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2020-05-15 Science & Technology
Without A Vaccine, Herd Immunity Won't Save Us
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Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-15 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11134 views ]  Top

#1 There's two things we do know about COVID
1 if you're under 65 your risk is extremely low
2 if you have low Vitamin d your risk of an over-reaction is raised.
Maybe the government has low political vitamin D?
Posted by Bright Pebbles 2020-05-15 03:11||   2020-05-15 03:11|| Front Page Top

#2 Both (1) & (2) are anti-locker fantasies, BP.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-15 05:33||   2020-05-15 05:33|| Front Page Top

#3 Golly gee, my folks grew up without TB or polio vaccines. Society survived. They missed the 1918 flu but their parents made it through. We'll watch how the plasma transfusions are doing now.

That said we've seen the concept in action and fail. For generations our children avoid certain diseases we haunted with. However vaccines then and now protected the bulk of the population. Parents got some anti-vac mentality focusing on the 1 percent that may have a bad reaction. They choose to use the herd for protection. Then the previous administration decided to increase the population without an Ellis Island program. That's when those long ago diseases reappeared and many American kids got to experience the curse of those previously suppressed diseases. The herd changed.
Posted by Procopius2k 2020-05-15 06:49||   2020-05-15 06:49|| Front Page Top

#4 The fantasists are behind the state wheel locking down countries to tilt at viral windmills.
Posted by Bright Pebbles 2020-05-15 07:08||   2020-05-15 07:08|| Front Page Top

#5 Forever quarantine is a quasi-religious cult like gerbil worming.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-15 07:30||   2020-05-15 07:30|| Front Page Top

#6 No one is in favor of a forever quarantine. The problem is we have politicians who are terrified of being held responsible for new illnesses after any "reopening".

We also have the left and right preferring to make tribal signals rather than think, discuss, and compromise.
Posted by Rob Crawford 2020-05-15 08:21||   2020-05-15 08:21|| Front Page Top

#7 No one is in favor of a forever quarantine

I don't buy that. At least one commenter here is all in on ForeverQ.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-15 09:13||   2020-05-15 09:13|| Front Page Top

#8  gerbil worming.

Darn Murc I almost churgled morning's coffee out the nose!
Posted by Woodrow 2020-05-15 09:29||   2020-05-15 09:29|| Front Page Top

#9 Hey! The article has a new model, and you can play with the input variables!
Posted by Bobby 2020-05-15 13:47||   2020-05-15 13:47|| Front Page Top

#10 However, This simulator makes a lot of simplifying assumptions about how disease spreads in the population.

And - So let’s go back to that 70 percent herd immunity threshold. If the fatality rate is around 0.5 percent and 70 percent of Americans have to get sick before their immunity starts protecting others, that means more than 1.1 million people would die.

What if the fatality rate is around 0.25%? 550,000 dead? Over what time period? Does the disease slow down in the summer, before the dreaded 'second wave'? Would hospitals still be 'overwhelmed'? How about if it takes the third wave to get to herd immunity? We'll have answers, as TW noted elsewhere, in 6-12 months, or so.

Help me remember - how long did it take to get to herd immunity for SARS? To develop a SARS vaccine? An AIDS vaccine?

Just for reference, the CDC total death count, YTD, as of May 15, is 857,948, and that's 101% of the "expected" deaths. I guess increased COVID deaths are compensated by lower vehicular fatalities.
Posted by Bobby 2020-05-15 14:01||   2020-05-15 14:01|| Front Page Top

#11 "we don’t yet know what the herd immunity threshold is."

Herd immunity might not save us, but it might already have saved us, we don't really know would be more accurate if a bit lengthy title.
Posted by rjschwarz 2020-05-15 15:52||   2020-05-15 15:52|| Front Page Top

#12 We know that initial tests had a high degree of false positives - hence the (touching - it touched > 3000 people in Sweden) belief in masses of asymptomatic infected and coming herd immunity.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-15 16:05||   2020-05-15 16:05|| Front Page Top

#13 The response to 2nd and 3rd wave will be different.

They won’t be putting people into nursing homes; there will be more masks/gloves/wipes available; more tests and the drug cocktail to catch it more quickly.
Posted by Klem Kadiddlehopper 2020-05-15 17:36||   2020-05-15 17:36|| Front Page Top

#14 Locking down the healthy forever, there could never be anything wrong with that...right?
Posted by Crusader 2020-05-15 19:11||   2020-05-15 19:11|| Front Page Top

#15 Again, a quarantine involves segregating the sick. Of course numbers people are not good with words.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-15 19:36||   2020-05-15 19:36|| Front Page Top

23:22 ruprecht
23:03 Rob Crawford
22:12 Alaska Paul
21:55 Thing From Snowy Mountain
21:01 M. Murcek
20:43 Phusotle Dingle5823
20:33 Procopius2k
20:27 Procopius2k
20:19 Woodrow
20:05 ruprecht
20:02 trailing wife
19:56 Frank G
19:52 Lex
19:37 Richard Aubrey
19:36 M. Murcek
19:27 trailing wife
19:26 Woodrow
19:18 trailing wife
19:11 Crusader
18:53 jpal
18:53 M. Murcek
18:51 Frank G
18:48 JohnQC
18:44 Dave Mac









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