The tsunami disaster that struck Aceh could change the dynamics of the long-running conflict there between government forces and pro-independence fighters - but only if the relief effort is well handled. If it isn't, resentment of Acehnese toward the central government could increase, and we could all be back to square one. Aceh has a proud history of resisting outside rule. * * * Last September, the Indonesian military claimed that since martial law, it had killed 2,879 Gam members, arrested 1,798 and accepted the surrender of 1,954. * * * The tsunami hit only a few months into the presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who promised during his campaign to look for non-military solutions to Aceh. But he put no new ideas on the table and, in November, he extended the state of emergency in Aceh for another six months. * * * The relief and reconstruction efforts now underway will help keep Aceh open, and this in turn will likely lead to pressure for an end to the emergency. It will not lead to negotiations with the rebels, because the military is dead set against the idea, convinced that talking is a sign of weakness, that it gives Gam legitimacy that it does not deserve, and that it would undo all its efforts to crush the insurgency by force. Can military operations and a state of emergency co-exist with a huge international relief effort without running into serious friction? If the Indonesian military continue to work alongside relief agencies and cannot separate its humanitarian and counterinsurgency roles, it could undermine what should be the apolitical nature of humanitarian relief. * * * In many parts of Aceh, dissatisfaction with the government tends to lead to support for Gam, despite the latter's none-too-stellar record on human rights. If the government does not get in place a smooth machine for delivering aid, we are going to have anger at Jakarta, and in some areas, a new rationale for recruitment into the insurgency. The problem is that the same old government institutions, mired in corruption, incompetence and inertia, have been mobilized for a task that is larger than they have ever had to handle before, and it is not clear that they are up to the job. This disaster has created opportunities for conflict resolution. The question is whether anyone will seize them.

Laksamana.Net -- President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on Monday (10/1/05) met with the ambassadors of Britain, Japan, Libya, Singapore, Sweden and the US to hear their views on how to resolve the separatist conflict in Aceh, said a senior government official. * * * “The Indonesian government actually wants to resolve the Aceh problem directly with GAM, but the obstacle is that its leaders are in Sweden. So we have asked the Swedish ambassador to pass on this message,” Yusril was quoted as saying by detikcom online news portal. * * * five rebel negotiators survived the devastating December 26 earthquake and tsunamis as they had recently been transferred to jails in Java, whereas hundreds of other rebels detained in Aceh were killed when the gigantic waves destroyed their prisons. * * * There are hopes that Yudhoyono will be more successful than his predecessor Megawati Sukarnpoputri in bringing peace to Aceh. Yudhoyono was Megawati’s chief security minister when Indonesia signed a short-lived truce with GAM in December 2002. * * *