Article

2011-08-11 The Grand Turk

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Lord Garth 2011-08-11 00:00|| || Front Page|| [2 views ] Top

#1 Turkey has a Kurdish problem. The Kurds are breading faster than the Turks so the problem will become worse.

Invading Syria and convincing Turkish Kurds to move and give up all claim to land in Turkey in exchange for their own homeland would solve that problem.

Manage that and then Turkey just has to solve their self-created Cypress problem.

Posted by rjschwarz 2011-08-11 09:07|| 2011-08-11 09:07|| Front Page Top

#2 Is there an article this is supposed to be linked to?

The Turks aren't going to invade Syria. For one thing, Kurds aren't nomads, you can't convince them to go seize Arab lands to the south & evacuate their actual homes in southern Turkey. Not unless you want to indulge in the usual ethnic-cleansing atrocities to *make* them want to do so.

Also, the Turkish military is paralyzed by Erdogan's rolling purge and decorative show trial display. They couldn't even plan an incursion right now, not without half the staff involved getting tossed in jug for plotting another phantasmic coup. Frankly, if I were a Turkish officer, given an order to plan an invasion of a neighboring country with which we were technically at peace, I might convert the exercise into a coup myself if I thought I could get away with it.

Finally, the Iranians would definitely go nuts if Turkish soldiers started playing "Blitzkrieg along the Euphrates". It probably wouldn't go so far as actual festivities, but I doubt Erdogan needs the mullahs making faces across his eastern border. They might even start arming the Kurds.

Posted by Mitch H. 2011-08-11 09:17|| http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/ 2011-08-11 09:17|| Front Page Top

#3 no link... it is an opinion piece

by me

Posted by Lord Garth 2011-08-11 09:38|| 2011-08-11 09:38|| Front Page Top

#4 Dollars to donuts Erdogen is trying to replace the entire military command with hand picked Islamist loyalists with no serious military training or experience, just like what the Iranians did after their revolution.

Such people are utterly indifferent to their own military getting slaughtered, since they distrust or even hate them anyway. Then their next thought is to augment their diminished numbers with civilians to charge the enemy machine guns.

Because, in the final analysis, such scum don't give a crap about civilian casualties, either.

The only twist to this scenario is NATO, because they won't give diddly for support to a non-NATO certified officer, even if he is adorned as a 14-star general.

While it's unlikely that Erdogen would pull out of NATO, Turkey would no longer be a functioning part of it. Much to the delight of the Greeks, who are capitalizing on every gaffe the Turks pull.

Posted by Anonymoose 2011-08-11 10:14|| 2011-08-11 10:14|| Front Page Top

#5 Such people are utterly indifferent to their own military getting slaughtered, since they distrust or even hate them anyway. Then their next thought is to augment their diminished numbers with civilians to charge the enemy machine guns. Because, in the final analysis, such scum don't give a crap about civilian casualties, either.

Same could be said about a great many governments.

Posted by Besoeker 2011-08-11 10:24|| 2011-08-11 10:24|| Front Page Top

#6 Frankly, if I were a Turkish officer, given an order to plan an invasion of a neighboring country with which we were technically at peace, I might convert the exercise into a coup myself if I thought I could get away with it.

Precisely. A troop mobilization could turn into a purge of Turkey's Islamists.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2011-08-11 10:30|| 2011-08-11 10:30|| Front Page Top

#7 Dollars to donuts Erdogen is trying to replace the entire military command with hand picked Islamist loyalists with no serious military training or experience, just like what the Iranians did after their revolution.

Such people are utterly indifferent to their own military getting slaughtered, since they distrust or even hate them anyway. Then their next thought is to augment their diminished numbers with civilians to charge the enemy machine guns.

I think the mistake here is in assuming that Turkish soldiers will simply obey their superiors. The Islamists are at a point of inflexion. The existing internal security apparatus isn't strong enough to be able to use the usual threats of assassination and torture to cow the Turkish military. The problem is that to get over the threshold, the Islamists in power need to push beyond the point that fear supersedes resentment and rebellious sentiment. But in taking the steps to get to the point where fear inspires automatic obedience, they may trigger an insurrection by troops fearing that it may soon be too late to remove the looming tyranny.

The other problem is that the Arabs won't take too kindly to Turks invading Arab lands. It's one thing to invite Turks into a country, and quite another to get them to leave. Talk about deja vu all over again. I don't think there is a single Arab country that thinks it could stop the Turks once they get going. Why would Saudi Arabia want Turkish troops closer to its borders? Didn't they have enough trouble evicting the Turks after centuries of Turkish domination? Note that the Turks don't have a problem exterminating rebellious populations. How do Arabs justify supporting a Turkish invasion that then - in order to minimize Turkish casualties - kills millions of Arabs in an effort to drive them out of Syria?

Posted by Zhang Fei 2011-08-11 10:44|| 2011-08-11 10:44|| Front Page Top

#8 Finally, the Iranians would definitely go nuts if Turkish soldiers started playing "Blitzkrieg along the Euphrates". It probably wouldn't go so far as actual festivities, but I doubt Erdogan needs the mullahs making faces across his eastern border. They might even start arming the Kurds.

I think this is the biggest factor weighing against any invasion.

Well, second biggest, after the chaos unleashed by the latest purges.

Posted by charger 2011-08-11 11:38|| 2011-08-11 11:38|| Front Page Top

#9 The Kurds don't lack for small arms or training. They've made nods & winks and a package dropped off the truck or 2 into a well organized, experienced and effective National Militia, reminds of um..... that deh... Haganah.

Posted by S 2011-08-11 14:04|| 2011-08-11 14:04|| Front Page Top

#10 I'm with Moose and Zang. Turkey looks like it is going thru a soft version of the purges after the Iranian 'revolution'.

The last thing the Turk Government would want to do is mobilize the army.

+ no one is going to welcome the Turks as liberators.

Posted by phil_b 2011-08-11 15:21|| 2011-08-11 15:21|| Front Page Top

#11 Syria has WMD and Turkey doesn't.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2011-08-11 16:01|| 2011-08-11 16:01|| Front Page Top

#12 well, except for the nukes at Incirlik.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2011-08-11 16:04|| 2011-08-11 16:04|| Front Page Top

#13 Good question, because Iran is already thinking about colonizing Iraq, when the US leaves. Taking Syria would leave them with a huge Near East bloc.

What about Iran's nukes? The won't announce that capacity until they get nuclear tipped ICBMs, targeted at US cities.

Why won't BHO pre-empt a Homeland threat? His Homeland isn't in the US.

Posted by Glavitle Bucket1058 2011-08-11 21:01|| 2011-08-11 21:01|| Front Page Top

#14 What about Iran's nukes? The won't announce that capacity until they get nuclear tipped ICBMs, targeted at US cities.

Why would they wait until they can reach the U.S., Glavitle Bucket1058, when Israel is so much closer, and they see wiping Israel off the map as necessary to redeem the entire Muhammed experiment?

Posted by trailing wife 2011-08-11 22:47|| 2011-08-11 22:47|| Front Page Top

23:52 SteveS
23:30 JosephMendiola
23:24 JosephMendiola
22:47 trailing wife
22:29 USN,Ret.
22:15 Dale
22:13 Vespasian Cliter3067
21:38 Pappy
21:31 Mike Kozlowski
21:19 Cincinnatus Chili
21:13 chris
21:11 chris
21:03 chris
21:01 Glavitle Bucket1058
20:57 Glavitle Bucket1058
20:56 Glavitle Bucket1058
20:53 notascrename
20:49 Glavitle Bucket1058
20:19 Thing From Snowy Mountain
19:41 Pollyandrew
19:38 Bobby
19:36 chris
19:30 Bobby
19:29 Procopius2k