Article

2010-04-18 Home Front: Politix

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Fred 2010-04-18 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11130 views ] Top

#1 Hope he's right. Dick has been known to be off before.

IMTrade was a great predictor in the last couple of election cycles and right now they have the house with a slim Dem majority after November. I'd rather Morris were the one who was right, but his record doesn't match theirs for accuracy.

Posted by no mo uro 2010-04-18 07:38|| 2010-04-18 07:38|| Front Page Top

#2 #1 Hope he's right. Dick has been known to be off before.

The passage of Obamacare would be a most recent example.

Posted by Besoeker 2010-04-18 08:15|| 2010-04-18 08:15|| Front Page Top

#3 Dick has been known to be off before.

Not to mention this oh-so-slight miscalculation...

Posted by RIcky bin Ricardo (Abu Babaloo) 2010-04-18 08:32|| 2010-04-18 08:32|| Front Page Top

#4 A Republican landslide? Now there's hope and change I can get behind. I have seen all kinds of estimates at this time--anywhere from 20-100 seat pickup in the House. Karl Rove, says 35 seats in the House and the door's open for more. Forty is the number that sends Pelosi packing from Speaker.

Posted by JohnQC 2010-04-18 08:59|| 2010-04-18 08:59|| Front Page Top

#5 in 2007, Morris was calling the Repub nomination for Rudy

he also predicted, just a week before the event that Hillary would lose the NH primary in 08

Posted by lord garth 2010-04-18 09:00|| 2010-04-18 09:00|| Front Page Top

#6 This is the political version of the Sports Illustrated cover jinx. Except Morris' off-predictions aren't urban legends.

Posted by Pappy 2010-04-18 09:40|| 2010-04-18 09:40|| Front Page Top

#7 I think the GOP gets the house (no more gavel, bitch) and gets close in the Senate, but it's still a long way til November. Stay angry, stay motivated. Obama's our best motivator

Posted by Frank G 2010-04-18 10:36|| 2010-04-18 10:36|| Front Page Top

#8 With Rasmussen reporting that Republicans are favored on the Congressional Generic Ballot by 9% and 58% of the country want to repeal Obamacare, it makes sense to me that with a good turnout (53%-54%) on election day, we could see a landslide.

Rothenberg Political Report yesterday moved 44 seats towards Republicans...musta just about killed 'em to have to report that.

We don't need Morris to tell us how the wind is blowing, but if his comments fire up the base, let him spew.

Posted by Gomez Threter7450 2010-04-18 10:49|| 2010-04-18 10:49|| Front Page Top

#9 Rasmussen: Obama drops nine points in 3 days .

-17 on approval

How's that hopenchange working out for you?

Posted by Frank G 2010-04-18 10:54|| 2010-04-18 10:54|| Front Page Top

#10 IMTrade was a great predictor in the last couple of election cycles...

I agree Intrade has been accurate in the past. Check out the graphs for Dems/Repubs winning control in the midterms (steady downward trend for the Dems, steady upward trend for Reps...as Frank has pointed out, we're still 7 months away from the election.

Posted by Gomez Threter7450 2010-04-18 11:13|| 2010-04-18 11:13|| Front Page Top

#11 Its almost better for the Repubs if they get 39 in the house (1 short of the majority) and get the senate to 50-50

1 vote in the House is not a governable margin, and a tie in the senate means Biden has to cast the deciding vote on tons of things, and all of a sudden Lieberman gets to payback the Dem leadership by being the single most important vote in the Senate. Its a nightmare for the Dem part. None of the power, none of the credit, all of the blame.

The worst of the Pelosi-Reid-Obama legislation effects have yet to hit, and when they do, whoever is in power will get blamed. That means the Dems in 2012. Each and every Dem will be vulnerable in the house because they will have to vote for speaker. The Dems have a huge amount of vulnerable Senators in 2012, and they will all be accountable for mess that will happen in the Senate. And even better, Obama himself gets tied directly to every legislative screw-up in the senate, because Biden will be on display every major vote making it impossible for Obama to stay "detached" from the crap that goes on, yet ineffective in their ability to ram bad legislature through.

As a bonus, credit for good stuff can plausibly be claimed by the GOP by showing how they put a halt to the Dems tax-spend and corruption.

This will lead to a GOP sweep of the House, Senate and Presidency in 2012 by a significant (and much more conservative) majority.

Any GOP majority prior to that sets the GOP up for taking the blame and Obama has the MSM blame "GOP Obstructionism" for any failures.

So in many ways its better that the GOP *not* get its majority in either house.

Posted by OldSpook 2010-04-18 13:51|| 2010-04-18 13:51|| Front Page Top

#12 Interesting political analysis OS, thanks!

Posted by Besoeker 2010-04-18 13:56|| 2010-04-18 13:56|| Front Page Top

#13 How's that hopenchange working out for you?

Obviously,he hopes it changes...

Posted by badanov 2010-04-18 14:28|| http://www.freefirezone.org 2010-04-18 14:28|| Front Page Top

#14 I agree with Frank and Gomez, November is a long way off. Several things can happen between now and then. Let's just hope that they're all bad for Barry & the Dems.

Posted by Jefferson 2010-04-18 14:30|| 2010-04-18 14:30|| Front Page Top

#15 What OldSpook said: worst case scenario for Obama is that the Republicans take back just enough seats to give the Democrats a narrow majority in both houses. That will effectively prevent him from getting most of his legislation through, while leaving his party to take the blame for everything.

Oh, he try to blame everything on them (and probably Bush too). He's doing that right now. But it won't sell to anyone but the party faithful.

Posted by Secret Master 2010-04-18 14:35|| 2010-04-18 14:35|| Front Page Top

#16 Old Spook and fellow 'Burgers:
The narrow Dem majority would be horrible for America. We have seen with healthcare how the Dems can disregard popular opinion and bribe/threaten legislators into falling in line.

We have to stop them now and not leave them any loopholes to squeeze through. They absolutely no regard for democracy or any law what so ever.

Vote Early! Vote Often!

Posted by Frozen Al 2010-04-18 14:49|| 2010-04-18 14:49|| Front Page Top

#17 Pollsters aren't seeing the big shift yet. Many of the races that will flip seats haven't had primaries yet, and it's hard to poll "TBD."

So, I'm betting for a big shift that leaves the R's running Congress. And while I love OS's thought of tying the Dems' legislation around their collective necks and hanging them with it, the single most important thing we need to accomplish next year is the repeal of ObamaCare. We'll need the biggest majorities we can get to do it.

Last thought; the most important thing this year is to elect the *right* Republicans. If we send a bunch of McCains and Grahams to DC then we've wasted the biggest opportunity and suffered the biggest setbacks in a generation.

Posted by Iblis 2010-04-18 15:28|| 2010-04-18 15:28|| Front Page Top

#18 Just a trip into the past:

The Republican Revolution or Revolution of '94 is what the Republican Party of the United States dubbed their success in the 1994 U.S. midterm elections, which resulted in a net gain of 54 seats in the House of Representatives, and a pickup of eight seats in the Senate. The day after the election, Democratic Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama changed parties, becoming a Republican. The gains in seats in the mid-term election resulted in the Republicans gaining control of both the House and the Senate in January 1995. Republicans had not held the majority in the House for forty years, since the 83rd Congress (elected in 1952)

The Republicans came up with "A Contract with America" which focused Americans in a way that Republicans have been unable to focus voters since. The stage was set for a Republican president. My concern is that good, principled people get elected who won't be ruined by Washington. Another concern is that either party in power tends towards corruption with time.

Posted by JohnQC 2010-04-18 16:34|| 2010-04-18 16:34|| Front Page Top

#19 The narrow Dem majority would be horrible for America.

Respectfully I disagree. A second Obama term would be horrible for America. A narrow Dem majority would simply result in a lot of gridlock and IMAO a Republican president being elected in 2012.

But I wouldn't worry too hard. It's not like I'm suggesting we don't try hard to get our people elected or anything like that. Just giving a hypothetical.

Posted by Secret Master 2010-04-18 18:01|| 2010-04-18 18:01|| Front Page Top

#20 We need enough of a majority of principled conservatives (no matter their party) who will be able to repeal ObamanationCare.

I don't want to die at a not-so-old age because some bureaucrat decides I'm not worth enough (while providing unlimited healthcare for their relatives - which you know they will - and for illegal aliens).

Posted by Barbara Skolaut 2010-04-18 18:15|| 2010-04-18 18:15|| Front Page Top

#21 "REPUBS FIGHT-WIN THE WARS, DEMOCRATS SPEND THE PEACE", as a pol adage goes.

Iff the above holds true, then Dickie's assessment may be interpreted as AMER MAINSTREAM anticipating SERIOUS MAHA-RUSHIAN GEOPOL TURMOIL IFF NOT WAR(S) TO BREAK OUT ONCE IRAN + MILTERRS DECLARE THEIR NUKES IN 2012???

Everything else is just nice-to-know BLUFF-N-FLUFF.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2010-04-18 18:39|| 2010-04-18 18:39|| Front Page Top

#22 Guys you don't get it do you?

No matter what happens, Obamacare is NOT going to be repealed with Obama in office.

The GOP will NOT get a veto-proof majority in the Senate, and its doubtful they will get that margin in the House, so any talk of repealing Obamacare is stupid until that changes.

The absolute BEST chance we have at rollgin back Obamacare is to keep the dems wiht a 1 seat amjority in the hosue and a tie in the seante. Period.

If you think they can cram through anything with that, you are deluded. Look at the bribes and arm twisting it took this time, and that's with a 40 seat margin. Do you honestly thing after seeing so many of their buddies lose that it would even be close to possible for Pelosi to shive anythign through? And if she did, how would you avoid a Senate filibuster with the GOP only needing 40 votes and having 50 there?

No, the Senate basically Kills Pelosi dead if they can get to 50-50, and if the house drops to 1 vote margin, Pelosi will NOT be able to govern - there will always be that ONE vote in a Red area that will not go her way.

If the GOP gets power in the fall, how do you propose they overcome the same limits? They will nto be able to stop a Dem filibuster in the senate, and will nto have the votes to overcome an Obama veto of the repeal. Instead, they have to pass "compromises" to keep from being called obstructionists, and they soak the blame for any economic problems, cutting into their margins in 2012, as well as staining them as big spenderd: They pass spending cuts, Obama vetos them, then what is left - the GOP GIVES IN and get tarred wiht the same "big spender" brush, and they LOSE CREDIBILITY AGAIN on spending and debt, to the point where 2012 Obama runs against the GOP Congress, and wins. (See Clinton in 96)

Wake the hell UP! The real world is not the internet fantasyland where Obamacare repeal is a done deal just by saying so.

The best chance and only chance we have is a GOP sweep in 2012. And having the Dems crippled to the point whre they cannot pass anything effective, but still blamed for the mess the next 2 years (from their legislation of the past 2 years) is the best way to get there.

Posted by OldSpook 2010-04-18 19:09|| 2010-04-18 19:09|| Front Page Top

#23 No matter what happens, Obamacare is NOT going to be repealed with Obama in office.

The GOP will NOT get a veto-proof majority in the Senate, and its doubtful they will get that margin in the House, so any talk of repealing Obamacare is stupid until that changes.

That makes sense, OldSpook.

Posted by trailing wife 2010-04-18 19:13|| 2010-04-18 19:13|| Front Page Top

#24 we get it - until this president is out of office or we get an override majority, it ain't happening. Luckily our Democrat Overlords front-loaded the hurt and backloaded the ~~pain~~ care. Crush them with their vote record

Posted by Frank G 2010-04-18 19:27|| 2010-04-18 19:27|| Front Page Top

#25 One thing November is going to tell us is how his fellow Dems value The One, public polls aside.

"Hey Bob! Good news. I can get to your rally next week."

"Uhhh, Mr. President, I couldn't impose on you like that."

"No really. I can bring Nancy and we can explain Healthcare to them."

*click*

Another very interesting issue is how the Sarahcuda will deploy herself. (She sure ain't taking orders from the mothership.) She alienates some moderates but it's not hard to think of a lot of districts where an appearance by her would be the political equivalent of a drone strike.

And although I joke, this is one where each of us has to go all out and then some.

Posted by Matt 2010-04-18 19:50|| 2010-04-18 19:50|| Front Page Top

#26 A DNC slight majority ceases to be workable if the filibuster is eliminated. There is already rumblings that it will happen in the near term possibly during the Supreme Court confirmation hearings.
The Republicans will need a majority in at least one house to stop the train wreck. I would prefer a majority in the house where all spending bills originate. A majority in the Senate would include too many people like Lindsay Graham would want to step accross the aisle and facilitate Cap and Trade.
My expectation is that Cap and Trade and Obamacare are a fact of life through 2012. Cardcheck and probably an amnesty will be passed through the lameduck Congress once the filibuster is eliminated. The nasty stuff will occur after the election but before January.

Posted by Super Hose 2010-04-18 20:16|| 2010-04-18 20:16|| Front Page Top

#27 Wake up? We're not asleep. We know Obamacare can't be repealed in today's climate even if we win big in November. It's still a good slogan to run on..."Repeal and Replace".

Wake up! We're going to slaughter the Dems in November!

Posted by Gomez Threter7450 2010-04-18 20:48|| 2010-04-18 20:48|| Front Page Top

#28 Vote Early! Vote Often!
That saying makes me I'll everytime I read it. I know it's a joke but the Dems have tried election shennanigins so often. We're becoming third world before our eyes and it makes me sad.

Posted by Rjschwarz 2010-04-18 21:08|| 2010-04-18 21:08|| Front Page Top

#29 OS:

We will not get a veto-proof majority. Agreed.

We don't need one. All we need is control of the House. All spending bills start there--or in the case of ObamaCare, end there. We defund it. Obama will go for the stand off. Good luck with that. Eventually either Obama blinks (unlikely) or enough Dems get sick of the government being shutdown that they join the vote to repeal.

Repeal is priority #1. Nothing else matters until we re-privative health care.

Posted by Iblis 2010-04-18 22:38|| 2010-04-18 22:38|| Front Page Top

23:30 abu do you love
23:20 JosephMendiola
22:56 trailing wife
22:44 Goober Crealet3411
22:38 Iblis
22:06 JosephMendiola
22:05 swksvolFF
22:03 Asymmetrical
22:02 JosephMendiola
21:51 JosephMendiola
21:46 JosephMendiola
21:40 JosephMendiola
21:34 JosephMendiola
21:33 M. Murcek
21:25 mojo
21:22 JosephMendiola
21:20 Gomez Threter7450
21:20 lotp
21:14 Hellfish
21:08 Rjschwarz
21:08 Hellfish
20:48 Gomez Threter7450
20:42 Super Hose
20:33 Super Hose