich bitch state, Ralphie. Shia.

I can certainly see why the Sunnis are less than thrilled with this.

The only thing that I give a shit about is the Kurds. Give them a Med port, too. The rest, the Arabs and Persians, can pound sand AFAIC.
Posted by Threatch Unons6270 2006-08-29 01:19||   2006-08-29 01:19|| Front Page Top

#5 BTW, that Shia state would be both Persian and Arab... I doubt it would hold together for more than 5 minutes.
Posted by Threatch Unons6270 2006-08-29 01:24||   2006-08-29 01:24|| Front Page Top

#6 This concept has one singular and gigantic appeal. By reconsolidating these individual ethnic groups into their historically respective homelands, they are now congregated in such a way that whomever decides to unleash another significant terrorist attack on America is handily clustered up in preparation for nuclear extermination. Go ahead, make my day.
Posted by Zenster 2006-08-29 01:44||   2006-08-29 01:44|| Front Page Top

#7 Sorry but Peters is way out of bounds here. Considering this hare-brained pie-in-the-sky scheme, he wants us to "think the unthinkable". I have a counter proposal that's just as absurd and idealistic: how about the civilized world gets together and demand that some people give up tribalism and try a little pluralism, even in Central Asia and the Middle East - especially in Central Asia and the Middle East. Who said that ethnic cleansing works?! This plan is nothing more than a blueprint for perpetual war. Of course more war is inevitable in the region and the borders will not stay as they are. But at some point we gotta look/hope/pray for the emergence of a state or several ones, where Sunnis can live with Shias, Palis with Hashemites, Balochis, Kurds, Azeris ad infinitum, are not all looking for their own special little mini-state, like the Balkans.
Posted by Monsieur Moonbat 2006-08-29 02:34||   2006-08-29 02:34|| Front Page Top

#8 “Iran, a state with madcap boundaries, would lose a great deal of territory to Unified Azerbaijan, Free Kurdistan, the Arab Shia State and Free Balochistan

Someone has been reading Rantburg. The Middle East is a collection of Empires, partially disintegrated empires and countries made up by colonial administrators. The current states and their borders are THE main impediment to democracy, cos large numbers give a free choice would succeed from the state they are currerntly a part of. It's no coincidence that Kurdistan has a thriving civil society and a functioning democracy.

And MM, whilst it hasn't played out fully in the Balkans. The results are very promising. You may argue that the result is not worth the process to get there, but I would respond with, what's your alternative (And BTW, the notion we can maintain whatever staus quo exists today for ever is absurd).
Posted by phil_b 2006-08-29 03:04||   2006-08-29 03:04|| Front Page Top

#9 BTW, that Shia state would be both Persian and Arab

No it wouldn't (excepting recent non-Arab immigrants). Khuzestan (formerly known as Arabistan) is/was overwhelmingly Shia Arab.

And I would also return the north shore of the Straits of Hormuz back to Oman. It used to be in its sphere of influence.
Posted by phil_b 2006-08-29 06:27||   2006-08-29 06:27|| Front Page Top

#10 phil_b - No? Then we're not looking at the same map (linked in my #4). That horseshoe Shia state Peters describes wraps around the Gulf of Rumsfeld from Bandar Abbas to the Qatari border - that's 50% Persian and 50% Saudi Arab - at least in terms of territory. I don't think we're talking about the same "Shia state".
Posted by Threatch Unons6270 2006-08-29 06:58||   2006-08-29 06:58|| Front Page Top

#11 Who said that ethnic cleansing works?!

It worked for the Kosovars and the U. S.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-08-29 07:04||   2006-08-29 07:04|| Front Page Top

#12 phil_b - Are you saying the Iranian half of the horseshoe is (mainly) populated by Arabs?

This map agrees with you down around Bandar Abbas, but not the middle section that includes Bushehr.

I misspoke above, Peters' map does not include that Arab area around Bandar Abbas - my mistake. Sure looks to be Persion, in the main, on that side of the Gulf, however. So my question about Peters' Shia state being a mix of Persians and Arabs stands, as far as I can see.
Posted by Threatch Unons6270 2006-08-29 07:12||   2006-08-29 07:12|| Front Page Top

#13 The only thing that I give a shit about is the Kurds. Give them a Med port, too
That would be Latakia, in Syrian Kurdistan.
Posted by 6 2006-08-29 07:30||   2006-08-29 07:30|| Front Page Top

#14 What's important is not the details, but that the Middle East is informally on notice that Bush's refusal, post-9/11, to unthinkingly support their status quo is already having effects far beyond the conquests of Afghanistan and Iraq and the establishment of more or less successful democracies in their midst, whereby the inchoate longings of their peoples can find focus. Now they need to worry that their minority populations are going to see this plan as a possible reality toward which they can take action even before the US sends troops into the various battles. Mr. Peters is a smart man, although I find his conclusions less useful than I did when I first discovered his writings* , but I see this a nice bit of preparing the ground for battle, on the assumption that the senior levels of the Armed Forces are aware the article was accepted for publication.

*That bit about Israel, for instance, demonstrates a distressing lack of understanding of the Muslim mindset with regard to what they see as dhimmis who refuse to accept their place. The only way the Middle East will accept Israel is when she defeats them all conclusively... and doesn't give back anything she's won. "Land for peace" buys Israel neither peace nor security.
Posted by trailing wife 2006-08-29 07:54||   2006-08-29 07:54|| Front Page Top

#15 He calls Iraq an unnatural state and calls for a greater Kurdish state, which will include Turkish, Syrian and Iranian Kurds. A Free Kurdistan, stretching from Diyarbakir through Tabriz, would be the most pro-Western state between Bulgaria and Japan, he adds. Ralph Peters.

Have to agree with Peters to a point. Iraq when compared to the former Yugoslavia had a great deal in common, desperate ethnic groups all held together by ruthless dictators, for a time anyway. What I don't agree with is the concept of the U.S. fixing it. Stay the phuech out, let them square the corners to suite themselves. Our blood and national treasure is too precious for those heathen goat bonkers.
Posted by Besoeker 2006-08-29 08:02||   2006-08-29 08:02|| Front Page Top

#16 Stay the phuech out, let them square the corners to suite themselves. Our blood and national treasure is too precious for those heathen goat bonkers.

Except that they always seem to phuech it up when they square the corners and it ends up costing us more in the long run. This is an, if you want it done right, do it yourself situation.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-08-29 08:35||   2006-08-29 08:35|| Front Page Top

#17 Could not agree with you more NS. The challenge remains, there really is no shortage of global phuech-ups and none predicted for the future. As an illustration, I gave up on attempting to enforce my own modest standards of highway motoring protocal on the general public long ago. There simply isn't enuf time to train them all, and there are far to many to shoot! I just laugh and iggy the poor bastards, remain in my lane and hope and pray for the best.
Posted by Besoeker 2006-08-29 08:44||   2006-08-29 08:44|| Front Page Top

#18 Of note is the fact that most Persian Gulf oil fields - including the Ghawar field (world's largest) - are in Arab-Shiite majority areas. Few are in Persian areas, thus, the ethnic card could be played by Iran's enemies. The following links reveal known oil pools around the Gulf (use of "Arabian Gulf" term suggests GCC consultant status of the map maker), but doesn't reflect the fact that only 10% of Iraq has been surveyed for oil. Also, Kurdistan is off map but holds the deepest (easiest to extract) pools in the world. My AOL IP doesn't handle html-tags well, so apologies if you have to cut-and-paste:

http://web.inetba.com/gregcroftinc/images/area1map_sm.jpg

http://web.inetba.com/gregcroftinc/images/area2map_sm.jpg

http://web.inetba.com/gregcroftinc/images/area3map_sm.jpg

http://web.inetba.com/gregcroftinc/images/area4map_sm.jpg
Posted by Snease Shaiting3550 2006-08-29 08:46||   2006-08-29 08:46|| Front Page Top

#19 That's why we need to start production of the enhanced radiation weapon.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-08-29 08:51||   2006-08-29 08:51|| Front Page Top

#20 I don't see why they would be upset over the western powers planning or redrawing their borders. Who do they think did it last time?
Posted by mcsegeek1 2006-08-29 08:55||   2006-08-29 08:55|| Front Page Top

#21 The problem I have with this whole idea is that it's just Sykes-Picot / Churchill, version 2 (or 3, or 4) revisited. Instead of venal French and English politicans dividing up the Middle East to suit their interests, we'd have venal American politicans dividing up the Middle East to suit ours. Nice idea in theory but it's not going to work.

First off, the ethnicity maps aren't neatly drawn like Mr. Peters thinks. There's a lot of mixing. Who gets Baghdad? What happens to the Alawites and the Druze? You can give the Kurds access to the Med but someone's going to be shorted, and those folks are going to be 'plodingly unhappy.

And second, it says nothing about how these new states would be governed. They're not going to be liberal, secular democracies. And to the extent you have ethnic groups lumped into their own territories, guided by a Religion of Pieces™, and susceptible to the next strong-man who comes along, you have trouble.

The only way to fix the problem is to let the people there sort it out. No one complains about the dissolution of Czechoslovakia -- the Czechs and the Slovaks managed to turn one country into two without killing anyone. That's the model. Good luck, Jim.
Posted by Steve White">Steve White  2006-08-29 09:53||   2006-08-29 09:53|| Front Page Top

#22 The only way to fix the problem is to let the people there sort it out. No one complains about the dissolution of Czechoslovakia -- the Czechs and the Slovaks managed to turn one country into two without killing anyone. That's the model. Good luck, Jim. Posted by: Steve White 2006-08-29 09:53

Very astute. Would that Washington would listen.
Posted by Besoeker 2006-08-29 09:59||   2006-08-29 09:59|| Front Page Top

#23 Wait a minute - what are these "Plains of Glass" in the north?...
Posted by mojo">mojo  2006-08-29 10:19||   2006-08-29 10:19|| Front Page Top

#24 The only way to fix the problem is to let the people there sort it out.

What's been preventing that for the last 50 years?

First off, the ethnicity maps aren't neatly drawn like Mr. Peters thinks. There's a lot of mixing.

That's what ethnic cleansing is for. Use some of the oil money to make payments to the displaced for the first couple of years, if necessary.

And second, it says nothing about how these new states would be governed. They're not going to be liberal, secular democracies.

But liberal (for the ME) democracies (I prefer republics) is where we'd like to end up. Is it easier to get there from a homogenous polity or one where ethnic divisions preclude the emergence of more policy oriented parties?

It would be a good idea to make it "their" responsibility, but who are "they" and are they as or more likely to be venal toward the average Middle Easterner as the US? We're the Hegemon. We can't escape the responsibility for what happens regardless of how superficially we are involved in it. It's our watch.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-08-29 11:11||   2006-08-29 11:11|| Front Page Top

#25 No one complains about the dissolution of Czechoslovakia -- the Czechs and the Slovaks managed to turn one country into two without killing anyone

No credit whatsoever goes to the Slovaks, whose politicians were angling for more aid and economic concessions from Prague. Rather, it was Prime Minister Vaclav Havel who announced immediate separation rather than a civil war to impose unity. Since then, the Czech Republic has quietly gone from success to success, no longer drained by the needs of backward Slovakia.
Posted by trailing wife 2006-08-29 12:23||   2006-08-29 12:23|| Front Page Top

#26 First priority needs to be the Gulf of Rumsfeld
World Energy Park.
Posted by Grunter 2006-08-29 13:05||   2006-08-29 13:05|| Front Page Top

#27 Gawd, what comic relief. The beauty of this coming out is the knotting of the turbans far and wide. If the cartoons got them going, what will this do ? Har, har.
Posted by SOP35/Rat 2006-08-29 13:46||   2006-08-29 13:46|| Front Page Top

#28 Penguin "#1 So when Mexicans are the majority in California Mexico can annex it? "

To answer your question YES that is exactley how the US got Texas. It was Mexico allowing for reasons of greed (extra taxes) to many imigrants from the US to quickly without demanding they become Mexicans. The result was short term gain for Mexico but in the end they lost the territory to a minority that saw themselves not as part of Mexico becuase they were not forced to merge.
Posted by C-Low 2006-08-29 13:57||   2006-08-29 13:57|| Front Page Top

#29 Too bad no Arabic speakers post here. The Qatar link suggests that the Peters' article - which is nothing more than opinion from a man who has written of Israel's "defeat" in the intervention - has entered the Arab rumor mill. They would be sufficiently stupid to treat Peter's comments as the US government position.

As for Mexican revanche politics, I saw t-shirts being sold in San Antonio ("San Antone" to some white people) that read: "Put The J Back In Texas." Lettring was in Mexican' Orange-White-Green. Coma mierda, Pepe!
Posted by Snease Shaiting3550 2006-08-29 14:58||   2006-08-29 14:58|| Front Page Top

#30 Woodrow Wilson had a similar idea for Europe after WWI along linguistic lines. Clemenceau pretty much killed that with the comment "Must every little language have it's own country?"
Posted by Glosing Spaing1167 2006-08-29 15:18||   2006-08-29 15:18|| Front Page Top

#31 Migration, even forced migration, is one thing. Ethnic cleansing, in its common usage, is a crime against humanity. Those who suggest it to be a useful problem solving tool are waaaaay off base. And not just in the sense of violently purging minority populations.

If there is to be any hope for these third world hellholes coming on line as global participants, all of them must learn to exist with pluralistic societies. At some point in the future, people of all cultures will be living anywhere and everywhere on the face of this earth.

Allowing for the use of ethnic cleansing both forestalls the eventuality of globalization and turns a blind eye to genocide. Neither of which are desirable in the least.
Posted by Zenster 2006-08-29 15:28||   2006-08-29 15:28|| Front Page Top

#32 There's been a need to "re-map" Irani for a long time.
Posted by JohnQC 2006-08-29 15:49||   2006-08-29 15:49|| Front Page Top

#33 tw and Snease - it's very unlikely that a report in AFJ would be any reflection of the attitudes at the top of the Pentagon. The Times Journals are civilian publications owned by Gannett. Most of their reporters are civilians,.most with no military experience. Their reporting reflects the normal civilian slant.
Posted by 2b 2006-08-29 16:46||   2006-08-29 16:46|| Front Page Top

#34 Zenster:
My guess is that what the author means by “ethnic cleansing” has very little to do with Holocaust style genocide and everything to do with the sort of population exchanges that Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria engineered after WWI. If done properly these can be quiet successful, actually preventing the sort of fratricidal bloodshed we have seen in Yugoslavia, Lebanon, Africa, and elsewhere. For an informative article on the subject link here.

Hey, is it my imagination or did The Peninsula take the map down?
Posted by Secret Master 2006-08-29 17:22||   2006-08-29 17:22|| Front Page Top

#35 Thank you, SM. Extermination and genocide do not result in displaced persons, ethnic cleansing does.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-08-29 17:28||   2006-08-29 17:28|| Front Page Top

#36 #26 First priority needs to be the Gulf of Rumsfeld World Energy Park.
Posted by Grunter 2006-08-29 13:05|| Front Page|| ||Comments Top

Rumsfeld Oil & Gas.
"You can trust your car, to the man who wears the Star boots, the big Texas cowboy boots."

Posted by Besoeker 2006-08-29 17:35||   2006-08-29 17:35|| Front Page Top

#37 Secret Master, Nimble Spemble, thank you for clarifying. This is why I mentioned "forced migration" in the opening caveat of my previous post. "Ethnic Cleansing", as recently seen in the Balkans, was nothing but genocide, a repeat of which is entirely unnecessary.
Posted by Zenster 2006-08-29 20:55||   2006-08-29 20:55|| Front Page Top

#38 the Gulf of Rumsfeld

I love that name! Can't wait to see it actually on the globe.
Posted by SteveS 2006-08-29 20:59||   2006-08-29 20:59|| Front Page Top

23:58 Zenster
23:55 Phil
23:55 Thoth
23:54 JosephMendiola
23:52 Zenster
23:49 Zenster
23:46 Thoth
23:46 Phil
23:46 JosephMendiola
23:46 anonymous2u
23:45 Phil
23:44 Thoth
23:43 JosephMendiola
23:42 RD
23:39 Thoth
23:38 Phil
23:34 ed
23:34 Thoth
23:30 Thoth
23:30 Zenster
23:29 john
23:29 ed
23:24 Zenster
23:18 ed









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