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2008-06-20 Great White North

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Posted by Sherry 2008-06-20 11:57|| || Front Page|| [6 views ] Top

#1 If Hezbollah attacks Canada, then Lebanon will be the next Afghanistan. NATO will be all over them like white on rice. After what happened to al Qaeda, you would think that Hezbollah would think twice before attacking a NATO country.

Posted by crosspatch 2008-06-20 12:07|| 2008-06-20 12:07|| Front Page Top

#2 no, 1, lebanon wont be.

If theres a hit on a Jewish or Israeli target in Canada, on the scale of the buenos aires hit, and NATO fails to hit Iran directly, Israel will hit Iran. All bets are off at that point.

Posted by liberalhawk 2008-06-20 12:59|| 2008-06-20 12:59|| Front Page Top

#3 Crosspatch, you say that NATO will be all over them like white on rice". Yeh, right. NATO and whose army? Outside of the US, there is no country in NATO that has anything like an effective army that is actually able to wage war on any scale. At most they have small weak peacekeeping forces that fold under fire. Look at the Brits and Basra, or any of the Canadian or European forces in Afghanistan. Thr troops sent to Afghanistan have to deal with a minority(Taliban) force of a minority tribe(Pushtun?) that has little local support due to their savage ways. All those Eurotroops were doing so well that they needed us to send in a few good Marines. This is Hezbollah, backed by Iran, we're talking about. Iraqi troops would probably be the best to send there, if they weren't so busy at home. Israeli troops with effective leadership would do well, also. Except for the US, NATO can't even begin to protect itself.

Posted by Richard of Oregon 2008-06-20 13:11|| 2008-06-20 13:11|| Front Page Top

#4 I think NATO troops could be more effective if their govts gave them ROE that allowed them to do what they are trained to do. Maybe a hit on the Canadian would change their mindset, then again I could also picture them saying it was their fault since they followed our lead and that this is the reason they need to pullout.....

Posted by Yosemite Sam 2008-06-20 13:50|| 2008-06-20 13:50|| Front Page Top

#5 Such an act could blow up into a regional war and that might be what Iran wants. For example ... Hezbollah attacks a target in Canada, NATO invokes Article 5. Israel attacks Lebanon with massive round the clock US and French air support along with special operations forces from several NATO countries. Now Syria tries to get into the act and at some point fires at one of our planes or sends troops in to back up Hezbollah. Then we attack Syria from Iraq and the pressure on Iran's frontier with Iraq is relieved.

So you could end up with regional turmoil which is exactly what the current lunatic administration in Iran "needs" to precipitate the coming of the 12th Imam.

Note that since Chavez got caught with his hands in the FARC cookie jar, he has a special grudge right now. He is likely to offer Hezbollah any support they request for operations in North America. We could have active Hezbollah cells coming across the Southern border that we haven't detected yet. Just because we have detected activity in Canada doesn't assure that Canada is the target. There could be a wider activation that we haven't detected outside of Canada.

Might also just be a drill for activation procedures across the Hemisphere in the case of any action against Iran. Or if Israel's recent air exercise was designed to send a message to Iran, maybe this is simply designed to send a message to the West.

"Intelligence officials tell ABC News the group has activated suspected 'sleeper cells' in Canada and key operatives have been tracked moving outside the group's Lebanon base to Canada, Europe and Africa."

That would seem to mean something larger is in the works. Maybe Iran is preparing to test a nuke and is positioning assets ahead of time in case there is some kind of a response.

Posted by crosspatch 2008-06-20 14:01|| 2008-06-20 14:01|| Front Page Top

#6 It's interesting to talk about a NATO response when just yesterday the Frenchies were talking about down-sizing their military even further so as to afford any of the basics of modernization.

Outside of the US and Britain, NATO lacks an expeditionary force. There isn't a single other NATO country that could project power more than 100 miles outside their borders for more than 30 days. They simply aren't sustainable.

So while I'd like to think that Crosspatch has a point, and that a Hezbie hit in a NATO country would have serious consequences, I don't think it will happen.

And then I look at LiberalHawk's comment and say yep, that's the next step. There is NO WAY the Israelis, even Olmert in charge, will allow Hezbollah to kill Jews anywhere in the world. If the Hezbies hit a synagogue or cultural center in Canada and NATO doesn't respond, that Israeli practice air mission becomes real.

Posted by Steve White 2008-06-20 15:55|| 2008-06-20 15:55|| Front Page Top

#7 two clarifications, SW

First, I dont mean to imply thats cause Israel would NEVER let Jews be killed in the diaspora. IIRC their response to Buenos Aires WAS focused on Hezb in Lebanon, not on Iran. But now is differnt. Things are getting tenser and tenser with Iran, and a semi-overt terror act by Iran would certainly trigger a major response (though Im not sure it would be the full hit on the nuke program - not yet)

WRT - NATO 1. Several NATO countries have SOME troops that can deploy abroad - see Afghanistan - now some of thema arent fighting, (the French and germans) but thats political choice, not capacity, IIUC (though granted, in afghan they have US logistical support, but they would in the ops crosspatch envisions) 2. Im not envisioning a land op - (which I think is a mistake against Iran) It would be an air op - again it might not be the big one against the nuke program, something like a Clinton TM pinprick, though somewhat bigger, Id think. It would be mainly US, with a few others along for political symbolism, mainly.

Posted by liberalhawk 2008-06-20 16:13|| 2008-06-20 16:13|| Front Page Top

#8 and further "even Olmert"

dont rule out the possibility that the Hamas "calm" is precisely to clear the tables for something involving Iran. That the practice was the next day shouldnt be treated as mere coincidence (and no, as usual, thats not insider info, or in this case, even something I saw - pure deduction)

Posted by liberalhawk 2008-06-20 16:15|| 2008-06-20 16:15|| Front Page Top

#9 correction, i didnt realize the date of the practice was earlier

Posted by liberalhawk 2008-06-20 16:17|| 2008-06-20 16:17|| Front Page Top

#10 LH: appreciate your thoughts.

As to NATO, let's be clear that most of the NATO units in Afghanistan depend on our logistics. If the Air Transport Command and US logistics train were to go home, they'd be stuck. The Germans, French, Dutch, Italians, Spanish: none of these major NATO powers can sustain an expeditionary force, let alone the smaller countries or the new Eastern bloc countries.

Of course, when you spend less than 1.5% of your GDP on defense, one of the things you give up is logistics.

As to the idea that the Israelis are doing the truce-thang with Hamas in order to clear the decks for the Iranians, I'd like to buy that, but I'm one of the ones who thought the truce would have been broken already. And if Teheran thought the truce was going to be used this way, they wouldn't have let their poodle Hamas go for it.

But we'll see.

Posted by Steve White 2008-06-20 17:23|| 2008-06-20 17:23|| Front Page Top

#11 I suppose my point was to remind people that to attack a NATO country is to attack them all. I wasn't really so much interested in specific military scenarios. The idea being that Iran would suddenly find itself in a completely different ball game concerning any sympathy from the rest of the world concerning sanctions, tolerance for their nuclear games, etc.

Iran would be demonstrating their complete and total stupidity if they attacked any targets in a NATO country.

Posted by crosspatch 2008-06-20 17:47|| 2008-06-20 17:47|| Front Page Top

#12 If Hezballah blows something up in Canada you can expect:

- official Hezballah spokespersons will, in English and French, deny it was them

- Other Hezballah people will rejoice that it was them

- Lots of human shields will crowd around Nasrallah whereever he goes for the next few months

Posted by mhw 2008-06-20 18:24|| 2008-06-20 18:24|| Front Page Top

#13 FOX NEWS AM > RUSSIA WARNS ISRAEL NOT TO ATTACK IRAN.

IMO many Isaeli Netters recognize that ISRAEL is being contained/isolated, + MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHETHER ISRAEL JOINING NATO ANDOR US REGIONAL GMD-TMD WILL BE ENUFF TO STAVE OF A PREEMPTIVE OR "FIRST-STRIKE" MISSLE ATTACK [Ballistic + ALCM/GLCM] FROM IRAN, OR SEVERE NUCLEAR-WMD TERROR VV ISLAMIST-TERR GROUPS???

As for TERROPS IN CANADA [Mexico-Lower Americas] > NO US-IRAN WAR + PAN-ISLAMIST NUCLEARIZATION- STRATWEAPNZ = CONTAINING/ISOLAT THE USA LIKE ISRAEL ANDOR DIVERTING THEIR MILPOL ATTENTION + RESOURCES + KEEPING THE USA = USA-ALLIES OUTSIDE AND AWAY FROM NUCLEARIZING IRAN + CENASIA AMAP AFAP ASAP.

MORE BIG[GER] GOVT IN FASCIST = LIMITED COMMUNIST, etc. AMERIKA, the USA = USSA/USR, vv "TOTALITARIAN/SOCIALIST PEACE" + "UTOPIA"???

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-06-20 18:55|| 2008-06-20 18:55|| Front Page Top

#14 I'm really beginning to think it's time we went over the top in attacking Iran. I don't think it would take a week to destroy most of their army and the rag-tag air force they've got. Once they're out of the way, troops could be sent on a special op to take the Natanz facility out completely.

Destroy it, and the Iranian power plant at Bushehr, and break a few more things. Particularly make it a point to wipe their electrical generating and petroleum refining capacity absolutely slick. Then walk away and leave them to clean up the mess. No occupation, no aid. Just smash their society and leave them to sit in the rubble in the dark.

Make the parting comment that if they screw up again, we'll be back but that next time it won't be with troops, it will be with nukes--and that afterward "Iran" will be described on new world maps as "the radioactive wasteland formerly known as Iran."

Posted by Thaimble Scourge of the Pixies4707 2008-06-20 19:18|| 2008-06-20 19:18|| Front Page Top

#15 See also TOPIX > IRAN IS COUNTING ON OBAMA, MISSLES, AND DIPLOMACY TO STOP ISRAELI OR AMERICAN ATTACKS/STRIKES ON ITS NUCLEAR SITES; + CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR [CSM]> IRAN WILL STRIKE BACK UNCONVENTIONALLY IN A SHOOTING WAR AGZ THE US. CSM - Iran's response will likely be more unpredictable than Al Qaeda's, and also in similar/parallel scale or magnitude to any unilater US action.

Also from TOPIX > THE CCP [Chinese Communist Party] AND SYRIA'S NUKES - AN OMINOUS WARNING. General summary of China's original and continuing support for ANTI-US TERRORISM + RADICALIST/XTREMIST GROUPS.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-06-20 21:02|| 2008-06-20 21:02|| Front Page Top

23:55 RD
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