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2004-09-29 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Intense Fighting Reported Throughout Iran
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Posted by Anonymoose 2004-09-29 4:36:53 PM|| || Front Page|| [11129 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 It will be interesting to see Sadr's funding and recruitment dry up if this is really wide spread and on a large scale. I'm not holding my breath though - got caught up in this same kind of story this spring.
Posted by Yosemite Sam 2004-09-29 4:51:40 PM||   2004-09-29 4:51:40 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 Who knows, maybe Taher (equivalent of Joe regular) is aware what is at stake. Mullahs still in power means a certain destruction in few short years. Taher does not have much time.
Posted by Memesis 2004-09-29 5:04:30 PM||   2004-09-29 5:04:30 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 Meh. Boy, meet wolf.
Posted by Mitch H.  2004-09-29 5:05:32 PM|| [http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/]  2004-09-29 5:05:32 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 24- hour rule, people.
Posted by N Guard 2004-09-29 5:25:43 PM||   2004-09-29 5:25:43 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Not only 24 hr rule, but if this thing catches on, will it have enough momentum to take it over the top and take down the Black Turbans?
Posted by Alaska Paul 2004-09-29 5:31:37 PM||   2004-09-29 5:31:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Once and if it gets momentum, the BT's are frozen elements.
Posted by Memesis 2004-09-29 5:40:58 PM||   2004-09-29 5:40:58 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 If it takes off plan on an influx of "foreign fighters" who are clients of the Black Turban bunch.
Posted by Sock Puppet of Doom  2004-09-29 5:44:04 PM|| [http://www.slhess.com]  2004-09-29 5:44:04 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 If true this can be nothing but good..

Time to seal off the the sunni triangle - no vote, no reconstruction aid, no power, no water and concentrate on iran.

Give these people a helping hand. It may well turn out that we do not need to do a bagdad style sprint for tehran.
Posted by Dan 2004-09-29 5:49:51 PM||   2004-09-29 5:49:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 SPoD, they are already here, most of the RG units are foreign mercenaries. It would be intresting to see where military stands, if things heat up. My bet would be that air force would join the rebels. The army may follow. Navy is small and inconsequential.
Posted by Memesis 2004-09-29 5:57:27 PM||   2004-09-29 5:57:27 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Now this is from the Debka-file newsletters so a liberal sprinkling (several shovels) of salt is recomended:

"A. ... US special forces had begun training members of the Iranian opposition at a base in Tampa, Florida. The new units are learning tactics for waging a guerrilla war inside Iran to topple the government. The United States is well aware that unlike Afghanistan, there is no need for direct US military intervention to overthrow the ayatollahs regime in Tehran. With enough help, Iranian opposition groups can do the job on their own and expect many ordinary Iranians to flock to an insurrection. The veteran Mojaheddin-e Khalqh, the best-organized Iranian opposition group, had thousands of fighters in Iraq before the US-led invasion last year. More than 4,500 of its combatants are now in the Ashraf military base northeast of Baghdad under tight US supervision. The division-size force has fully stocked weapons depots, maintained by American crews, at its disposal near the Iranian-Iraqi border.

B. Washington also leaked to Tehran information about an operations center set up in the Iraqi Shiite shrine town of Najef as a facility for Iranian clerics in opposition to the Iranian regime. They include Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Jalal Eddin Taheri and even the late Ayatollah Khomeini’s grandson, Hassan, who fled abroad last year and even reached the United States before turning his back on the alien West and returning home. The Americans are taking pains to ensure that Najaf can become a safe base of operations for Iranian clerics prepared to move to the city. Khomeini himself spent many years of his exile in Najef, whence he waged his successful struggle against the Shah. If the US plan is implemented, Najef could become a particularly effective center of subversion against the religious leadership in Iran and be able to challenge the religious supremacy of Qom, the Iranian holy city and spiritual base for senior Shiite clerics.

C. The Americans have deployed forces in western Afghanistan, near the border with Iran, and established a military base at Shinada after deposing Ismail Khan as governor of the city of Herat. Iranian intelligence is convinced, and has passed on its assessment to the leadership in Tehran, that US agents arranged the murder of Khan’s son and incited local tribesmen to attack the governor’s militia. Afterward, US units and troops loyal to the central government in Kabul moved into the area on the pretext of protecting Khan. At the same time, they offered the governor the post of industry minister in the Afghan government, effectively persuading him to order his men to lay down their arms. As a result, US forces are out in strength on the Afghan-Iranian border, ready to go into action at short notice."

Sorry for the long post, its from the news-letter so I could not link.
Posted by Heysenbergwashere 2004-09-29 6:01:32 PM||   2004-09-29 6:01:32 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 HWH, thanks.
Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-09-29 6:12:01 PM||   2004-09-29 6:12:01 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Been looking around and found a couple of things:
Exile call prompts Iran protests
A call from a US-based Iranian TV personality has prompted thousands of Iranians to protest for more freedoms. People took to the streets of the capital, Tehran, and other cities on Sunday after Ahura Pirouz Khaleghi Yazdi urged protests across Iran. The exile has predicted Iran's Islamic government will fall on 1 October. Nobody had heard of Mr Yazdi until a few months ago when he set up a satellite channel in California to try to overthrow the Iranian government. Since then he has become a hot topic of conversation both among disaffected Iranians and exiled opposition groups. For several weeks he has been declaring that he intends to return to Iran on 1 October to end the rule of Islamic clerics. He has called on the Iranian diaspora to accompany him in his so-called liberation flight and has urged his supporters inside the country to stage protests.
He is advocating peaceful means and civil disobedience.

He's a Zoroastrian mystic as well. And you also have the Islamic fund failures:
Clashes as Iran Islamic fund fails
One person was killed and 18 injured in clashes in Iran linked to the collapse of an Islamic loan fund in Nourabad, Iranian state television has reported. The violence is reported to have taken place after angry customers protested outside state offices in the city. The Zolfaghar-Ali fund was declared bankrupt, leaving some customers unable to reclaim funds they had deposited. One report said Nourabad residents had 360bn riyals ($41m; £23m) tied up in the fund. A Fars state official told Iranian television that security forces had intervened to quell the protests and calm had been restored. Damage was caused to some buildings by "a group of agitators and opportunists", said Abdollah Shahasani, head of political affairs in the office of the Fars governor general. He said the fund's managers had been arrested and a special committee was investigating customer complaints. Similarly structured Islamic funds allow depositors after several months to take interest-free loans of double the amount deposited. Fund managers invest the cash deposited but can be vulnerable to a run on the fund if too many depositors try to take loans or withdraw their deposits at once.
Several such funds have collapsed in recent months, causing street protests, AFP news agency said.

Holy man promising to return, bank failures, may be a tipping point. Too bad there is no honest news agency reporting from there.
Posted by Steve  2004-09-29 7:17:07 PM||   2004-09-29 7:17:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 Much as I want to believe the Revolution is beginning,I cannot forget the similar stories this past Spring and how this Summer the people would revolt against the Mullahs,because all the students would be out of school.
Posted by Flash Whagum2399 2004-09-29 7:33:55 PM||   2004-09-29 7:33:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Unless we're stirring the pot, as Debka claims, this one is vaporware too.

The Mullahs are tenacious. It's gonna take more than some kids in coffee shops and chat rooms to take them down.

The Debka rumor about the US training them is the more encouraging rumor on this thread.
Posted by JAB 2004-09-29 7:48:45 PM||   2004-09-29 7:48:45 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 if we're not stirring the pot, and broadcasting VOA-Iran at full-tilt anti BT, we're missing out. Our CIA may be too busy undermining W to do this necessary work? The mullahs just need a push I think....like a couple assassinations of threatening loudmouths?
Posted by Frank G  2004-09-29 8:12:54 PM||   2004-09-29 8:12:54 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by JJ TROLL 2004-09-29 8:24:07 PM||   2004-09-29 8:24:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 idiot cleanup, aisle 16!
Posted by Frank G  2004-09-29 8:28:45 PM||   2004-09-29 8:28:45 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Prolly too late in the year. Going to wait till spring when everybody's got cabin fever.
Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-09-29 8:44:42 PM||   2004-09-29 8:44:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 I would like to see freedom in Iran but I don't see how the MEK can help. I would think that a cult of Maoist-Islamists would be better off on-ice than encouraged.

If Iran does rise up against the mullahs, I hope to have 24 hours notice so that I can store gasoline in every possible container that I own.
Posted by Super Hose 2004-09-29 8:47:11 PM||   2004-09-29 8:47:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 Super, you see the petrol potentials very clearly ,,keep the tank on full!
Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-09-29 9:45:19 PM||   2004-09-29 9:45:19 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 Also: According to the Oil and Gas Journal (1/1/04), Iran holds 125.8 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, roughly 10% of the world's total, up from 90 billion barrels in 2003 (note: in July 2004, Iran's oil minister stated that the country's proven oil reserves had increased again, to 132 billion barrels, following new discoveries in the Kushk and Hosseineih fields in Khuzestan province).
Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-09-29 9:47:50 PM||   2004-09-29 9:47:50 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 Mark, if this were to go down, I wonder whether the anti-mullah resistence will be organized enough to take and protect the oil fields. I remember talking to an Iranian kid in the late 70's who says that they locally organized to protect the equipment when the Shah was ousted.
Posted by Super Hose 2004-09-29 9:54:26 PM||   2004-09-29 9:54:26 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 I hope that the US is making plans for the oil field contingencies. I sense a lot of special forces needs and I wonder how thin we are going to be. We have not seen remarks about air movements to the AO, but airlift may be paced to avoid being above the radar screen. I am sure that we are ramping up for eventualities, given the stakes involved. The Norks are contained somewhat, but the Iranians are such nutcases that they would give a nuke to a proxy or something else mad and stupid that the whole world cannot afford to have.
Posted by Alaska Paul 2004-09-29 10:42:48 PM||   2004-09-29 10:42:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#24 [Iranian] Navy is small and inconsequential.

About 14,000 personnel, mainly naval infantry. The navy may also control anti-ship missile installations. However, in the past they tended to be 'professional' in their encounters with USN assets. Even if they remain neutral, that's 14K less troops for the government and a bit less worry for sea traffic.
Posted by Pappy 2004-09-29 11:13:10 PM||   2004-09-29 11:13:10 PM|| Front Page Top

#25 Pappy, ye'r right. If they get on the rebel side, they could tie up a substantial number of RG goons.
Posted by Memesis 2004-09-29 11:17:56 PM||   2004-09-29 11:17:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#26 ..And, speaking of Iran Navy, they would be probably best suited to protect oil fields. Once again, that is if they side with anti-mullah rebels.
Posted by Memesis 2004-09-29 11:21:51 PM||   2004-09-29 11:21:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#27 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by JJ 2004-09-29 8:24:07 PM||   2004-09-29 8:24:07 PM|| Front Page Top

20:24 JJ
10:52 JINSA
09:53 Heartless Bastard
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20:16 Heartless Bastard
00:28 007
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00:16 Anymoose
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10:25 Floting Clanter5218
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00:24 Ricky bin Ricardo (Abu Babaloo)
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13:36 lex
10:41 lex









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