What happened to global warming? I'd say folks are cooling to the idea.
This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.
But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.
And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise. But, what about water vapor? Oh, you don't want us to know about that. OK. As long as you are explicit about that.
So what on Earth is going on?
Climate change sceptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man's influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming. They argue that there are natural cycles, over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this? The sun, perhaps?
During the last few decades of the 20th Century, our planet did warm quickly. Incontrovertible proof. If you are the kind prone to drinking coolaid.
Sceptics argue that the warming we observed was down to the energy from the Sun increasing. After all 98% of the Earth's warmth comes from the Sun. And the rest comes from a liberal dose of hot air.
But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences.
The scientists' main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature. You need to look back further than 30-40 years, I'm afraid. GW activists have claimed this "phenomenon" has been going on for longer than that.
And the results were clear. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). That's a pretty broad statement there, bonehead. How about the earth relation to the sun?
But one solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting, disagrees. He claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely responsible for what happens to global temperatures. He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the international scientific community at a conference in London at the end of the month.
If proved correct, this could revolutionise the whole subject.
What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth's great heat stores.
According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated. The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).
For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too. But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down.
These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years. You mean more like sixty, I presume.
So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles.
Professor Easterbrook says: "The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling." Omygod, you mean there could be catastrophic, uncontrolled global cooling? Head for the hills!
So what does it all mean? Climate change sceptics argue that this is evidence that they have been right all along. They say there are so many other natural causes for warming and cooling, that even if man is warming the planet, it is a small part compared with nature.
But those scientists who are equally passionate about man's influence on global warming argue that their science is solid.
The UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into its climate models, and that they are nothing new. In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known factors that influence global temperatures - all of which are accounted for by its models.
In addition, say Met Office scientists, temperatures have never increased in a straight line, and there will always be periods of slower warming, or even temporary cooling. What is crucial, they say, is the long-term trend in global temperatures providing an excuse for more grant money. And that, according to the Met office data, is clearly up. Yeah, since the 1400's. Long before they had water vapor.
To confuse the issue even further, last month Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years. Professor Latif is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University in Germany and is one of the world's top climate modellers.
But he makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming force of man-made global warming reasserts itself.
So what can we expect in the next few years? A creative predation on apprehension in order to develop research grants to bridge to the next warming cycle?
Both sides have very different forecasts. The Met Office says that warming is set to resume quickly and strongly. It predicts that from 2010 to 2015 at least half the years will be hotter than the current hottest year on record (1998).
Sceptics disagree. They insist it is unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of 1998 until 2030 at the earliest. It is possible, they say, that because of ocean and solar cycles a period of global cooling is more likely.
One thing is for sure. It seems the debate about what is causing global warming is far from over. Indeed some would say it is hotting up. Others would say it is heating up. But this is the BBC, and the talk funny. ;-)
#1
During the last few decades of the 20th Century, our planet did warm quickly.
I think it didn't. The apparent warming resulted from smoke and pollutant reductions from clean air acts and the collapse of the Soviet Union increasing minimum temperatures due to increased early morning sunlight reaching the surface.
BTW, continous and timed based temperature measurements support this interpretation.
#2
How much of the apparent heating is due to interesting placement of ground-based sensors? How does ground-based data compare to satellite data? How far back is the instrument-produced data comparable, before the instruments were less accurate than current? The cavemen weren't using mercury thermometers, after all, nor did Christopher Columbus. In other words, how much of the change versus historical trends is an artifact of more accurate measurement and instrument placement?
And yes, water vapour. Let's lay plastic wrap over the oceans and the larger lakes to prevent the evaporation that's been causing such trouble. That way we won't have to worry about increased snowfall leading to growing glaciers that would crowd us off the planet on the cooling side, as well. Win-win!
#3
But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences.
The research conducted by our intelligence community came up with a NIE that said Iran wasn't working towards the Bomb(tm). How can experts be wrong? /rhet question
#5
The proponents of the agenda driven efforts at both the scientific and political level should be noted, and once the scheme collapses, they should be forced to endure an albatross about their individual necks for the remainder of their respective careers.
Perhaps the way to do this is to add an abbreviation to their name in the future, such as "MMGWA" (advocate).
This can be indicative of several things. That they reached faulty conclusions based on presumption instead of method, often out of their field; that they oppressed other scientists in support of a politically-driven agenda; and that they were less concerned with good science than funding for bad science.
Most of all it implies that they are either incompetent, irresponsible, or both.
#9
I don't know what happened to "global warming". All I know is that we got our first snow yesterday here in corn country. It didn't last long, true, but today it's only 35 at 11 am. Can't wait for winter.....bet it will be another unholy one like last year was.
#11
No warming up here on the Canuckistan prairies. We've got lots of snow on the ground and my tired old bones are telling me that it's here to stay. . . . . . about three weeks early this year.
This year's effort has produced the heaviest snowfall in Winnipeg at this time of year since 1872. Time to get the snowshoes out.
Actually, CS, the whole thing is a total misunderstanding due to a typo many years ago, and now the usual suspects are so invested in the myth they won't can't back down.
It's really supposed to be "Gerbil Worming." :-D
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut ||
10/11/2009 13:22 Comments ||
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#13
Barbara: I am always careful to call him Paul "R." Ehrlich, butterfly expert, so as to never, ever confuse him with that truly great man of science, Dr. Paul Ehrlich.
For me, confusing the two is almost painful, like confusing Trofim Lysenko with Charles Darwin.
Darwin, I might add, who at extreme old age, came out of retirement to present the highest award for science at the time to Dr. Paul Ehrlich, for developing the first effective treatment for syphilis, which at the time was ravaging much of the world, causing blindness, insanity and death.
The trial of 1971 war criminals is all set to run into further delay as Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman murder case has already taken over high profile legal proceedings.
A top policymaker seeking anonymity told The Daily Star yesterday that the government wants to defer the trial of war criminals, as it now concentrates on Bangabandhu murder case, and the security of the judges concerned and their family members.
He said although the government has provided sufficient security to them, any untoward incident might occur over this "sensitive" case. The persons involved in the killings of Bangabandhu and his family members are still getting political support, he added.
The policymaker however hoped that the process of trying war criminals would start before December.
Earlier, the leaders of Ekattorer Ghatak Dalal Nirmul Committee had issued an ultimatum to the government for holding the trial by that month. The trials of the BDR mutiny and the war criminals might be held simultaneously after disposal of the Bangabandhu murder case, he said.
Sources said the housing and public works ministry has already started shifting its offices to Janata Tower from Abdul Gani Road in the city where the war crimes tribunal will be set up.
Law Minister Shafique Ahmed and State Minister for housing and public works Abdul Mannan Khan had earlier told The Daily Star that the government is sincere in holding the trial and is working to this end. They however could not give any time frame for starting the long awaited trial.
Shafique said the government is collecting evidence of the offences committed during the Liberation War. Replying to a question, he said, "There is no pressure from any foreign countries on us regarding trial of war criminals. Rather, the United States has assured our foreign minister of assistance in the trial."
He also said the government will take all measures to ensure that the trial is of international standard to avoid any dispute over its credibility.
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/11/2009 00:00 ||
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TEGUCIGALPA Deposed Honduran President Manuel Zelaya and the interim government agreed to create a joint cabinet and ditch amnesty for coup leaders, one of the ousted leader's negotiators said.
But both measures depend on Zelaya's return to the presidency, still far from certain four months into the standoff that emerged from the June 28 coup.
Union leader Juan Barahona, one of Zelaya's top three negotiators, told a rally of hundreds of the president's followers that the joint cabinet, if realized, would be composed of ministers from both governments. The Zelaya camp, he added, opposed amnesty because such a move would mean "amnesia, forgetfulness and forgiveness, and we got cannot condone the coup.
"If after all of this, they say that there is not going to be reinstatement (of Zelaya), what difference does it make if we made progress on anything else?" quipped Barahona. "Tuesday, we are going to get at that key point in detail. If on October 15 we do not have a deal, the talks will have failed."
What about all the money Mel and his cronies stole? And ignoring the Supreme Court rulings? And breaking into the military base to grab the ballots?
The formation of a national unity government and amnesty for crimes linked to the coup were two key points of the San Jose reconciliation agenda set out in August, whose central tenet calls for Zelaya's return to office.
The discussions came ahead of a three-day pause that prolongs the uncertainty of resolving the political crisis that has paralyzed the impoverished Central American country since late June.
The resumption of talks on Tuesday will come just two days before the October 15 deadline given by the Zelaya camp for his unconditional return to power. Reinstating him any later, supporters say, risks causing a delay in presidential and legislative elections planned for November 29.
"I do not understand the three-day break," Zelaya's wife Xiomara Castro told AFP from within the Brazilian embassy, where the deposed leader has been holed up since his surprise return to the capital on September 21. "When there's persecution, repression, the minutes and hours count. (The pause) is a way to delay the process, with time passing and the president still not returning to power."
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/11/2009 00:00 ||
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#1
I sincerely hope that honduras has learned, in the future do NOT "Exile" Execute.
Posted by: Redneck Jim ||
10/11/2009 22:43 Comments ||
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PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (Reuters) -- Eleven United Nations peacekeepers were killed Friday when their surveillance plane crashed into a mountainside in Haiti during a routine patrol, United Nations officials said. A rescue team confirmed that there were no survivors among the 11 crew members and military personnel on the plane, a Casa 212, when it went down near the town of Fonds-Verrettes, near the border with the Dominican Republic. The people on board were Uruguayans and Jordanians, said Vannina Maestracci, a United Nations spokeswoman.
May they have been better men than the reputation of their militaries portends, and may that bring comfort to those who mourn their deaths.
The cause of the crash was unknown. Local officials said the plane went down in a remote area near the village of Pays-Pourri in the district of Ganthier, a farming region area east of Port-au-Prince, the capital.
In a statement, the United Nations said that the plane, "carrying 11 passengers, including the crew, crashed southeast of the commune of Ganthier."
"The Casa 212 aircraft was making a reconnaissance flight at the time of the accident before hitting a mountainside," the statement read.
The peacekeeping force, which has been in Haiti since 2004, consists of about 9,000 troops and police officers.
I haven't been keeping track -- have they accomplished anything positive?
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/11/2009 00:00 ||
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#1
"a routine patrol"
Obviously I'm lacking in imagination, but why does "routine" air "surveillance" of a 5th world backwater hellhole take 11 people?
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut ||
10/11/2009 0:39 Comments ||
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#2
...hmmm. The 'UN' connotation should really answer that as in 'How many UN peacekeepers does it take to change a light bulb'. We're not talking cost effectiveness [or any effectiveness] here.
#3
Depends on what kind of "reconnaissance" it was performing. I'm sure someone here who's served in the Navy can come up with the RANGE of crews aboard a Navy P-3 aircraft. It's a lot larger than this. A US Air Force C-121 used to carry a crew of more than 40.
Posted by: Old Patriot ||
10/11/2009 21:58 Comments ||
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Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's Senate approved a government-backed bill that puts new limits on television and radio ownership and will probably force Grupo Clarin SA, the country's biggest media company, to sell off assets.
The Senate handed President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner a victory, passing 44-24 a law she said will "democratize" the airwaves. After a session lasting almost 20 hours, senators approved the 164 articles of the bill without change. The central provision of the law limits ownership of cable and broadcast operations in a single market. In pushing the bill, Fernandez said Clarin holds 73 percent of Argentina's radio, television and cable licenses.
Critics of the bill, such as Senator Luis Petcoff Naidenoff of the Radical Civic Union party, said its aim was in fact to "silence voices" of dissent after Fernandez and her husband, former President Nestor Kirchner, began accusing Clarin of bias in covering their policies.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/11/2009 00:00 ||
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#1
A friend of mine from Argentina has related to me the rampant corruption and the takeover of pensions by the govt. We are on the same course. Just playing catchup.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
10/11/2009 17:15 Comments ||
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The new missile plan from US President Barack Obama's administration raises questions and Moscow is waiting for Washington to explain its intentions, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday.
"The statements that are constantly being voiced raise more questions than answers," Lavrov told reporters during a visit to the Moldovan capital for a summit of ex-Soviet countries.
"We would like to receive full clarification," Lavrov added, referring to the plan presented by the Obama administration last month to replace an older plan backed by George W. Bush that would have placed missile defence facilities in eastern Europe.
Moscow and Washington are now holding talks so Russia can "understand the configuration" of the new missile defence system, Lavrov said, but he added that reports of some US proposals were raising eyebrows in Moscow.
He said a recent US report that the United States might include Ukraine in its missile defence plans was "rather unexpected."
US defence publication Defense News reported Thursday that Washington might consider Ukraine as part of its new anti-missile programme, and had added the ex-Soviet country "to the list of possible early warning sites."
Defense News cited the source of the report as Alexander Vershbow, US assistant secretary of defence for international security affairs.
"A statement by Alexander Vershbow was rather unexpected," Lavrov said when asked to comment.
"He is a person who's prone to extravagancies," Lavrov added, referring to Vershbow, who is also a former US ambassador to Russia.
Lavrov's comments came ahead of a planned visit to Moscow by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is due be in Russia October 12-14.
Lavrov said Russian President Dmitry Medvedev would most likely meet with her during her stay in Moscow.
Lavrov accompanied Medvedev to a meeting of the Russia-led Commonwealth of Independent States, a group of ex-Soviet nations.
#2
ION WMF > RUSSIA FELL INTO THE US-WEST'S HIGH ENERGY TRAP: CHINA IS THE NEXT TARGET FOR HARMFUL DEMOCRATIC REFORMS MEANT TO EXPAND US-WETSERN CONTROL OF ASIA.
* SAME > OSAMA BIN LADEN'S AL QAEDA GROUP THREATENS ATTACKS AGZ CHINESE: "UNRESTRICTED WARFARE" MAKES CHINESE TOLERANCE DIFFICULT.
#4
They scared Obama into folding once, they are testing his limits. Perhaps he'll agree to build the bases in Russia, staffed by Russians where they can examine and turn it off if necessary while the US pays for it all.
NEW YORK, Oct. 10 (Yonhap) -- U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has no intention of getting involved in South Korean politics after his retirement as he wants to focus on his current job, a South Korean lawmaker said Saturday after meeting with him here.
Political watchers in Seoul say Ban, formerly a South Korean foreign minister, is a potential presidential candidate, given his popularity and career. In particular, they claim, the main opposition Democratic Party, short of potential candidates, may try to solicit Ban's help once he retires. In a number of private meetings with South Korean officials, however, Ban, a life-time diplomat, said he has no interest in South Korea's domestic politics.
"Politics are icky. I, sir, am a diplomat!"
Nay, a veritable statesman. Principled and all that.
Indeed. The kind that says "I, sir" and "nay" with a straight face.
"Secretary-General Ban told us that he is not interested in local politics at all," Rep. Park Jin of the ruling Grand National Party, who chairs the National Assembly's Foreign Affairs, Trade and Unification Committee, said after Ban's dinner meeting with a group of lawmakers visiting here for the annual parliamentary audit of Seoul's diplomatic mission to the U.N.
It is the first time that Ban has openly expressed his intention to stay away from the South Korean politics, especially in a meeting with ruling and opposition lawmakers.
"Since the secretary-general has eagerly made clear his intentions, we all need to help him do his best for his duty," Park said.
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/11/2009 00:00 ||
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SEOUL, Oct. 11 (Yonhap) -- South Korea will refrain from selling dollar-denominated state bonds for the time being, officials at the finance ministry said Sunday, reflecting concerns that the local currency has strengthened excessively against the greenback.
South Korea suffered from a severe dollar shortage last year, hit by the global financial meltdown, which prompted the government to announce a plan to issue a record US$6 billion in currency stabilization bonds in 2009. Seoul has sold $3 billion worth of the bonds so far this year. But as the global credit crunch has eased and local banks and companies have become more able to borrow dollars from abroad, the government has decided to put additional dollar-denominated bond issuance on hold, ministry officials said.
"Currently, the government is considering scaling back or stopping the sale of currency stabilization bonds, and instead issuing non-dollar state bonds. The government is open to all options," said a senior official at the Ministry of Strategy and Finance.
The Korean won has gained about 35 percent to the greenback since March, raising concerns that the sharp gain may hurt exports, the backbone of the local economy.
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/11/2009 00:00 ||
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#1
The Korean won has gained about 35 percent to the greenback since March, raising concerns that the sharp gain may hurt exports, the backbone of the local economy.
If you have been eye'ing that Samsung LCD widescreen for Christmas, now is probably a good time to buy it.
American troops on exercise in the Philippines yesterday sent food and medical supplies to areas still struggling with the aftermath of severe storms. More than 600 people have died following the arrival of Tropical Storm Ketsana last month and Typhoon Parma, which struck on 3 October.
Rescuers remain hopeful of finding more survivors in the stricken north of the country after pulling six people from landslides. But with roads blocked and bridges washed away, the government's resources have been stretched to the limits and a request for US military assistance was made.
The disaster has displaced about a million people and killed 337 in the capital, Manila, and surrounding provinces. More than 287,000 remain in evacuation centres.
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/11/2009 00:00 ||
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#1
Instead of sending aid after the storms, wouldn't it have been smarter for Bambi just to keep his promise of lowering the oceans and calming the seas?
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut ||
10/11/2009 0:41 Comments ||
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#2
aid is good for our Phillipino friends
gotta keep the last US colony strong, plus they're really great folks, for the most part, except for the ones who hate us, but then again, they seem to hate everyone.
#3
746 - the ones that hate us have quite a bit in common with most of the rest of the world that hates us - they're MUSLIM. Might have quite a bit to do with it.
Posted by: Old Patriot ||
10/11/2009 22:01 Comments ||
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A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
