Article

2005-05-30 Europe

France says 'no' to EU constitution, plunging Europe into crisis

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Posted by Fred 2005-05-30 00:00|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Now, if Britain will go ahead and reject the constitution from it's end...we'll be back to square one and normal for everybody...fend for yourselves!!

Posted by smn 2005-05-30 00:30|| 2005-05-30 00:30|| Front Page Top

#2 Nooooo its the Apocalypse(tm) !!!

Posted by Valentine 2005-05-30 01:25|| 2005-05-30 01:25|| Front Page Top

#3 "Damn, haven't felt this European in a long time."

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2005-05-30 03:29|| 2005-05-30 03:29|| Front Page Top

#4 Do yourself a favour: watch "Casablanca". It is a wonderful movie, it has Ingrid Bergman at the height of her beauty, the cynical and bitter Bogart we love, an outstanding Claude Rains making a study in chutzpah, superb dialogs, superb music. Everything. But it has also the most moving Marseillaise I ever heard: I still have tears in my eyes whenever I watch the movie.

Funny that the best Marseilise ever sung is in an American movie. :-)

For the unitiated here it is my own translation

Forward sons of the fatherland
The day of glory has come
Against us, tiranny has raised its blood-stained standard
raised its blood-stained standard
Do you hear in our countrylands roar (1) those ferocious soldiers?
They come until our very our own arms to slit the throats of our sons and consorts"

To arms, citizens, form your batallions
Let's march, Let's march.
Let impure blood water our furroughs"

(1) In fact the proper translation would be the howl of a bull (in french it is also used for the sound of very strong winds or torrents). Since I don't know the proper word I changed it into roar

(2) And don't forget about the following verses extracted from parts who are no longer sung:

What! These foreign cohorts!
They would make laws in our courts

and those two

The vile despots would have themselves be
The masters of our destiny

Posted by JFM">JFM 2005-05-30 06:22|| 2005-05-30 06:22|| Front Page Top

#5 France says 'no' to EU constitution, plunging Europe into crisis

Push harder!

Posted by gromgorru 2005-05-30 06:57|| 2005-05-30 06:57|| Front Page Top

#6 WWI was a crisis. WWII was a crisis. The only people for whom this could be a crisis is those who [like the previously cited crisis] consider themselves to be the ruling elite. Non!
For everyone else there's Mastercard. Priceless.

Posted by Cravimble Snaique5194 2005-05-30 08:40|| 2005-05-30 08:40|| Front Page Top

#7 and our disillusioned lil' Greek conscript....

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2005-05-30 09:17|| 2005-05-30 09:17|| Front Page Top

#8 Power Line has a map that shows the votes. Note it's just a few big cities that voted Oui, plus nearly all of Brittany.

Any ideas on Brittany?

Posted by Jackal">Jackal 2005-05-30 09:34|| home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html]">[home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html] 2005-05-30 09:34|| Front Page Top

#9 she's pregnant

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2005-05-30 09:49|| 2005-05-30 09:49|| Front Page Top

#10 Note also that French overseas territories were at the extremes of the Oui voting areas. Seems the French Government's efforts in that respect paid off.

Any ideas on Brittany?

I'm just guessing, but I'd assume that it's a celtic thing. The EU is more popular in those parts of the UK that regard themselves celtic as opposed to anglo-saxon for a couple of reasons: i) more high-profile EU investment (actually it's entirely British money - the EU re-invests a fraction of what we pay in back here - but that's not the point: the EU puts it logo where it can) on infrastructure in such areas, but mainly ii) they tend to regard anything which weakens the national Governemnt to be a good thing. In Britain the celtic Scottish and Welsh tend to regard themselves as put-upon (simply because they're minorities and in marvellous disregard for the reality - higher public spending per capita and (scandalously, to a principled democrat) much higher representation in the Parliamentary system) and would happily subsume themselves to an even more democratically deficient system just because it means their more numerous neighbours will also suffer. I suspect the Bretons think the same way. The Bretons may also think they have benfitted from the EU's fisheries policies (I do not know, and, notably, their British brethren have been repeatedly hammered by the EU in that respect).

It's interesting to note though that the Basques seem to have voted more according to the national norm.

Posted by Bulldog ">Bulldog 2005-05-30 10:03|| 2005-05-30 10:03|| Front Page Top

#11 As I said in my other post - this is not over and won't be for awhile. But bye, bye, Jacques and Hello, Nick! Other good news? Euro falls, imports cheaper, less travel expense to those going over the pond this year. Also, probably less anti-americanism in the press for a while since they need print space to sauvage le president.

Posted by Jack is Back!">Jack is Back! 2005-05-30 10:21|| 2005-05-30 10:21|| Front Page Top

#12 Bulldog

You are infering too much.

There are three regions who voted for the YES: "Ile de France" aka the parisian region. Brittany and Alsace

Alsace is home of the Strasbourg parliament, so it is normal that they are for the YES since this means jobs and the name of Strasbourg being known through thge world (BTW: the Haut-Rhin captal Colamr was far less pro-Yes than the Bas-Rhin captal Strasbourg.

Brittany voted YES because it has ever been more to the right (but with a weaker far right) than most of France and the right is massively pro-YES specially after Chirac "converting" to europeism and forcing the previously patriotic gaullist party into a pro-Europe one in order to get the support of the centrists.

And then there is the Parisian region. Well this is the home of this arrogant French aristocracy who think of itself as the natural ruler of the world and look to other French with contempt and to foreigners as untermenschen. It was natural they would be for what they see as an instrument of power projaction (the EU). It is also the home turf of "Le Monde" and similar pillars of pro-europeism and anti-americanism (for them Americans are usurpers of the throne who belongs legitimally to the French elite). Now when we look district by district a thing who immediately apparent is that the ones who voted massively for the YES were the blue blood districts folowed closely by the districts of the "Bourgeois Bohemes" (roughly equivalent to the Tranzis in San Francisco's bay area) while the blue collar districts voted for the NO (less strongly than in equivalent parts in other regions France because the "parisians are the best" spirit has permeated them.

Posted by JFM">JFM 2005-05-30 10:50|| 2005-05-30 10:50|| Front Page Top

#13 Thanks for shining some light on that, JFM.

What about the overseas dependencies? What exactly were they promised in return for helping the Yes to win? (Besides enough copies of the constitution to keep tapir meat protected from flies for years to come...)

Posted by Bulldog ">Bulldog 2005-05-30 11:52|| 2005-05-30 11:52|| Front Page Top

#14 The slights are going out all over Europe. I doubt they'll sneeze again in our lifetime.

Posted by Wilson Shipman 2005-05-30 13:03|| 2005-05-30 13:03|| Front Page Top

#15 The arrogance of the Eurocrats is incredible.
"The ratification process must go on."
The rules say if one country refuses the Constitution, it's dead.

This is like continuing a penalty shootout in soccer because all players should have a chance to score.

Ever heard of sudden death?

Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-30 13:04|| 2005-05-30 13:04|| Front Page Top

#16 Well they never heard of that in Brussels, football is for the uneducated and unwashed. The new regals intend to ram this down every europeans throat no matter what. At some point it may become necessary to march on Brussels and toss them all out.

The plain fact is the people got it right, for all the wrong reasons, but right never the less.

Posted by Sock Puppet 0â Doom 2005-05-30 13:30|| 2005-05-30 13:30|| Front Page Top

#17 Ever heard of sudden death?

Here's to hoping Wednesday's second barrel blast courtesy of the Dutch knocks this zombie down for good...

Posted by Bulldog ">Bulldog 2005-05-30 13:33|| 2005-05-30 13:33|| Front Page Top

#18 Readign the quotes from various nations leaders it appear they will not accept Non for an answer. Pretty sick. According to the "constitution" it's dead yet these "leaders" will not admit it.

Posted by Sock Puppet 0â Doom 2005-05-30 13:54|| 2005-05-30 13:54|| Front Page Top

#19 Not entirely good news for US interests. OTOH, it's pretty clear that the EU eilte will finally heed the concerns of the EU public and focus more on internal problems. Which means less attention and resources for grands projets in the international sphere, not only but especially the attempt to challenge the US in areas and regions that have no impact on the EU's growth rate or its ability to protect jobs.

OTOH, where EU foreign policy can indeed protect jobs by bashing the US, we can expect more Gaullism, more German hyperbole about US "bloodsucker" capitalists and the like. So all in all, I think this means less EU meddling in the middle east and less pretentious rhetoric and posturing as the "moral superpower" (Kyoto, debt relief, bashing Israel etc) but also a distinct turn toward both protectionism, esp in the service sectors, and toward much more aggressive trade promotion of big ticket items sold to third world governments like Airbus planes, construction projects by Bouygues, telecom and auto plants etc.

In short, whereas the EU foreign policy used to be a mix of short-term opportunism and more fundamental idealism, the balance now will be very sharply tilted toward opportunism. Less irritating, but not necessarily less harmful to US policy, esp re Iran and China.

This is very, very bad news for cooperation with the EU vs the mullahs. The pressure on France and Germany to get a quick boost to exports by caving in to the mullahs will now be intense. Ditto for EU military exports to China.

Posted by thibaud (aka lex) 2005-05-30 14:25|| 2005-05-30 14:25|| Front Page Top

#20 Of course NOBODY in German would dare to utter these words but...

Germany may be the biggest winner of the NON. The unholy alliance with France has been seriously jeopardized and Germany will look for other, more reliable partners to build Europe, but now as the only big shot left. German exports to Eastern Europe have been booming and many smaller European states do want a more united Europe to affirm themselves. In a few months we'll have a chancellor who is much more in touch with "New Europe"... and will build closer alliances with those countries... plus strengthen the transatlantic ties.
Europe will not die, but it will change. It will be more free market, more pro American, less pro Muslim.
France will sink into relative irrelevance.. only a real strong new president can bring it back.
Chirac will go down in history as worst president ever... and take Schroeder with him.
We can have a new start.

Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-30 16:27|| 2005-05-30 16:27|| Front Page Top

#21 Good to hear TGA. Europe needs a strong, stable and productive Germany. Kinda like a bridge between the east and west. France really isn't needed anymore as a powerful country in europe. With England and Germany taking those spots, nothing much remains for the Phrench.

Posted by mmurray821 2005-05-30 17:06|| 2005-05-30 17:06|| Front Page Top

#22 congrats TGA. We hope it works out for the best.

Posted by 2b 2005-05-30 17:12|| 2005-05-30 17:12|| Front Page Top

#23 TGA I will of course hope for the best for Germany but I put nothing past the Reds or the Greens to try and stay in power.

Posted by Sock Puppet 0â Doom 2005-05-30 20:23|| 2005-05-30 20:23|| Front Page Top

#24 The difference of perception...

This document defined what one could do, what the states could do, what the EU could do and EVERYTHING ELSE WAS ILLEGAL. That is a document of failure.

Its better to define the rules of engagement and what's illegal. Assume all else is legal or OK unless laws are written to specificly proscribe something.

Look at it this way. Imagine a constitution such has the US one. Paint it as a black tree and insert it in a 4D landscape of all possible activities and situations. The constitution is an artifact in this 4-space. Now consider what the EU constitution attempted to do. It attempted to make a mold around the tree. To define the 4D landscape not to define the tree. That is an exercise designed to fail. Its too hard to do!

Posted by 3dc 2005-05-30 21:41|| 2005-05-30 21:41|| Front Page Top

#25 TGA, I'm hopeful on your end, but won't that require a more public split with France? (That is, for thibaud/lex to be wrong at least in whether Germany follows along with French opportunism.)

Posted by Edward Yee">Edward Yee 2005-05-30 22:44|| http://edwardyee.fanworks.net]">[http://edwardyee.fanworks.net] 2005-05-30 22:44|| Front Page Top

#26 I hope TGA is right but let's consider the reality of France and Germany's economic situation: growth is weak in France, and almost nonexistent in Germany. Unemployment is at crisis levels, with no end in sight. Above all, the EU's own "stability pact" foolishly obliges these two nations to adhere, or at least make a semblance of adhering, to root canal monetary policies. Add to this a strong euro and you have a situation that no one short of a ruthless ballbuster like Thatcher can turn around.

Imagine you're in Merkel's shoes this autumn. How will you grow the GErman economy? You can't stimulate domestic demand because there's no flexibility, either of labor ie supply or of retail and other consumer demand. You can't sell more to the greatest market of all, the US, because the strong euro prices you out of many markets and declining German manufacturing quality is eroding your competitive position in other markets.

The only, and I mean only, near term fix is in sales to third world government customers of the high-ticket items where government lobbying can close the sale. I'll bet any sum that Germany will very aggressively push for an easy line with Iran, and that both France and Germany will seek to scrap the ban on military exports to China. Their leaders' political survival depends on winning those contracts.

Posted by thibaud (aka lex) 2005-05-30 23:16|| 2005-05-30 23:16|| Front Page Top

23:32 .com
23:16 thibaud (aka lex)
23:03 Sobiesky
22:57 muck4doo
22:55 R
22:46 Jackal
22:44 Edward Yee
22:18 Frank G
21:57 Ptah
21:51 .com
21:49 James
21:47 Crineper Speresh7329
21:44 .com
21:41 3dc
21:40 Crineper Speresh7329
21:35 Thraing Hupoluper1864
21:34 Grunter
21:30 .com
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21:25 anonymous2u
21:24 Sock Puppet 0â Doom
21:21 anonymous2u
21:14 Frank G
21:10 john