Article

2006-05-20 Southeast Asia

Bird Flu Fatality Rate in Humans Climbs to 64% as Virus Spreads

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Posted by phil_b 2006-05-20 16:51|| || Front Page|| [6 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 In a region with three billion plus people, just over 200 caes of any illness is only significant to the people who had it.

Indonesia is driving up the death rate through poor existing health care and a general inablitiy to get their act together. It is currently the only place where cases are still happening.

The real "mystery" is why there have been no cases in the "bird flu gap", those nations between Irag and Southeast Asia. My guess, being a suspicious SOB, is that there are cases in Iran, Pakistan, India and Burma but the governments are unwilling or unable to do anything about them.

The news ignores the hundreds of thousands of people who died of influenza during the normal season. Avian flu pales in comparison to the normal death rate from influenza.

Posted by Chuck Simmins">Chuck Simmins 2006-05-20 19:34|| http://blog.simmins.org]">[http://blog.simmins.org] 2006-05-20 19:34|| Front Page Top

#2 think China wouldn't be honest? For shame!

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-05-20 20:02|| 2006-05-20 20:02|| Front Page Top

#3 imagine if nobody died of any disease and we all lived to 80 and died in our beds.

Nahh, bring on the plagues.

After all, we need a bit of evolution in our lives.

nature must be allowed to kill some of the weak

Posted by anon1 2006-05-20 21:44|| 2006-05-20 21:44|| Front Page Top

#4 Making the world safe for processed meat, Tyson Foods Corps, labor unions, and the Democratic Party based in Clintonian Arkansas and Clintonian SSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHH SOCIALIST America. Whom will do the same for Hillary and Naw Yawk BEEF, D*** You!?

Posted by JosephMendiola 2006-05-20 22:41|| 2006-05-20 22:41|| Front Page Top

#5 Chuck: The behavior of avian flu is extraordinarily dangerous. We can work from the assumption that it will enter the human population within the next two or three years, and depending on circumstances, it will behave like this:

First, some small town or village will be hit, and there will most likely be a quick and overwhelming response. Many of the people will die, despite getting serious attention. But then it will stop.

Second, the worldwide alert will result in some initial panic, but then a length of time will pass with no new infections, and there will be confidence that the epidemic has been averted.

Third, there will be a few isolated cases in the region within the extreme range of the incubation period, and they will be carefully managed. They will seemingly defy any rational order, though, and keep appearing.

Fourth, a major city will suddenly have an explosive outbreak. Thousands will become sick and thousands more will flee, taking the disease with them.

From this point on the disease has become "endemic", and even entire country quarantines will be useless. The pandemic will begin in earnest.

More densely populated countries, with least public health availability and the lowest levels of public knowledge of cleanliness and hygiene will suffer the greatest casualties.

One of the top epidemologists at the WHO estimated that as many as 300M people will die, based on the known mortality rate at the time, and the severe lung damage associated with those that survive, which will cause many secondary fatalities.

His estimation was officially withdrawn by the non-scientific management of the WHO, who declared without any data that the official worst case worldwide mortality estimate is only 3M.

However, assuming his scientific estimation was correct at the time, the estimated mortality total may be far higher today. This is because of several new factors:

1) The known mortality is "actual", not estimated. There are no known cases of "mild" avian flu, which is quite extraordinary. So if a given person gets the disease, there is at least a 50% chance that they will die.

2) Previous estimates of mortality were mostly based on estimates from the Spanish flu (H1N1) of 1918. That disease has been genetically re-created. There is no immunity to it in any living person, so it only takes a fraction of the amount of virus an ordinary flu would take to cause an infection. The H5N1 virus is also far more communicable, yet its lethality is perhaps 40% greater than H1N1.

3) Incubation period for avian flu is the optimal two weeks for maximum spread of the disease. It begins with ordinary flu symptoms, allowing the infected person many days to spread the disease before becoming incapacitated.

4) World demographics and transportation are such that speed of transmission between major population centers takes place over days, not many months. In many major Asian cities, infection rates could exceed 70% of the population.

5) The US is far more fortunate, with our major cities experiencing perhaps 30% infection rates. At this level, intensive emergency medical and government intervention can significantly curtail the spread of the disease. Public notification and education about hygiene, travel restrictions and general underpopulation will act as effective "fire breaks".

That being said, the US may experience as many as 30M fatalities, or 1/10th of our population. The disease will hit in two major waves, abating for a while then reoccuring. Of the 30M, about half will die from cytokine storm in the lungs, and the lesser half from a combination of lung damage and gradual organ necrosis due to oxygen deprivation.

It is also important to note that many domestic birds and mammals may also suffer horrific losses. Food animals and pets may be severely impacted, and act as counter-vectors with people to maintain the epidemic. Other animals may have to be massively culled because they carry the disease and can spread it without dying.

The US medical system operates on a "push" basis, with very little surplus in the case of emergencies. As a critical example, we have about 100,000 ventilators nationwide to assist in breathing problems. In a normal flu season, only 2,000 of these are surplus. Almost all other supplies have similar critical limitations.

Six months after we have obtained a sample of the H2H-transmitted avian flu, we will have been able to produce only 30M vaccine doses. That means that for the first major wave of influenza, the "old rules" for epidemics will be used.

That is, vaccination emphasis will be on school aged children, the #1 human vector, and to isolate any outbreaks and vaccinate everyone in the vicintity as quickly as possible.

Posted by Anonymoose 2006-05-20 23:11|| 2006-05-20 23:11|| Front Page Top

#6 "We can work from the assumption that it will enter the human population within the next two or three years"
But why would we work from such an assumption? Are we finished with the ebola or anthrax or West Nile or SARS scares yet?

Posted by Darrell 2006-05-20 23:58|| 2006-05-20 23:58|| Front Page Top

09:52 bk
23:59 Redneck Jim
23:59 DMFD
23:58 Darrell
23:58 mhw
23:49 Redneck Jim
23:44 Bangkok Billy
23:39 SOP35/Rat
23:20 bigjim-ky
23:18 Old Patriot
23:15 bigjim-ky
23:11 Anonymoose
23:04 Frank G
23:00 Manolo
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22:56 junkirony
22:53 JosephMendiola
22:50 JosephMendiola
22:49 Manolo
22:45 Frank G
22:41 JosephMendiola
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22:34 Frank G
22:33 Frank G