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2005-09-18 Britain

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Posted by Steve White 2005-09-18 00:44|| || Front Page|| [4 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Getting ready to do Iran then

Posted by War supporter 2005-09-18 03:48|| 2005-09-18 03:48|| Front Page Top

#2 Yeah, I wondered about that too. or, at a minimum, countering Iranian provocateurs and forces in southern Iraq.

Posted by Omerens Omaigum2983 2005-09-18 06:11|| 2005-09-18 06:11|| Front Page Top

#3 A telling point will be if the US starts quietly bringing in large amounts of heavy armor. While the Strykers have shown themselves to be good, having Abrams tanks waiting in the wings is just warm and fuzzy.
Other things to look for are a major increase in the number of anti-missile batteries in both Iraq with several in western Afghanistan.

I still suspect that we are waiting for Iran to make the first major move, such as launching a salvo of missiles, some nuclear, most likely targetting a US fleet. First of all, their military would demand the first attack be against the most major threat. Second, they believe we will attack them with the same strategy as Gulf War I, in which more than half the air attack was done from naval forces.

This could be done in concert with having their armies on the Iraq border advance, or just trying to form an effective defense against an American ground attack.

It could also include missiles directed at other targets as well, in a "Hail Mary" approach. The US will also have to assume that they plan for several missile salvos, so our regional anti-missile defenses will have to be significant, including Patriot batteries, aircraft energy weapons and ship defenses. Iran could also work with North Korea for both to launch attacks simultaneously.

Surprisingly, I do not think they will attack Tel Aviv at first. While they detest Israel, they fear the US, and figure if they drive the US from the region, Israel will be an afterthought.

If the US is going to use a counter-punch technique against Iranian aggression, it will have thoroughly coordinated its strategy with the other nuclear powers, to minimize the risk of escalation. It will have given them a list of a dozen or more likely scenarios the US has war-gamed, along with indications of possible US responses.

There is no concern that these plans may be given to the Iranians, in fact, we would prefer that they knew that *we* were on to their little tricks, and can not only effectively counter them but consistently defeat them in every scenario.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-09-18 12:20|| 2005-09-18 12:20|| Front Page Top

#4 you have way too much time on your hands Anonymoose

Posted by shellback 2005-09-18 18:51|| 2005-09-18 18:51|| Front Page Top

#5 That was really interesting, Anonymoose!

It's bothering me though, that we have removed the regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan but not remade the countries as complete friendlies.

We would be so much further on the way to winning the WOT if those countries had western-friendly leadership and western-friendly policies such as banning Islamist mullahs, compulsory secular schooling for boys and girls, etc. Some of the philosophical underpinnings that would weaken extemist Islamism and drag them into the 21st century.

I think the lack of will to remake a broken society (fear of being hated as imperialists?) is holding back the WOT.

Posted by anon1 2005-09-18 23:06|| 2005-09-18 23:06|| Front Page Top

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