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2004-12-30 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Indonesia Death Toll Expected To Exceed 400,000
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Posted by Steve 2004-12-30 2:55:23 PM|| || Front Page|| [11126 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Wow. The bidding has begun.
Posted by .com 2004-12-30 3:11:50 PM||   2004-12-30 3:11:50 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 .com: Wow. The bidding has begun.

When there's no free money on offer, the numbers reported tend to be a lot lower, since there's no incentive to inflate them.
Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-12-30 3:15:20 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2004-12-30 3:15:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 I wonder if this will quell the Aceh rebellion or will it gird it?
Posted by Thinesh Angomotch9753 2004-12-30 3:15:52 PM||   2004-12-30 3:15:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 Isn't Indonesia one of the most populous countries in the world?
Posted by Jules 187 2004-12-30 3:19:40 PM||   2004-12-30 3:19:40 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Hmmm... I think it was Hurricane Andrew that killed 50 Americans and caused $30 billion in damage. This one may have caused less monetary damage while killing, what, five orders of magnitude more people?

Life in those regions is indeed cheap. Not least because of the incompetence and corruption of their governments, which cannot provide even 1/10,000 the degree of prosperity and security we provide our citizens
Posted by lex 2004-12-30 3:22:53 PM||   2004-12-30 3:22:53 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 ZF - Precisely my meaning.
Posted by .com 2004-12-30 3:28:38 PM||   2004-12-30 3:28:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 Isn't Indonesia one of the most populous countries in the world?
2004 figures show population at around 239 million. They only have about 12% of arable land, given they are volcanic islands I'd guess that would be along the coast. So, the population would be clustered right where the waves could reach them. I'd say the 400K figure may be correct.
Posted by Steve  2004-12-30 3:31:22 PM||   2004-12-30 3:31:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 400K might be right. I doubt the death toll will ever be accurately known.

It is estimated that 60 million died in WWII. That is over a period from about 1939 to 1945 or about 6 years. 10,000,000 deaths per year is an average of about 27,397 deaths per day or about 191,781 deaths per week. Looks like nature wins this one.
Posted by John Q. Citizen 2004-12-30 3:44:14 PM||   2004-12-30 3:44:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Isn’t Indonesia one of the most populous countries in the world?

Indonesia is about the 5th most populous country in the world, and is the most populous “Muslim” country in the world -- although their form of Islam is heavily influenced by Hindu, Buddhist, and animist traditions and concepts. The Indonesian death toll could easily be 100-500K in immediate deaths, and double to triple that over the next few months from disease due to lack of infrastructure. I don’t think theses figures are inflations, given the population masses in that area, and the terrain.

Since Indonesia only became democratic about six years ago (following the departure of “lifer President” Suharto), Indonesia didn’t have a lot of infrastructure to begin with. Also, Aceh (the hardest hit area) has even poorer infrastructure because the central government has been waging war against seditionist/terrorist quasi-islamofascist rebels since the mid-1970s. What infrastructure existed along the Northwestern coast of Sumatra has been decimated by both the earthquake (with the epicenter less than 100 miles offshore), and the tsunami (that literally removed all traces of many villages).

Without water, electricity, roads, and basic sanitation, you can guess what the problems will be in a few weeks. Straddling the equator, the temperatures are very warm, and the air is quite humid. There will be no final, precise tally of the dead, because there is no central registry or other official way to track who is missing. If whole families perished (and they did), no one will really know everybody who is missing. Yes, corruption has to be watched against, but even before this earthquake the governor of Aceh was jailed by the central government on corruption charges. Indonesia is serious about eliminating Suharto era graft.

This is an opportunity to put cultures and traditions to the test. In the 1960s, upheaval in Indonesia resulted in large shifts in alliances. In the next few weeks, the people of Aceh will learn who their true friends are, and who has just been leading them by the nose over the past thirty years. I HOPE AND TRUST WE WILL BE GENEROUS. EVEN THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IS DROPPING ITS WAR FOOTING IN THE REGION AND MOVING TO HELP THE ACEHNESE. Social psychology teaches that the best way to eliminate hostility is to find a common enemy. Here, the appropriate enemy for the civilized world and the Acehnese to fight is the forces of nature and the rampage of disease.
Posted by cingold 2004-12-30 3:55:11 PM||   2004-12-30 3:55:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Here is a good set of pictures showing before and after the earthquake and tsunami in Aceh, Sumatra.
Posted by cingold 2004-12-30 4:22:46 PM||   2004-12-30 4:22:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 More before and after IKONOS satellite images showing danage in Aceh, northern Sumatra: Link 1 and Link 2. Hat tip to Reuters via Yahoo News.
Posted by cingold 2004-12-30 4:30:38 PM||   2004-12-30 4:30:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 The magnitude of this tragedy is mind boggling. America has always been generous and available to those suffering such tragedies. During Iran's earthquake, we were there to help despite political differences. When Mexico had a bad earthquake we were there. As the pres said we gave about 40 percent of what was given last year for aid.

The Norwegian guy from the UN was so full of s**t about our generosity. I don't see a lot of Muslim countries rushing to help out in this tragedy. We don't get a lot of sympathy or offers of help when we have disasters-natural or man made but I agree that we need to help these folks-both for humanitarian and political reasons.
Posted by John Q. Citizen 2004-12-30 4:35:49 PM||   2004-12-30 4:35:49 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 Cingold, that is all nice, you're trying to overlay concepts inherent in your culture on an entirely different civilization.

You simply underestimate the capacity of strains of Islam with jihadi tilt to erode any remnants of concepts of reciprocical human behavior, let alone traits like gratitude.

This mindset would manifest in more hatred, because to rely on help of infidels would be akin to losing face.
Posted by Bugaboo 2004-12-30 4:38:31 PM||   2004-12-30 4:38:31 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Here’s another before and after photo of Banda Aceh, Sumatra. Hat tip REUTERS/DigitalGlobe via Yahoo News.

I’ll stop now . . . sorry. There’s a lot of dead people.
Posted by cingold 2004-12-30 4:40:00 PM||   2004-12-30 4:40:00 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 Re #13. Cingold, that is all nice, you're trying to overlay concepts inherent in your culture on an entirely different civilization.

This could be true . . . I want to be open minded.

Here’s my culture and background: I’m a trial attorney, with a Master’s degree in counseling and developmental psychology. I spent my childhood growing up in Sumatra, Indonesia. Indonesian is a native, although rusty, tongue. I speak with a distinct Medan accent.

I think you are wrong about Indonesians, the Acehnese, and how profoundly positive an effect our typical American largess will have at this point in time.
Posted by cingold 2004-12-30 4:44:56 PM||   2004-12-30 4:44:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 To save on bandwidth, for what it's worth, here's a prior thread about the Indonesian cultural and political climate.
Posted by cingold 2004-12-30 4:55:41 PM||   2004-12-30 4:55:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 :) My mouth piece.
Not cheap, but worth it. :)
Posted by Shipman 2004-12-30 5:36:35 PM||   2004-12-30 5:36:35 PM|| Front Page Top

23:57 Bomb-a-rama
23:50 Zenster
23:50 WingedAvenger
23:46 WingedAvenger
23:42 lex
23:40 lex
23:39 WingedAvenger
23:39 Bomb-a-rama
23:35 Poison Reverse
23:34 lex
23:32 lex
23:31 Sherry
23:31 WingedAvenger
23:29 lex
23:27 WingedAvenger
23:27 lex
23:23 Capt America
23:22 Poison Reverse
23:20 Sock Puppet of Doom
23:19 lex
23:17 lex
23:16 WingedAvenger
23:10 WingedAvenger
23:09 Capt America









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