Article

2020-03-19 -Short Attention Span Theater-

More silliness, including: Brilliant Actress Vanessa Hudgens Questions Social Distancing, Since Coronavirus Deaths ‘Inevitable’

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Posted by Fred 2020-03-19 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11132 views ] Top

#1 Actually the substance of what the young lady said isn't too far off the mark. It's just a nastier version of the flu.

And yes, as with the flu every winter, thousands will die. Inevitably.

The hysterics and fools are on the other side. Best to leave this person alone, I'd say.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-19 01:11|| 2020-03-19 01:11|| Front Page Top

#2 I'm afraid Lex you still don't understand the exponential curve and what it means.

Posted by European Conservative 2020-03-19 03:29|| 2020-03-19 03:29|| Front Page Top

#3 ...I saw this snowflake's comments yesterday morning - it's fortunate for her that her sole job in life appears to be to just stand there and look pretty, because she doesn't appear to have the brains the Good Lord gave a softball.

Mike

Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2020-03-19 03:30|| 2020-03-19 03:30|| Front Page Top

#4 Look Lex, lets settle it once and for all.
The infection rate, at least to a first approximation, is given by a*I*S where I is the density of infected, S is the density of susceptible, and "a" is the rate coefficient (having the dimension of 1/time/density).
Now, when "I" is small fraction of the total population, "S" can be assumed constant. Thus, the growth rate is proportional to a*I i.e.,
dI/dt = (approx) a*I (exponential growth).
If you decrease "a" - by preventing people from mixing, you decrease the rate - which is desirable unless you have unlimited medical resources (c.f. Italy).
The only other way, yours, is to let people mix freely until most of the population had it. Some died, and the rest are resistant.
Please don't take my word for it and look here.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 05:46|| 2020-03-19 05:46|| Front Page Top

#5 The elderly are the people we are trying to save, as this virus has a very very high rate of mortality for them specifically. If you think you can just let people get it without endangering the elderly then think of who is taking care of them, the younger people.

Posted by Marilyn Uloling5420 2020-03-19 06:11|| 2020-03-19 06:11|| Front Page Top

#6 You all missing that good old Sears and Roebuck catalogue now.

Posted by Procopius2k 2020-03-19 07:38|| 2020-03-19 07:38|| Front Page Top

#7 Grom, I'm NOT saying there should be no restrictions or lockdowns. I'm saying they need to be selective, targeted, and above all, informed by much more ACCURATE data on what you call "I" in your formula ("the density of the infected").

What if, as seems all but certain, the numbers being used for "I" by our policy makers are VASTLY understated?

That is, what if the ACTUAL numbers of those infected, as well as the estimated length of time to recover for those who were infected, differ greatly from the "I" and the "t" (time) used by our policy makers in deciding when and where to use their nuclear economic weapon of lockdown?

One of the following things is ~99% certain to be true-- either or both of:
a) many many more people were infected and symptomatic in the earlier part of this year than our "I" numbers indicate (due to sloppy data handling) -- or they were never reflected in the daily counts for "I," thereby producing a false curve, OR

b) many many people were infected but were asymptomatic or else symptomatic and recovered, but were not properly removed from the total count for "I" -- again, due to faulty data practices, and again producing a false curve, OR

c) both a and b, and also a botched understanding of the actual time to recovery for those infected, meaning that every day going forward, your total count for "I" not only fails to capture the newly-infected but fails to subtract those who were but are no longer infected.

Combine the above and you have an INACCURATE INFECTION CURVE, hence no understanding, at all, of how lethal this thing actually is. None.

And upon this garbage data they have decided to destroy the world's economy for a decade. It is almost certainly -- let's be more blunt-- it is absolutely the case that this virus is vastly less lethal than our idiot elites have made it out to be. .

And yet they are killing the economy that sustains and makes civilized living possible for all of us on the basis of garbage data which they don't understand concerning what is almost certainly just a nastier version of the flu.

Selective closures? Fine: maybe sporting events and concerts where tens of thousands of strangers sit elbow to elbow, but not restaurants where parties can be seated six feet apart. A school or work holiday of a month, maybe, but not three months. Etc.

Again, fix your f---ing data points, figure out with much greater precision what the infection curve and mortality rate ACTUALLY look like, and then take INFORMED, data-supported, rational decisions that actually prevent harm -- instead of piling still more harm on top of a crisis.

This is the equivalent of using a flamethrower against rats in the attic. Madness.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-19 09:01|| 2020-03-19 09:01|| Front Page Top

#8 #7 There is no such thing as accurate data on these things, Lex (that's why numerical simulations are bullshit). Anyone who had a mild cold/flu this winter, might've had Covid-19. What is important is the qualitative behavior of the system of equations. And this is crystal clear: lower mixing rate = lower infection rate. Lower infection rate ===> you don't run out of medical resources and have to triage patients like the Italians!
As to economy, economy will recover. Economy represents innate human selfishness and greediness - the strongest forces in the universe!
China Incorporated was going down anyway. Corona thing will just hasten the process.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 09:37|| 2020-03-19 09:37|| Front Page Top

#9 Another voice of sanity - this time from U Chicago law prof and Hoover Fellow Richard Epstein

Again, this is NOT A PANDEMIC.

The crude and extreme measures being taken are not just absurd; they are causing far more damage than this virus could.

This episode will be described in future history books as one of the greatest follies of the modern era.

Hysteria. Collective madness.
Stupidity run rampant, and ruling the world.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-19 10:02|| 2020-03-19 10:02|| Front Page Top

#10 U Chicago law prof now I'm convinced.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 10:14|| 2020-03-19 10:14|| Front Page Top

#11 And our policies are being designed and implemented by geniuses like:
DeBlasio, the incompetent lazy SOB in NY
Sanders, a deluded Lenin impersonator who admires Castro
Schumer the wannabe mafioso
Schiff the serial fabulist and national laughingstock
Madame Mayor Mussolini in Champaign IL
Clyburn, a cynical dope
Ocasio-Cortez, a callow dope
Maxine Waters, a venal dope
Calif.'s Boy Governor Gavin Newsom, a cynical incompetent dope

Influencing all the above, and whipping up fear and hysteria among the public, is a partisan press corps that is as mendacious as it is stupid.

These are the people whom we are forced to follow.

At a minimum we must not show them or their statements respect.

F---these fools. They don't have the faintest idea what they're doing. They are sleepwalking in a fog.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-19 10:17|| 2020-03-19 10:17|| Front Page Top

#12 Re Richard Epstein's analysis and data, I was going to post lengthy excerpts from his careful dissection of the logic and evidence but I thought, perhaps naively, that it was more polite to let you read the article and review his evidence and his model for yourself.

Funny that when your own model is shown to be undone by shitty data, you pivot and say that no numbers are accurate and no one knows nuthin' bout no viruses etc. Whatever, Grom.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-19 10:22|| 2020-03-19 10:22|| Front Page Top

#13 A lawyer and a dog express opinions on epidemiology - what's the difference? The difference between zero knowledge and negative knowledge.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 10:26|| 2020-03-19 10:26|| Front Page Top

#14 Nice comeback.

Admit it: the people who are destroying the world's livelihoods - hence lives, and many orders of magnitude more human lives than will be ended slightly prematurely for a percent of a percent of the world's elderly - these people don't know what the f--- they are doing.

And their data's garbage.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-19 10:40|| 2020-03-19 10:40|| Front Page Top

#15 Look Lex, I don't give a f*ck about your arguments because they tried your way in Italy and we can all see that happened.

p.s. If American economy cannot survive a month of quarantine, maybe it's time to give the keys to the Chinese.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 10:45|| 2020-03-19 10:45|| Front Page Top

#16 No one "tried my way." I said, clearly, above that I favor SELECTIVE and TARGETED measures-- intelligent steps that are appropriate to the local setting and that recognize local mores.

Italian mores, living conditions and behavior are different from American or Australian mores, living conditions and behaviors. They're far more urbanized. They live in multi-generation small houses and smaller apartments. They're out and about every day and every evening, strolling and dining and rubbing elbows with others. They're "touchy-feely" huggers.

Most of the above are good and admirable habits but they are not followed by the vast majority of Americans, who live in single-family houses; segregate the generations, including the elderly; drive to work solo; work in large open offices in which it's easy to space people six feet apart; and who are happy to refrain from physical contact on greeting.

We do NOT need to destroy a generation's hopes of a decent life in order to slow the spread of this thing.

That is completely foolish, and history will judge us harshly. As will our children and grandchildren.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-19 11:02|| 2020-03-19 11:02|| Front Page Top

#17 ^You sound like people saying "It wasn't real socialism"

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 11:07|| 2020-03-19 11:07|| Front Page Top

#18 ... says the man arguing for a degree of ham-handed, incompetent, totalitarian intervention whose remedy is proving already to be vastly more damaging than the illness it seeks to treat

Posted by Lex 2020-03-19 11:12|| 2020-03-19 11:12|| Front Page Top

#19 We do NOT need to destroy a generation's hopes of a decent life in order to slow the spread of this thing.

Eh, if you mean students sent home - anybody who can't learn any intellectual (as distinct from requiring physical dexterity) subject from books and internet resources shouldn't be in school!

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 11:18|| 2020-03-19 11:18|| Front Page Top

#20 You're going to get Trump replaced - temporarily-- with a elect a senile Democrat who will very shortly be replaced by the likes of Warren or Hillary or Kamala the whore.

After you've caused mass unemployment and mass bankruptcies and ruined hundreds of millions if not a billion lives. Nice job.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-19 11:23|| 2020-03-19 11:23|| Front Page Top

#21 p.s. I posted a bunch of examples of (American) businesses adapting to quarantine - but, as you all know, sometimes comments with lots of links foil to post.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 11:25|| 2020-03-19 11:25|| Front Page Top

#22 g(r)omgoru pointed out the well put obvious.

Everyone has opinions and can point to numbers. Having some Chicago lawyer quote numbers without professional qualifying filters can be pretty darn useless if not misleading.

By the way, fatality totals do not frame the definition of pandemic. Contagion levels do.

Posted by Woodrow 2020-03-19 12:55|| 2020-03-19 12:55|| Front Page Top

#23 You may not think much of Merkel as a politician, but she understands science.

Lex, we don't have a month's time until you understand the problem.

Posted by European Conservative 2020-03-19 13:09|| 2020-03-19 13:09|| Front Page Top

#24 Your insults and ad hominems are misplaced.

No one disputes the logic or wisdom of flattening an exponential growth curve. It's your data that are in dispute, and with it, your assessments of the shape of the curve for any region at a particular point in time.

Admit it: you don't know. You have no idea what the actual mortality rate is. No idea how steep the curve is. And in assuming the absolute worst possible case, you are causing more harm than good.

That's the point. Not math, not epidemiology but data aka facts. We're making bad decisions based on bad data.

History will not be kind to us.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-19 13:19|| 2020-03-19 13:19|| Front Page Top

#25 Woodrow, if you want to make arguments by authority then listen to Stanford biophysicist and Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt.

Regardless, this is an extreme over-reaction.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-19 13:21|| 2020-03-19 13:21|| Front Page Top

#26 In Italy the current death rate is very high, in Germany it's still low (but creeping up).

The reason is that in Italy only the very ill get to the hospital, and the hospitals are overwhelmed.

In Germany, we have more beds for intensive care, but if the current growth rate of 20% per day is not brought down, overwhelming will happen here, too. More and more hospital staff will be infected and yes, that's a problem for all those in hospital who DON'T have COVID 19.

At current growth rates, we'd have 1 million infected people in 25 days. About 150,000 are going to need intensive care.

Only a week later, the number would have jumped to 3 million infected, with up to 450,000 needing intensive care.

That's why we need DRASTIC measures to bring that curve down and stretch it out.

This is not rocket science.

Posted by European Conservative 2020-03-19 13:38|| 2020-03-19 13:38|| Front Page Top

#27 Now he's misquoting Levitt (who said [approx] 80% on Diamond Princess turned to be immune). Sorry to say this, amigo, but on this particular subject - you're becoming Herb clone.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 13:38|| 2020-03-19 13:38|| Front Page Top

#28 80% on Diamond Princess turned to be immune???
Of course nonsense. They started with one case, and while the conditions for spreading the virus were perfect, there wasn't enough time to make that exponential curve explode. Passenger disembarked before.

Posted by European Conservative 2020-03-19 13:43|| 2020-03-19 13:43|| Front Page Top

#29 I'm definitely with g(r)omgoru on that one.

Posted by European Conservative 2020-03-19 13:43|| 2020-03-19 13:43|| Front Page Top

#30 Gentlemen - you're talking past each other. Please give it a bit of a rest for a bit? Thank you

Posted by Frank G 2020-03-19 13:46|| 2020-03-19 13:46|| Front Page Top

#31 #29
(a) No actually, if you read Levitt carefully EC, he's right. Three weeks is enough time under these (single air conditioning system, single dinning room) conditions.
(b) Even if 80% naturally immune, that's still 0.2*7.7*10^9*10^(-2) = 15.4 million dead.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 13:54|| 2020-03-19 13:54|| Front Page Top

#32 ^Ooops, #28

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 13:55|| 2020-03-19 13:55|| Front Page Top

#33 #21 Las Vegas strip club to offer drive-through peep show

See good businesses adapt, bad businesses die. That's Social Darwinism, that is.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 14:00|| 2020-03-19 14:00|| Front Page Top

#34 Cocaine Mitch Restructures Campaign Into a Volunteer Based Delivery Service for the Elderly

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 14:06|| 2020-03-19 14:06|| Front Page Top

#35 Nice try but another fail.
How bout you stop your pissing March about credentials and take a look at the CDC's own Diamond Princess data ?

# of total passengers & crew on the Diamond Princess was reported to be 3,711.

As of March 5, the CDC's total count of laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID19 on the Diamond Princess was confirmed a total of 634 (adjusted down from initial count of 706).

634 out of 3,711. Can you say, roughly 20%?

Now look at mortality-- again, let's use CDC data.

Also as of March 5, the CDC's total count of deaths of Diamond Princess individuals that were attributable to COVID19 was 4, yes FOUR -- this too was adjusted down from the initial assessment of 6.

"Crude CFR, %: 0.83"
"Adjusted CFR, %: 0.64"

Please stop with your insults and don't be so obnoxious.

Everything I and others are saying is based on logical analysis of data -- in this case the CDC's own data. Take it up with the CDC if you don't like this data set.

Best regards,
L

Posted by Lex 2020-03-19 14:06|| 2020-03-19 14:06|| Front Page Top

#36 Go and look up "exponential growth", and don't bother me anymore.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 14:14|| 2020-03-19 14:14|| Front Page Top

#37 OH LOOK! she has a HOOK in dat schnoz to LEAD this dolt around? OH! how dandy for fools

Posted by ranture 2020-03-19 14:29|| 2020-03-19 14:29|| Front Page Top

#38 More snark.
Try again: 4 people died out of nearly 4,000 on a cruise ship, nearly all of whom would have been exposed at some point on this ship's journey. This is the most benign environment possible for the spread of the virus, for all the obvious reasons - close quarters, intimacy, shared dining facilities, recirculated air, handrails all over the ship. AND a population that skews elderly!

Even if you assumed that as many as half the US population were to meet all of those risk factors, extrapolating from this particular case to that population of 160 million would get you to about 160,000 deaths. That's the worst case.

In reality, the likely total number of deaths will be a small fraction of that absolute worst case number - maybe 40,000, maybe 20,000, maybe 60,000 - but nowhere near your absurd estimates. These deaths are and will be a tragedy. It cuts close to me personally, so I don't say any of this lightly.

But there is simply no f---ing way that the virus in its current form is going to kill millions of Americans. It's on the order of a very nasty flu season. There is no point in killing the economy over a bad flu season.

That's all I'll say on this.
Rant on, rave on, direct your bile at 'Erb or someone else but not me. I'm out.

Счастливо,
Л.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-19 14:31|| 2020-03-19 14:31|| Front Page Top

#39 g(r)omgoru

Don't forget that protective measures were taken after the discovery. Infection rate was very high in the first days but dropped later on.

Posted by European Conservative 2020-03-19 14:38|| 2020-03-19 14:38|| Front Page Top

#40 ^OK, so Levitt overstated a bit - he is a Nobel laureate.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 14:45|| 2020-03-19 14:45|| Front Page Top

#41 the scarier(est?) thing is that when everything goes back to 'normal' government will see its reaction (whether you think it is just enough or too much) as the thing that saved us all.

So from then on, whenever a nasty virus rears its head, this will be the reaction. And i'm sure the reaction of total chaos would never be used in a nefarious way by the government,...

Posted by Bob Grorong1136 2020-03-19 15:05|| 2020-03-19 15:05|| Front Page Top

#42 See good businesses adapt, bad businesses die. That's Social Darwinism, that is.
Spoken like a true pensioner or government employee, not like a business owner with a lot more on the line. Some business get killed.. asshole.

Posted by Vespasian Ebboting9735 2020-03-19 15:37|| 2020-03-19 15:37|| Front Page Top

#43 Spokenlike a true pensioner or government employee, not like a business owner with a lot more on the line. Some business get killed.. asshole.

Why two dots before signature?

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 15:40|| 2020-03-19 15:40|| Front Page Top

#44 Why no denial of being a silver spoon, government pensioner?

Posted by Vespasian Ebboting9735 2020-03-19 15:50|| 2020-03-19 15:50|| Front Page Top

#45 For the same reason I don't deny being 10 ft tall.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 15:54|| 2020-03-19 15:54|| Front Page Top

#46 I will just point out that there are plentiful safety nets for the poor, so they will be uncomfortable but not destroyed.

Between some and many small businesses will go under, however, driving their owners to bankruptcy. Which is not the same as being wiped out and ruined, exactly the refuge it was designed to be.

President Trump yesterday signed the revised version of that bill the honourable speaker of the house had loaded with so many extras, so funding will start flowing in all sorts of directions, including expanded paid leave — one can hope that in the midst of all the alarums, the most egregiously unnecessary spending will somehow not be executed.

The IRS announced that while tax returns are due as usual on April 15th, payment can be delayed for three months.

The Department of Housing and Urban Development announced they will not be evicting anyone in the short term.

I think federal payroll taxes are not being collected for the short term as well.

If we can break the transmission chain on this thing, it may die out completely in the next month or so. Or at least become rare enough that the 40+ research efforts toward better tests, treatments, and vaccines will have time to bear fruit, along with the DOD sharing masks, meds, ventilators and field hospitals, and manpower where they are most needed, while domestic manufacturers turn their efforts to ramping up assembly lines making masks, protective clothing, hospital supplies, and so forth. Which means we are probably not looking at months of confinement, but weeks.

Posted by trailing wife 2020-03-19 16:02|| 2020-03-19 16:02|| Front Page Top

#47 All of the above applies to America. But other Western countries are reportedly already organizing new safety net spending.

My prayers that we all come through this thing alive and relatively unscathed. And soon — Mr. Wife really needs a social life bigger than just me.

Posted by trailing wife 2020-03-19 16:07|| 2020-03-19 16:07|| Front Page Top

#48 ^Skype?

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-19 16:09|| 2020-03-19 16:09|| Front Page Top

#49 To all the above participants in this thread - this is why I have been a regular reader for a long time...thanks to all

Posted by TZSenator 2020-03-19 20:00|| 2020-03-19 20:00|| Front Page Top

#50 TZSenator! It’s been a a while — good to see you. :-)

Skype?

I wish. Sadly not the same as being in a crowd sharing the experience.

Posted by trailing wife 2020-03-19 20:25|| 2020-03-19 20:25|| Front Page Top

23:51 CrazyFool
23:14 Marilyn Elmeque9472
22:59 Marilyn Elmeque9472
22:38 bbrewer126
22:08 Lex
21:44 lord garth
21:25 bbrewer126
21:19 bbrewer126
21:02 Raj
20:49 bbrewer126
20:43 Frank G
20:35 bbrewer126
20:27 Procopius2k
20:25 trailing wife
20:21 ruprecht
20:18 Raj
20:14 Marilyn Elmeque9472
20:06 Marilyn Elmeque9472
20:05 Raj
20:00 TZSenator
20:00 Frank G
19:59 Raj
19:56 Raj
19:52 Frank G