Article

2008-08-14 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

A CZAR IS BORN: BAD VLAD WINS WAR, DUPES WEST & PROVES HE'S GENIUS

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Posted by ed 2008-08-14 12:13|| || Front Page|| [11130 views ] Top

#1 If assessing the strategic env correctly (Euro non-reaction, playing the world media, etc) is genius, than anybody has been paying even cursory attention to world events in the past decade is a genius.

Posted by Carl in N.H. 2008-08-14 12:27|| 2008-08-14 12:27|| Front Page Top

#2 Hurrah, I'm a genius! Thank you for that bump to my self-esteem, Carl. ;-)

Posted by trailing wife ">trailing wife 2008-08-14 12:32|| 2008-08-14 12:32|| Front Page Top

#3 George Bush said he looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul. He failed to say it was dark and evil.

Posted by JohnQC 2008-08-14 13:03|| 2008-08-14 13:03|| Front Page Top

#4 Its easy to look good if pitted against the Euro-Flakes and a United States locked in a multi-generational war against Islamist fanaticism.

Posted by Ptah">Ptah 2008-08-14 13:19|| http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org]">[http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org] 2008-08-14 13:19|| Front Page Top

#5 Actually, I think the outcome is for the best. NATO and non-NATO members alike have learned that Uncle Sam won't always come riding to the rescue, so they'd better arm up or prepare to become provinces of whatever big power comes along. All of America's allies have learned that Uncle Sam won't use his big guns to help them settle territorial disputes to their advantage. And Russia has regained a little of its pride, and perhaps gotten a little something to salve the sting of being ignored over Kosovo. On this last point, only time will tell.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2008-08-14 13:37|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2008-08-14 13:37|| Front Page Top

#6 I'm with Zhang on this. You will see a lot more military self reliance especially in middle Europe.

Posted by phil_b 2008-08-14 13:54|| 2008-08-14 13:54|| Front Page Top

#7 Equally as remarkable was the Kremlin's ability to lead the global media by the nose.

Big deal. I got a six year old niece that could probably do that.

Posted by tu3031 2008-08-14 13:56|| 2008-08-14 13:56|| Front Page Top

#8 I wonder how this will play out with Japan and our other allies. (Hello S. Korea..)

Posted by CrazyFool 2008-08-14 13:58|| 2008-08-14 13:58|| Front Page Top

#9 the problem with that ZF, is that most of them cant stand up to Russia alone. Its a basic free rider problem. POland cant (probably) beat Russia. they need backup. Who? Why should UK do it, when germany could? Why should Germany do it when UK could (And when germany relies on Russian gas, and doesnt like the Poles anyway) Self reliance works for some things, not this.

As hard as jawboning the Euros to spend more on defense is, I doubt that Russian victories and US withdrawl is really more effective. But this is academic as far as Georgia is concerned.

Posted by liberalhawk 2008-08-14 14:45|| 2008-08-14 14:45|| Front Page Top

#10 I doubt seriously that this will rouse Euro's elites out of their intellectual and moral torpor.

Posted by Steve White 2008-08-14 14:58|| 2008-08-14 14:58|| Front Page Top

#11 elites?

You think the populace will start rallying for more defense spending, higher taxes and or lower social services?

I understand the idea that the euro elites are more 'left' than the electorates on issues like guns, death penalty, abortion, immigration. But I very much doubt they are to the 'left' of their peoples on defense spending. If they are ive seen no evidence of it.

Posted by liberalhawk 2008-08-14 15:02|| 2008-08-14 15:02|| Front Page Top

#12 I have to agree with LH. When there has been talk of cutting social bennies because of cost, that party is rapidly thrown out of office. The Europeans want their cradle-to-grave health care and they want the US to pay for their defense.
If the US withdrew and became isolationist, a strong military country would conquer the rest of Europe with little problem. Unfortunately, that is the only way I can see the Europeans taking responsibility for their own defense is to forced to, or succumb to another power that will take their resources for its own use.

Posted by DarthVader 2008-08-14 15:11|| 2008-08-14 15:11|| Front Page Top

#13 What still bugs me, is the unanswered question of What were Putins goals? and Did he achieve them?

1. Control over the BP pipeline? Epic fail. With US "humanitarian aid" in place, I think it's impossible for them to make another grab for it.
2. Absorption of Georgia? Possible fail. Time will tell on this one. He has weakened and trampled all over the independent nation. Will SO and Ahk. remain in his realm of control? More than likely.
3. Inviting the West to play The Game in order to ascertain strength, resolution and capabilities? Definite success. Although, he may have misunderestimated the US and GWB.

4. Alienate Old Europe, New Europe, China, the US, NATO and the UN? Smashing success. :D I hear our sale of ABM systems is going through to Poland and now Turkey is shopping for some sales.

It still doesnt make sense that he would risk so much for so little gain. Maybe it is just for show with the homefolks and to consolidate his power base. *shrug*

Also, I wish I knew how Iran and Israel play into this. (Yes I have some ideas, but my Tom Clancy/007 influenced mine has crazy visions of nukes going off in Saudi due to wahabbis)

Posted by Anon4021 2008-08-14 15:26|| 2008-08-14 15:26|| Front Page Top

#14 the immediate goal was to toss Saak out and get a friendly regime instead. That gives them effective control of the pipeline, it removes the annoyance of Saak, and more important it shows who is strong, that relying on the west is a mistake, and lots of other lessons they want to teach.

If Georgia is badly hurt but Saak survives, the lessons are only half taught.

Whether Saak WILL survive is something we dont know yet, and that we still may be able to influence.

Posted by liberalhawk 2008-08-14 15:49|| 2008-08-14 15:49|| Front Page Top

#15 Putin's plan was to start the war when the Iran action was imminent or in progress. Saaky crossed him with a pre-emptive assault on Tskhinvali.
To what degree it was a Georgian initiative or a coordinated effort, hard to tell -- I tend to think that the coordination was more likely than not. (There is a lot of indications that this is precisely what happened. At some point when I've a bit of time, I may put it together for RB perusal).

Putin can't use this stratagem again. It's been blown.

Eastern Europe got their suspicion about Russian duplicity confirmed and will act accordingly. Chances for Putin to come with some brilliant strategy to reabsorb former satellites got just diminished substantially as the element of surprise is now lost. The facade is torn and naked truth is for all to see.

On the economic front, a lot advantageous deals will be taken away and agreements canceled.

Yea, brilliant, Pooty, brilliant!

He lost big time. Thus spake Spike Uniter.

Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-14 17:15|| 2008-08-14 17:15|| Front Page Top

#16 Interesting how everyone talks of Poland, Germany the UK and nobody has mentioned the EU. Shouldn't these nations be defending each other automatically because of the EU nonsense? I mean what's the point if not to ensure Poland is safe from invasion.

Yeah I know Georgia's not a member of the EU. I'm pretty sure Poland is though, right?

Posted by rjschwarz 2008-08-14 17:23|| 2008-08-14 17:23|| Front Page Top

#17 rjschwarz, what, are you insane?
You want to apply logic to the EU concept? Heresy! ;-)

Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-14 18:01|| 2008-08-14 18:01|| Front Page Top

#18 One additional comment... The eastern European countries will, no doubt, enact laws that could reduce the prospect that a minority can be consisting of holders of foreign passports (specifically the Russian minority... "you don't like it, you're free to leave!"). Discriminatory? Yewbetcha! But better be safe than sorry.

Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-14 18:09|| 2008-08-14 18:09|| Front Page Top

#19 Honestly, why not take a long term gamble here? Russia is a dying country (and Putin knows it). Either by Chinese invasion or simple suicide, Russia won't be the same country 20 years down the road.

Putin's been pulling these shenanigans since several years ago (the poisoning of the Ukrainian president, and the rich guy in England). That didn't draw much attention from the world community, so why would an invasion of some country that most people think is the home of CNN, the Braves and Adult Swim?

The bottom line, let's let Russia think he won this round, let him keep trying to rebuild his outdated military, then eventually when the ChiComs take Siberia, two equally evil powers can duke it out.

Posted by MoreScotch4Me 2008-08-14 23:23|| 2008-08-14 23:23|| Front Page Top

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