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2004-08-30 Home Front: Politix

Current EV projection: Bush - 284, Kerry - 254

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Posted by Dar 2004-08-30 15:27|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 It's been awhile since ol' Bloggin-Caeser had Bush ahead!

Posted by BigEd 2004-08-30 3:29:35 PM|| 2004-08-30 3:29:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 Still to early to take it seriously...

Posted by Fred 2004-08-30 4:53:46 PM|| 2004-08-30 4:53:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 Agreed, but with just a little over two months to go, the RNC starting today, and the recent trend (zero bounce for Kerry after the DNC and upward bounce for Bush with the Swift Vet ads), it's encouraging. PA is now teetering on the brink of falling into the Bush camp, too.

Posted by Dar 2004-08-30 4:59:10 PM|| 2004-08-30 4:59:10 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 13 states moving up a notch for Bush and none moving up for Kerry does seem to indicate a trend. Bush also does this with less than 50% of the popular vote. If he gets anywhere near Fair's estimate this looks like an EC landslide.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-08-30 8:02:32 PM|| 2004-08-30 8:02:32 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 KEy states:

Ohio
Pennsylvania
Florida

Bush has to nail those down.

Colorado
Virginia
Missouri
Wisconsin
Michigan

Bush needs to get the majority of these.

New Mexico
Maine
West Virgnia
Iowa

These would be good pickups but a not worth spending too much effort on.

None of the rest of the states are likely to budge either way. Although if California moves into the 6% range in difference, Bush maybe could go for the jugular, placing Kerry on defensive out there.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-08-30 9:12:32 PM|| 2004-08-30 9:12:32 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Newsmax is reporting this from a Zogby poll.

President George W. Bush is favored by 25 points over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (35% to 10%) among undecided likely voters when Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates are factored into the 2004 presidential race, according to a new Zogby/Williams Identity poll.

Posted by AF Lady 2004-08-30 9:13:11 PM|| 2004-08-30 9:13:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 Zogby is a self seleted sample (i.e. you choose to take it), which is adjusted to "balance" it.

In other words, Zogby, for better or worse is unreliable and should be discounted.

Read Dale's ECB for a solid electoral breakdown - the guy has great methodology, and if anything, very slightly errs to the side of Kerry in granting "tossups".

He has it Kerry: 211 to 191, with the rest well inside the margin of error, and granting the close ones to each candidate, he has it Kerry 259 to 250 with Colorado and Ohio not awarded to either side.

Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio are becoming crucial for Bush. The counts above give FLorida to Bush, Penn to Kerry, and Ohio neutral - if Bush can win Ohio as things stand now, he wins the election. If he fails on Ohio, he loses. Colorado is just icing on the cake compared to Ohio, Penn and Fla.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-08-30 9:36:13 PM|| 2004-08-30 9:36:13 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 Great link, OS - Thx!

Posted by .com 2004-08-30 9:40:04 PM|| 2004-08-30 9:40:04 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 So much can and will happen until November...

Posted by True German Ally 2004-08-30 9:50:46 PM|| 2004-08-30 9:50:46 PM|| Front Page Top

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