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2009-01-20 Home Front Economy

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Posted by ed 2009-01-20 12:17|| || Front Page|| [1 views ] Top

#1 This is a false comparison for many reasons, the most glaring of which is looking at recessions as being of a fixed duration from start to finish. The actual onset of this recession won't be determined except in retrospect, and most of the major bubble collapses haven't even happened yet.

After the stock market crash of 1929, the year 1930 appeared to have no fewer than three recoveries before the hammer really came down.

Posted by Anonymoose 2009-01-20 15:25|| 2009-01-20 15:25|| Front Page Top

#2 Moose, those graphs are a snapshot to date w/ comparisons to historic recessions. Despite the hysterics, the recession is milder so far than the historical median. While unemployment has grown to the median figure and will likely grow, economic output has not dropped yet, even with the dismal auto market. I attribute that to exporting the recession overseas where most of our nonfood consumer goods are produced. Chinese, Japanese, Korean and German economic figures will be interesting to see.

As for fixed length of recessions:
The 10 previous postwar recessions have ranged in length from 6 months to 16 months, averaging about 10 1/2 months.

Posted by ed 2009-01-20 16:05|| 2009-01-20 16:05|| Front Page Top

#3 Despite this new recession, many CHINESE + ASIAN NETTERS are highly optimistic about their regions eventually taking over economic and world leadership or domination from the US-WEST, TO INCLUD RUSSIA [Chinese SIberia-Far East]???

MANY HAVE INDIC THEIR NEW RECEPTIVITY TOWARDS CLOSER SINO-JAPANESE COOPERATION IFF NOT INTEGRATION, ascribing same as VITAL for Chinese and Asian aspirations.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2009-01-20 19:20|| 2009-01-20 19:20|| Front Page Top

#4 ed: At this point, my conjecture is that the recession has barely begun in one part of the economy, enough to create the impression that it is throughout the economy. But until it is in full swing, it follows the rules of a regional recession, not a national recession.

And when it does break at the national level, it shows signs of being a factor or two greater than any of the postwar recessions. For comparison, I've been looking to some of the great collapses of the 19th Century.

Posted by Anonymoose 2009-01-20 21:49|| 2009-01-20 21:49|| Front Page Top

23:58 DLR
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