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2004-11-22 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

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Posted by The Caucasus Nerd 2004-11-22 1:51:37 AM|| || Front Page|| [11131 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Much of what you say is hard to dispute, Nerd, but I'm puzzled by the narrow facts of the news hook here. There'd be no need for a quid pro quo to have Russia restore some level of commercial arms activity with Iraq. The Russians will sell, the Iraqis will buy using their own $$$. At the very most this would represent a small favor by the US towards Moscow, though possibly not even that. Don't see why there'd be any horse-trading WRT the former Soviet mess, er, empire.

I'd say in the longer run it's a vital US interest to keep Ukraine and Russia apart to some extent, though right now that's not vital given Russia's weakness. Apart from that, enough stability (under Moscow's influence or otherwise) to facilitate extraction of energy resources from the Caspian basin is about the only important national interest in the FSU (leaving aside the negative interests, like no proliferation of WMD personnel, materials, or know-how).

Posted by Verlaine 2004-11-22 9:52:29 AM|| 2004-11-22 9:52:29 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 I suspect that, if true, this involves a LOT more than Central Asia and Iraq. It would most likely also include the upcoming amusements with Iran, and probably several other situations.

Posted by Anonymoose 2004-11-22 10:17:00 AM|| 2004-11-22 10:17:00 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Iran and the FSU's stocks of WMD are the key here. Everything else is insignificant by comparison. Our Russia policy should be geared above all to stop them from doing harm by aiding Iran. Achieve that, and halt proliferation, and we're successful.

Posted by lex 2004-11-22 11:32:38 AM|| 2004-11-22 11:32:38 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Our Russia policy should be geared above all to stop them from doing harm by aiding Iran.

I don't think Russia cares, and I wouldn't be concerned about it either. It's just business. Russia is not the only source in the world for nuclear technology. But whether or not Iran is allowed to have nukes is up to the US & Israel to decide. Not Russia's problem. Why not cash in before the door shuts permanently (and before the festivities begin)? Also remember the famed Russian GPS jammers. Great businessmen, those Russians, heh.

Posted by Rafael 2004-11-22 2:18:35 PM|| 2004-11-22 2:18:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Russia is not the only source in the world for nuclear technology

But that's only the tip of the iceberg. If Russian nuclear businessmen are doing legitimate business with Iran, you can be sure that rogue FSB and mafiya elements are not far behind.

And yes, Putin does indeed care about winning multi-billion dollar contracts for his nuke industry. Aside from arms and nukes, there simply are no other export-quality Russian manufactured products. Russia has a tiny economy apart from oil and gas, and any increase in nuke or arms business is huge to them. Buy them off. $5B should do the trick.

Posted by lex 2004-11-22 2:23:44 PM|| 2004-11-22 2:23:44 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 I would not be comfortable with anything other than C.O.D., lex. The Soviets were past masters at "pay us to negotiate", and Putin trained up in the old school.

Posted by trailing wife 2004-11-22 7:50:20 PM|| 2004-11-22 7:50:20 PM|| Front Page Top

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