Article

2005-08-28 Caribbean-Latin America

China, Venezuela firms to co-develop oilfields

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Posted by Anonymoose 2005-08-28 00:02|| || Front Page|| [11130 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 In order to expand business in China, PDVSA set up a branch office in Beijing on Monday.

hopen our enormously effective State D and CIA are at least cooking up some chop suey ops.

Posted by yellow peril 2005-08-28 08:17|| 2005-08-28 08:17|| Front Page Top

#2 YP: hopen our enormously effective State D and CIA are at least cooking up some chop suey ops.

It strikes me that the more the Chinese expand their commercial operations overseas, the more vulnerable they are in wartime. At the moment, this is possibly a good thing for them, since they may be getting commodities on preferential terms in exchange for huge bribes. The problem with artificially low prices is that China's economy will get used to these prices and use much more of these commodities than they would at international prices. What happens if a conflict breaks out over Taiwan? An American blockade would suddenly cause the price of these commodities (to Chinese manufacturers) to skyrocket as imports slow to a trickle. The transition from sub-market prices to prices way above market (smugglers do charge a lot for their services) could cause a serious economic contraction.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-08-28 10:45|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-08-28 10:45|| Front Page Top

#3 ZF, In the event a conflict breaks out over Taiwan, I got a feeling the Chinese are going to wish their worst problem was increased prices.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-08-28 10:48|| 2005-08-28 10:48|| Front Page Top

#4 MD: ZF, In the event a conflict breaks out over Taiwan, I got a feeling the Chinese are going to wish their worst problem was increased prices.

My feeling is that the rules of engagement are going to be severely restricted - on both sides - to avoid triggering a larger war. We're neither interested in taking out Chinese cities nor in losing our cities over Taiwan. Ditto with the Chinese - and regaining a Taiwan in ruins on top of that would be a Pyrrhic victory and probably trigger a serious backlash even among the most ardent of Chinese nationalists. I think these commercial engagements are an indication that China is all bark and no bite on the issue of Taiwan. (This is not to say that they wouldn't annex Taiwan if the costs were minimal - but the cost-benefit calculation just isn't in their favor at the moment - and they undoubtedly take that into account).

It's nothing quite as nebulous as international trade causing them to think peaceful thoughts. It's more that their commercial interactions reflect a leadership decision not to rock the boat over Taiwan, except rhetorically. And the rhetoric has to be really heated to make up for the fact that they've decided to sit on their hands.

Any Chinese government that unilaterally abandoned the Taiwan project would find itself out on the street - ousted by more belligerent factions. Popular sentiment in China for re-acquiring Taiwan is simply too strong for such a policy change.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-08-28 11:26|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-08-28 11:26|| Front Page Top

#5 I think the alliance will have to prove its solvency first. China has the worst habit of breaking every clause of every trade agreement they sign. The question is will Chavez be willing to put up with their shit? It won't be long before china is breaking their deals and abusing them. Africa thinks they are going to be buddies with china, but it is hard to deal with imperialists and they could not resist if they wanted once china gets it's foot in the door. So who do you think they will come running to for help at that point? The good ol U.N.

Posted by bigjim-ky 2005-08-28 11:38|| 2005-08-28 11:38|| Front Page Top

#6 I think these commercial engagements are an indication that China is all bark and no bite on the issue of Taiwan.

? You mean in the short term?

Posted by Shipman 2005-08-28 14:47|| 2005-08-28 14:47|| Front Page Top

#7 Shipman: ? You mean in the short term?

Maybe even in the long term. Taiwan is not a static situation. The leadership sends mixed messages - to assuage both domestic and international doves and hawks - and perhaps because even they don't know what they're going to do from one day to the next. The fact is that any armed effort against Taiwan will be extremely expensive to China in terms of the following - (1) Taiwanese infrastructure destroyed, (2) Taiwanese and other foreign investors fleeing China and (3) skilled Taiwanese fleeing abroad. China also runs the risk of a naval embargo for the duration of the conflict.*

For China to completely avoid an embargo, it will need a blue water fleet that can project power all the way to each of its commodities suppliers. This is why from the standpoint of a Taiwan invasion, China's recent commodities deals make no sense. They are deliberately exposing themselves to supply disruptions.

* Perhaps the Chinese believe that no naval embargo will happen. The Korean War was in this respect unusual. North Vietnam was not the subject of a naval embargo, even though Nixon did mine Haiphong harbor, in the later stages of the war.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-08-28 16:03|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-08-28 16:03|| Front Page Top

#8 It's one thing to buy commodities from traders, and quite another to pay cold, hard cash for mining rights. You pay cash on the barrel to buy from traders. Plonking down cash right now for commodities you may not get to see in the future is a little risky, when you know your access could be shut down by the US Navy.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-08-28 16:12|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-08-28 16:12|| Front Page Top

#9 Imperial Japan was in this same situation in the '30s/early '40s; they benefitted more from commercial links than going thru the expense of locking down Pacific resources via military means.

Unfortunately, the Japanese ultimately decided that the cost of comquest and occupation was worth bearing for the benefit of full control of the Pacific's resources.

It would be nice to think that the Chinese will be more pragmatic in this regard, but history and human nature don't provide much comfort on this point.

Japan was ultimately defeated, but it took a long, bloody war and the A-Bomb to defeat them. I don't have a good feeling about where all this is headed.

Posted by dushan 2005-08-28 16:44|| 2005-08-28 16:44|| Front Page Top

#10 Maybe they're aiming for a Hong Kong-type solution.

Posted by Rafael 2005-08-28 17:00|| 2005-08-28 17:00|| Front Page Top

#11 Weird thoughts are running through my mind today.

Offer a deal to the entire mation of Taiwan that the USA will be glad to relocate them lock-stock-and machine tools to the backward island of Cuba.

Kill two birds (Or more) with one stone, China can have the Barren Island (Brainpower is the commodity here) and Fidel will shit as the rest of Cuba, all Cuban people, and the entire nation of Taiwan hauls CubaWan out of the mid 50's and into the 21st century.

Looks like a win-win for the USA, a smack in the face for China, and a prosperous boost for the entire Gulf/Carribbean area.

Except that China will scream bloody murder I see no real downside.

Posted by Redneck Jim 2005-08-28 17:12|| 2005-08-28 17:12|| Front Page Top

#12 I think y'all are missing the obvious.

Right now what _was_ the US's major oil supplier is now a) controlled by a belligerent dictator, b) producing at about 2/3 of what it should have been, since said dictator is incompetent, and c) what production is remaining is owned lock stock and barrel by a possible co-belligerent, and could be destroyed instead of retaken.

There's no "open market" involved; US companies aren't invited anymore, and are discouraged from investing in Venezuela, but the Chinese _government_ oil companies are welcome.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2005-08-28 19:20|| 2005-08-28 19:20|| Front Page Top

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