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2006-06-19 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Steve 2006-06-19 08:39|| || Front Page|| [11135 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Cuban Missile Crisis, the sequel. Watch, see how long before Iranian missiles are based with the troops. Israel won't tolerate this

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-06-19 08:56|| 2006-06-19 08:56|| Front Page Top

#2 Syria is placing itself in great peril.
It has three neighbors that don't like the regime, won't tolerate Iranian RG troops near their borders and who each have the military forces to crush the Syrian army - Isral, Turkey and the US (Iraqi bases).

Posted by john 2006-06-19 09:40|| 2006-06-19 09:40|| Front Page Top

#3 The only thing elite about the RG is the fact they are loyal to the mullahs. Israel will make very short work of those wannabes.

Posted by DarthVader 2006-06-19 09:43|| 2006-06-19 09:43|| Front Page Top

#4 Israel has a history of pre-emptive attack when enemies are massing against them. Traditionally they wouldn't wait to be attacked. I would be very,VERY, carefull If I were Iran and Syria. They may lose even more territory if they don't watch themselves.

Posted by bigjim-ky 2006-06-19 10:12|| 2006-06-19 10:12|| Front Page Top

#5 An interesting chessmatch being played out.

Iran knows that US patience is wearing thin with both the EU/UNSC effort and the limited timeline before Iran goes nuclear.

They also know that the US has mid-term elections and, given the situation in Iraq, the American voters aren't eager for another confrontation right now.

Meantime, what better way to inflame Muslims and align the Muslim dominated countries (i.e., Saudi oil) to its side than to taunt Israel into a confrontation. For instance, which side does Jordan take?

Posted by Captain America 2006-06-19 10:27|| 2006-06-19 10:27|| Front Page Top

#6 A wild guess on my part but it sounds so much like the Cuban Missile Crisis I wouldn't be suprised if Syria gets some Iranian Nukes out of the deal.

Posted by 3dc 2006-06-19 11:03|| 2006-06-19 11:03|| Front Page Top

#7 Or Israel could force the issue by threatening to invade Syria. The US could conclude that this is a potential disaster for perceptions of the US in the muslim world, so the US would invade Syria just to remove the threat of an Israeli invasion. Nasty situation for the US, victory for the Iranians by tying down more US forces that could be invading Iran. Of course it doesn't do the Syrians much good, but I get the feeling baby Assad isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer.

Posted by Jonathan">Jonathan 2006-06-19 11:19|| 2006-06-19 11:19|| Front Page Top

#8 The fourth Syrian neighbor, Lebanon, shouldn't be discounted. They could do two things to put Syria in a hole, particularly if done in concert with Israel (informally, of course): 1) crack down on the Paleos and 2) 'allow' their air space to be used by Israel.

Michael Totten has written a fair bit on how the Lebanese don't see Israel as an enemy, and in fact would like nothing better than good relations with Israel and the Syrians out of their country. This is true not only for the Maronites but also for the Druze and even a lot of the Shi'a. Seems that close contact with the Syrians has led to a fair bit of contempt. It's the famous Assad charm, methinks.

Israel moving north and northeast, Lebanon quietly cooperating, Jordan sitting on its hands, Turkey providing quiet help from its border, and US troops doing 'hot pursuit' from Iraq -- all spells the end for Doc Assa.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2006-06-19 11:32|| 2006-06-19 11:32|| Front Page Top

#9 Israel could force the issue by threatening to invade Syria

When Turkey threated to invade Syria, Assad backed down real fast, closing down the training camps.

Posted by john 2006-06-19 12:03|| 2006-06-19 12:03|| Front Page Top

#10 The proverbial Kick Me sticker on Syrias back.

Posted by Throlump Thromoth7510 2006-06-19 12:20|| 2006-06-19 12:20|| Front Page Top

#11 in the years before the 6 day war, Israel considered the deployment of Iraqi or KSA forces to Jordan a potential threat and casus belli, but that was with a very insecure border. I doubt very much that division of RG troops would threaten todays much stronger Israeli position on the Golan, enought to provoke a preemptive war.

IF its true that RG are going to Syria, its MUCH more likely that the purpose is to intervene in internal Syrian affairs, to provide the regime with a loyal body guard at a time when loyalties are in flux.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-06-19 14:50|| 2006-06-19 14:50|| Front Page Top

#12 I tend to agree with LH though I suppose that Iran may simply be trying to increase the potential cost of a move against Hezbollah by Israel that might come in conjunction with any move against the nuke sites.

Still, this sounds like typical dramatic spin by Debka on something that's been happening for a while. I saw an interesting post about a month ago by Michael Totten but cannot find th link. It showed observation towers built by Hezbollah on the border and included interviews with Israeli soldiers describing their uses. It's clear Iran already has an electronic presence near Israel for monitoring purposes.

Posted by JAB 2006-06-19 15:02|| 2006-06-19 15:02|| Front Page Top

#13 I'm a little puzzled. There is no way for Iranian troops to get to Syria by land without passing through Iraq or Turkey, unlikely to happen. Iraq doesn't have the airlift to move a significant number of troops and again, a look at the map says they couldn't do that without Jordan and Saudi permission. The only other approach is sealift through the Suez canal. I think this is more of the Arab / Persian propensity for grandiloquent prose than a real threat.

Posted by RWV 2006-06-19 16:09|| 2006-06-19 16:09|| Front Page Top

#14 RWV, civil planes airlift, or shipping the RG troops through Suez... perhaps both, troops by air and gear through shipping.

Posted by zazz 2006-06-19 22:58|| 2006-06-19 22:58|| Front Page Top

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