Article

2011-01-31 Africa North

Egypt and Tunisia usher in the new era of global food revolutions

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Posted by phil_b 2011-01-31 02:38|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top

#1 It's not Marx---it Malthus, phil_b (Philby?).

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2011-01-31 04:45|| 2011-01-31 04:45|| Front Page Top

#2 Malthus was right except for one thing, the impact of technology. Technology makes the world's capacity to support an ever larger population possible and has been for the last 200 years.

The obvious is that the Arab world contributes nothing to world's technological progress, and merely free-rides with it's ever increasing population.

Heraclitus - 500BC

All is flux

Posted by phil_b 2011-01-31 05:24|| 2011-01-31 05:24|| Front Page Top

#3 neither the Tunisian nor the Egyptian situations were due to food

obvious corruption and brutal suppression of opposing ideas was the common element

Posted by Lord Garth 2011-01-31 06:12|| 2011-01-31 06:12|| Front Page Top

#4
#2 Don't confuse parameters with the shape of the function, phil_b.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2011-01-31 08:06|| 2011-01-31 08:06|| Front Page Top

#5 Malthus discovered a very limited case, appropriate solely for pre-contraceptive societies which rely on youth labor. Now there are other cases which produce other catastrophic effects based on unsustainable welfare, but that has nothing to do with the simple algorithm Malthus thought had societies bound in irons.

This is, like all modern famines and food price shocks, political, not predestined.

Posted by Mitch H. 2011-01-31 08:48|| http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/ 2011-01-31 08:48|| Front Page Top

#6 This is, like all modern famines and food price shocks, political, not predestined.

This. I had instructors in college 15 years ago who said that the last famine that wasn't caused and or excaerbated by politics happened in the mid 19th century.

Mike

Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2011-01-31 09:53|| 2011-01-31 09:53|| Front Page Top

#7 Anybody care to ask the Muslim Brotherhood how they propose to increase grain production in Egypt?

Didn't think so.

Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2011-01-31 11:54|| 2011-01-31 11:54|| Front Page Top

#8 And I wonder if the Soddies, who claim such concern about events in Cairo, have considered how the price of oil impacts the price of grain.

Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2011-01-31 11:58|| 2011-01-31 11:58|| Front Page Top

#9 Toll the trade routes. That and raiding has been the business model from Marco Polo to the modern age where oil came into demand. Self reliance is security.

Posted by swksvolFF 2011-01-31 13:12|| 2011-01-31 13:12|| Front Page Top

#10 Is it really about food [as though loads of the stuff will magically appear shortly afterward] or is food just the trigger of the widespread discontent with the incompetent, corrupt, and obviously stupid ruling castes around the globe.

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

Posted by Procopius2k 2011-01-31 13:40|| 2011-01-31 13:40|| Front Page Top

#11 I'd say that is a chicken and egg arguement. I would; but then I would have to pay $1 to the EPA for mentioning chickens which put coarse particulates (dirt) into the air then pay $1 to mention egg which at the moment is on the DHHS naughty food list.

*User ID 04223586 swksvolFF you have been fined $1 for using inappropriate or inflammatory language concerning officials or departments of the US Federal Government on an Orange Rated Topic.

Posted by swksvolFF 2011-01-31 17:02|| 2011-01-31 17:02|| Front Page Top

#12 Have to agree, phil_b. There are many reasons for the present revolutions but the major one is the cost of food. Economics as Hayak states is simply a tautology. For example another way of saying that the price of gold has gone through the roof is to say the dollar has gone through the floor. Gold has held parity with many currencies e.g. the Swiss Franc.
Richard Cantillon, the Irish founder of modern economics say that wealth in itself is nothing but the food, conveniences, and pleasures of life.
In other words the amount you are forced to spend on food defines if you are wealthy(as in the western world) or poor (as in the Third world)
Egypt is the worlds largest importer of grain. The price of this grain depends on their currency which they along with most other currencies, including China, have decided to tie to a falling dollar, courtesy of The Bernank.
We now have a perfect storm which is causing an increase in food prices, as pointed out by Ambrose in the article.
An inflationary policy which was designed by the Fed to force China to increase the value of the Yuan, has had the unintended consequences we are now seeing in the Middle East.

Posted by tipper 2011-01-31 18:31|| 2011-01-31 18:31|| Front Page Top

#13 I blame Al Gore.

Posted by KBK 2011-01-31 20:02|| 2011-01-31 20:02|| Front Page Top

#14 You also have to figure young men who are chronically unemployed, cannot get women, and have no prospects to better themselves. Same thing in Saudi. Perfect labor pool for dissidents and jihadis. And what about the Nile delta for growing food? They have the water of the Nile, why cannot they grow some sun loving grains there? Hell with the heat, they could make popcorn right on the stalk.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2011-01-31 20:35|| 2011-01-31 20:35|| Front Page Top

#15 Don't fergit also WATER.

* e.g. PEOPLES DAILY FORUM > MILLIONS IN CHINA FACE WATER SHORTAGE,

versus

SAME > THE GREAT WALL OF POVERTY DIVIDING CHINA.

Academia teaches that, in part, GENGHIS KHAN + DESCENDANTS attacked CHINA + MidEast + ultimately Europe in order to procure NEW GRAZING LANDS FOR MONGOLIAN HORSE, ANIMAL HERDS.

GOOD "GREEN-ISM" = GOOD INVASION/MIL POLICY???

[1960's "MYSTERIOUS ISLAND" Movie = CAPT. NEMO'S GIANT CREATURES here].

GIANT-SIZED OWG FOOD CROPS = FOOT-LONG-SIZED-ARE-THEIR-YOUNG-UNS GIANT INSECTS = BUG-ZILLAS, CORRECT, ala GLOBAL WARMING.

["2525" SONG + "10,000 BC" Movie = 10,000 AD here]. BACK-TO-THE-FUTURE of POST-OWG? = SPACE OWG MAN BEING TASTY PREY TO THE GIANT -ZILLAS HE HIMSELF CREATED TO HELP FEED HIMSELF.

OOOOOOOPPPSIES....

Posted by JosephMendiola 2011-01-31 21:13|| 2011-01-31 21:13|| Front Page Top

#16 And what about the Nile delta for growing food?

As I recall, Egypt was called the granary of the Roman empire. That's why Mark Antony teaming up with Cleopatra was such a big deal.

Posted by trailing wife 2011-01-31 21:25|| 2011-01-31 21:25|| Front Page Top

#17 > Malthus was right

No he was not. He was a poor thinker and wrong on everything. He was an opponent of the vastly superior economist Ricardo.

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2011-01-31 21:32|| 2011-01-31 21:32|| Front Page Top

#18 Malthus was right
Bright Pebbles, I think Malthus greatest claim to fame was his influence on Darwin.

As I recall, Egypt was called the granary of the Roman empire
trailing wife, it used to be, but it did not have 80 million nor was it muslim. This article from 4 months ago gives you some idea of the current situation.

Posted by tipper 2011-01-31 21:54|| 2011-01-31 21:54|| Front Page Top

#19 As I understand the dam, important for a number of reasons, actually decreased farming ability of Egypt. The flood waters would fertilize and moisturize the farmland.

Then farmers found they could actually make money in cotton over foodstuff, so they went into that market.

Farming takes a certain level of security. Produce takes a long time to develop during which the ground cannot be disturbed (other than farm maintenance), is worthless if harvested early (or late but with instability early is the problem), and if self sustaining enough produce must be saved for next season's planting, and that seed must be secured. Not sure how much of the Nile and/or Delta this applies to.

Posted by swksvolFF 2011-01-31 22:13|| 2011-01-31 22:13|| Front Page Top

#20 PEOPLES DAILY FORUM > LONE ANALYST [Barrie Wilkinson] WARNS OF 2015 BANK CRISIS [Global] AMIDST DAVOS UPBEAT.

ARTIC = World has only given lip service to initiating the reforms needed to prevent or deter another major crisis - iff one does occur, the World may not be able to stabilize the System this time as what $$& it had went towards feel-good minor remedies that accomplished little-or-nothing of substance.

* ION CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > LOOKS LIKE A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF SAUDI YOUTHS [young adults] HAVE THE JOB SKILLS OF HAMBURGER FLIPPERS | SAUDI YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT EXCEEDS 40.0 PERCENT.

ARTIC = ...
> Approximatley 1/2 of KSA's population of 28.3Milyuhn is AGED 20-24 YEARS OLD OR YOUNGER, wid 40.0 PERCENT aged 15 years-old or younger.
> FOREIGN WORKERS comprise 1/3 = 8-10Milyuhn of the KSA's 28.3Milyuhn population.
> THE SAUDI ROYAL GOVT. IS THE COUNTRY'S LARGEST SINGLE EMPLOYER; WID FOREIGN WORKERS, NOT LOCALS, COMPRISING THE MAJORITY OF THE SAUDI PRIVATE SECTOR.

* SAME > FATE OF SUEZ CANAL UNSETTLES GLOBAL MARKETS | [NYT] FATE OF SUEZ CANAL ON MINDS OF WALL STREET + EUROPE AS EGYPT GOES BALLISTIC.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2011-01-31 23:19|| 2011-01-31 23:19|| Front Page Top

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