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2009-04-27 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

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Posted by Steve White 2009-04-27 00:00|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top

#1 I hope everyone has gotten in a stock of non-perishable food, as well as masks and hand sanitizer, batteries and anything else you would have a problem with, if it wasn't available.

I remember the SARS outbreak in Singapore. Many items dissapeared from store shelves in a couple of hours.

Posted by phil_b 2009-04-27 00:45|| 2009-04-27 00:45|| Front Page Top

#2 Current numbers are now nearly 1600 in Mexico City, with fatalities approaching 200.

One grain of salt - the 1600 are only the reported cases, which include all the fatalaties and hospitalizations, but not those who weathered it at home and recovered.

So the fatality rate is probably not nearly as high as the numbers above indicate, but the numbers do indicate the Mexcian Flu is very contagious compared to the US strain.

Posted by OldSpook 2009-04-27 01:22|| 2009-04-27 01:22|| Front Page Top

#3 The swine flu virus that has killed more than 80 people in Mexico may mutate into a "more dangerous" strain, the World Health Organization has warned.

Mutate as in 'evolve', adapt to its environment and environmental changes.

Posted by Procopius2k 2009-04-27 08:35|| 2009-04-27 08:35|| Front Page Top

#4 No, mutate as in 'it makes it sound like we know what the feck we are talking about'.

Viruses evolve very rapidly. A virus can evolve more in an afternoon than bacteria will in a 100 years.

Posted by phil_b 2009-04-27 08:56|| 2009-04-27 08:56|| Front Page Top

#5 Given the air pollution in Mexico City and the prevalence of respiratory diseases such as TB, it may be that broader swaths of the Mexican population are vulnerable to complications arising from the virus than in the US.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2009-04-27 09:36|| 2009-04-27 09:36|| Front Page Top

#6 Mexico has a Universal Health Care System. The Swine Flu problem will be over in no time.

SNARK OFF.

Posted by Besoeker 2009-04-27 09:48|| 2009-04-27 09:48|| Front Page Top

#7 Swine flu could become dangerous to our economy, more than anything. WHO says it cannot be contracted by eating pork yet Russia, China, and Indonesia are banning imports from the US and Mexico. The EU also warned against any non-essential travel to the US and Mexico. I know how disease is spread and why air travel could be key to a pandemic, but I am also a cynic when it comes to the esteemed officials of the UN and the EU, especially with this administration.

Posted by Thealing Borgia 122 2009-04-27 11:15|| 2009-04-27 11:15|| Front Page Top

#8 According to the reporters on CNBC this morning, we are actually at the end of the flu season, which implies that there have been a great many unreported cases over the past months. Mexico does not have a standardized reporting system like the U.S., so it's difficult to find out what happened before the first reported cases on April 13th, I believe it was.

Mutate as in change. Evolution chooses among the changes to allow preferential survival of the most fit. The question is: how does a flu virus define improved fitness? Silent spread with survival of those infected, or virulence with more virii per dead body? My knowledge of this area is meager, but what I think I know is that the most effective viruses prefer silent spread... and that it takes a while to select for that. And example of a silent virus is Eppstein-Barr, with which some 70% of the U.S. population is infected -- a smallish percentage getting mononucleosis (the "kissing disease" of adolescents), an even smaller percentage developing long term chronic fatigue, but the majority never even aware they have a new passenger

Posted by trailing wife">trailing wife 2009-04-27 11:29|| 2009-04-27 11:29|| Front Page Top

#9 de sky iz fallin

Posted by chiknLitle 2009-04-27 15:19|| 2009-04-27 15:19|| Front Page Top

#10 CNN > Repor described the new SWINE FLU outbreak in US-Mexico as a HYBRID OF HUMAN, AVIAN, + OTHER SWINE FLU viruses.

VARIOUS NETTERS > believe MEXICO OUTBREAK may be NON-NATURAL BIO-ENGINEERED SWINE FLU [IOW, BIOWAR = BIO-TERRORISM]???

Posted by JosephMendiola 2009-04-27 19:39|| 2009-04-27 19:39|| Front Page Top

#11 The question is: how does a flu virus define improved fitness?

The thing about RNA viruses is replication (copying) is very error prone compared to a DNA bacteria. So in a single infected human there will be many thousands(?) of genetic variants of the virus.

99.9999% of these variants will have worse fitness and die out in a short time.

Its the 0.0001% that have some, however slight, advantage that will allow it to spread. And so the process continues in the next infected individual.

Eventually the virus hits the evolutionary jackpot and gets a variant that spreads easily.

The flu is much better at this than other viruses for reasons we don't understand. Although, it's likely due to many variants circulating at the same time with high frequency of co-infection and swapping of genetic material to create 'hybrids'.

Posted by phil_b 2009-04-27 21:14|| 2009-04-27 21:14|| Front Page Top

#12 Thank you, Professor phil_b. Rantburg U rocks!!!

Posted by trailing wife">trailing wife 2009-04-27 22:06|| 2009-04-27 22:06|| Front Page Top

#13 One other thing - the genes of this one shows elements of Influenza A (human) H1 (swine) and H5 (avian). Its a heck of a combo.

Posted by OldSpook 2009-04-27 23:34|| 2009-04-27 23:34|| Front Page Top

23:34 OldSpook
23:31 OldSpook
23:19 Phil_B
22:59 Skidmark
22:59 Fred
22:29 Glising Pelosi4893
22:29 Besoeker
22:22 Seafarious
22:21 Procopius2k
22:20 Procopius2k
22:11 JosephMendiola
22:06 trailing wife
21:58 JosephMendiola
21:56 trailing wife
21:50 JosephMendiola
21:47 Anguper Hupomosing9418
21:44 JosephMendiola
21:43 Shieldwolf
21:41 Anguper Hupomosing9418
21:39 Nimble Spemble
21:38 Nimble Spemble
21:37 JosephMendiola
21:35 Anguper Hupomosing9418
21:34 JosephMendiola