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2004-06-27 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-06-27 2:54:11 AM|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 A few observations:

Re: Expats leaving Saudi
I have received an answer to my query regards how many are leaving. Well, the number at this moment is surprisingly low: approx 150 resignations were turned in this month (June) - maybe only 2x or 3x normal attrition rate. This strikes me as the norm - people want to complete their tours, realize their plans / dreams, etc. and will only abandon them under truly dire duress. But it seems that a huge number of the men are returning with the families on "repat" visits this summer and the rumor is that all will be looking for alternative work while home. Additionally, the common "meme" is that one or two more strikes of any kind in SA (And who believes that it won't happen - in spite of Saudi pronouncements?) will result in a flood. My friend says that there is little doubt that the year-end numbers will be "very large." For what it's worth.

Everyone loves David Warren. Except me, it seems. He gets so much right (i.e. Izzies "losing materially on almost every front") and then draws conclusions contrary to the facts. Mebbe there's some "magic" in the equation I missed.

1) He doesn't know dick about oil transport facilities. They can be defended and repaired - in days or weeks. Iraq's contribution to the world supply is still marginal - recent disruptions proved the point in barely upticking the price. Attacks on oil facilities in Iraq will decline as the Iraqis realize that they're not "occupied" anymore and that the Iranian agents, Izzies, foreigners, etc. are working against them - money talks everywhere, friends, and the Arabs are terminally mercantile, heh - the indicators are already there that intel has improved dramatically where the morons don't hold sway (i.e. intimidate whole pops, such as in Fallujah), and Sadr's little game just folded. Support for such attacks, especially in the South has just diminished in kind. The North, where the pipelines cross Sunni "tribal lands" is still problematic. We'll see if Alawi falls for the "Fallujah Solution" (heh) again. I think he'll stop the shit as soon as he has the forces. If Iran stayed the same (which it won't) and the populace was substantially "with" the Izzies (which it's not), then he'd be right - let's all just give up and go home. I don't buy his pathetic fatalism.

2) He also seems to presume that the oil sands of Saudi Arabia and Iran, now hostage to Islam, must and will remain so. I submit that's absurd - if push comes to shove, and the Izzies seem determined to do some shoveing - the West will not sit idly by wringing its hands. Access to the oil is not optional. Period. He's terminally PC, I guess - it has been obvious what must happen 'round these parts for nigh-on a year -- and prolly much longer in the Pentagon Planning groups. Sheesh! "Save me, the train is coming!", cried Nell.

3) He thoroughly wrings his hands about the US election and the Mad Mullah situation. Armageddon, huh? Mebbe he knows stuff no one else does, to wit: the Black Hat Bomb will be ready before November. Otherwise, WTF is this wailing and gnashing of teeth about? Given his other pronouncements, I'm thinking mebbe he doesn't know much about this, either. Certainly he knows less than those whose job it is to worry about such things.

4) He has, by indicating that all is lost because of the US election timing vs. the Black Hats, made a rather odd case, when you think about it... In effect, he has laid the world's fate at the door of the US. Ain't that funny? Dave, baby, chill. The big bad ugly Americans, uncouth and unsavory as they may seem, are not the nimcompoops that the Canucks seem to believe. Lay off the local news, son. It's rotting your brain.

Posted by .com 2004-06-27 12:39:18 PM|| 2004-06-27 12:39:18 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 I agree .com. Warren had another piece in Canadian papers last week arguing that the Iranian Ayatollahs were unstoppable, that they were smarter and more ruthless and better poker-players than anyone in the West. His basic point of view seems to be that every bad thing we could imagine will happen to us and that no miscalculation or error or over-reach will happen to the Ayatollahs. He's missing two points: first, dictatorships never win against democracies. Second, Bush is a real poker player.

Posted by Patrick 2004-06-27 4:34:32 PM|| [www.ubilibertas.com] 2004-06-27 4:34:32 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 Patrick - Lol! I missed it, but the notion that the Mad Mullahs are good poker players, since I think they are the most transparent bunch of goofs ever to attempt to "play" at foreign affairs / policy, is a scream! I would love a shot at the pile of cash they've stolen from the Iranians! Think we can whip up a Gulf High Stakes game? Mebbe a floating version anchored on the middle of the Gulf? I've got a pretty good stake and... Lol!

Posted by .com 2004-06-27 4:40:38 PM|| 2004-06-27 4:40:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 Texas Hold 'em, asshats?

Posted by Frank G 2004-06-27 4:42:17 PM|| 2004-06-27 4:42:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Domestic and U.S. offshore oil may have a gusher really soon, contingent on OPEC's #1 running on empty courtesy of their own creation, al-Qa'ida and Iranian involvement, in the biggest economic crude oil stab in the back in history.

Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-06-27 9:52:18 PM|| 2004-06-27 9:52:18 PM|| Front Page Top

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